What to expect from Conor McGregor's return against Max Holloway at UFC 329 -- and an early prediction

Conor McGregor's UFC return is set. On Saturday, UFC announced that McGregor would return in the main event of UFC 329 to face Max Holloway in a welterweight bout.

McGregor is still the biggest star in the game, but it's hard to suggest expectations should be high at this point in his career, even against an opponent he defeated in 2013 in what was McGregor's second UFC fight.

McGregor has not fought since suffering a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in July 2021 in a bout where McGregor's leg snapped. That rematch came after Poirier stopped McGregor with punches the year prior.

In fact, McGregor has just one win since 2016, a 40-second TKO over Donald Cerrone in January 2020 in the midst of Cerrone's career-ending six-fight losing skid.

In his prime, McGregor was a truly special fighter, blending speed and power in the striking game with rare physical attributes. He's now fighting at a higher weight class than his prime, dealing with five years of "rust" at 37 years old, with a 1-3 record in his last four trips to the Octagon and a lopsided boxing loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. preceding those four fights.

McGregor has the money to pay for the best camp in the world, and if he has the desire to put in the work, he's still a dangerous fighter. But reality is impossible to escape in the fight game, even for the greats.

Holloway is coming off a lopsided loss as he defended the symbolic BMF championship against Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC 326. That night, Holloway was unable to escape the takedowns and grappling of the far bigger Oliveira, who piled up round after round through ground control.

While size will be a factor when Holloway meets McGregor -- this is Holloway's first fight as a welterweight after spending the vast majority of his career at featherweight -- McGregor is unlikely to have any interest in fighting on the ground. In fact, the last time McGregor successfully took another fighter down was in his fight with Diego Brandao in 2014.

Interestingly, the only other UFC fight where McGregor executed a takedown was against Holloway, where McGregor succeeded on four of five takedown attempts for just under 6:30 of ground control time.

Early prediction for Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway

Despite the loss to Oliveira and McGregor's win in their first fight, Holloway is a -455 favorite. That's for all the reasons outlined above with McGregor's recent run of losses and time out of the Octagon.

Unless McGregor is going to surprise the world and focus on grappling, looking to use his larger frame (though Holloway is slightly taller) to try to dominate physically and follow the blueprint of the first fight, this is a fairly easy fight to see how it plays out.

As McGregor has bulked up while moving up in weight, he has looked a bit stiffer and slower. McGregor still flashed moments of his old abilities in the first Poirier fight, using solid head movement and good angles to land jabs and straights. Despite that, McGregor's cardio looked a bit suspect, as well as being stiffer and less fluid than he was at his best, which is part of the reason Poirier was able to beat up his legs to open up shots to the head.

If Holloway is able to carry the weight fine at 170 pounds, he will present a lot of problems for this version of McGregor. Holloway is a fluid striker who is happy to mix in attacks to the leg (Holloway landed 31 shots to the leg against Poirier at UFC 318).

McGregor has the power to end a fight, but he will have to wade through fluid combination striking from Holloway, who won't also be trying to shake off five years of rust. Early prediction: Max Holloway via TKO4