UFC 323 predictions, odds, best bets: Merab Dvalishvili prop, Alexandre Pantoja among top picks to consider

The penultimate UFC event of 2025 takes place on Saturday night, when UFC 323 lands at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The card is headlined by Merab Dvalishvili's quest to set the record for most consecutive bantamweight title defenses as he faces Petr Yan in a rematch.

Dvalishvili defeated Yan by decision in March 2023. That fight marked former bantamweight champion Yan's third consecutive defeat. Since then, Yan turned his career around and enters Saturday's fight riding a three-fight winning streak. After losing his first two UFC fights, Dvalishvili has won 14 consecutive fights, including winning the title from Sean O'Malley in September 2024 and defending the title three times thus far in 2025.

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In the night's co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja will defend the flyweight championship against Joshua Van. Pantoja is on a dominant run, winning the title in July 2023 and making four successful defenses to date. Van has had a breakout 2025, winning three fights between March and June to earn a shot at the title.

At 35, the ageless Alexandre Pantoja wants to be recognized as the best in MMA before he calls it quits

Brian Campbell

As with any UFC pay-per-view event, there's sure to be plenty of action at the sportsbook window, and with that in mind, we are taking a look at the best bet to make for every main card fight at UFC 323.

After going 3-2 for our best bets for UFC 322, our 2025 record sits at 30-22. We'll look keep our roll going to close out the year on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let's take a look at this week's picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov

 Jan Blachowicz moneyline (-130)

In addition to being the more technical and well-rounded fighter, Blachowicz has the clear edge in higher-level experience. Guskov is a guy who can end a fight in a flash, but he does so by relying on walking forward and firing heavy right hands. That has worked more than it has not for Guskov, but when it doesn't work, he has nights like he had in his UFC debut against Volkan Oezdemir, where he walked forward into big punches the entire fight. Guskov has rattled off four consecutive stoppage victories since that night, but Blachowicz is a big step up, even if Blachowicz has gone 0-2-1 in his three most recent fights. Blachowicz has rounded out his game enough that he should be able to mix strong counterstriking with the threat of takedowns to edge out the win, so long as he avoids eating the one big shot Guskov will be looking to unload.

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott

Fight to end by decision (-225)

The loss to Raoni Barcelos was a bad night for Talbott, but that felt more like an aberration than who Talbott is as a fighter. Talbott has a solid striking game, where he throws shots with creativity and speed. Talbott's grappling is solid outside of holes in his defensive wrestling that Barcelos was able to exploit. Talbott looked much better coming back from that loss in his clear win over Felipe Lima. Cejudo at his best probably beats Talbott, but Cejudo's best days are behind him as he's on a three-fight losing skid and seems to have less explosiveness in his striking. Despite his Olympic credentials, Cejudo has never been at his best as a straight-up wrestler in the Octagon. Talbott's ability to grapple off his back, combined with his length and striking, should be enough to get the win. Despite that, the better bet here seems to be the fight going to the decision, with both fighters talented enough to drag things out to the scorecards.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira

Brandon Moreno moneyline (+110)

Taira is a good fighter, to be clear. His lone loss came two fights ago with a split decision defeat to Brandon Royval. Moreno also dropped a split to Royval, that loss coming three fights ago. Moreno's list of big wins is clearly more impressive than that of Taira, so this becomes a question of whether Taira is ready to break through into the elite of the UFC flyweight division. The fact that you can get Moreno as a slight underdog feels good here. At his best, Moreno is dynamic and able to take over a fight anywhere it ends up. Taira has every chance of winning this fight -- and it should be a great fight to watch -- but Moreno's skills combined with an attractive line at +110 is enough to fire a bet his direction.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja moneyline (-250)

Pantoja comes in at -250, so as heavy a favorite as we allow in best bets. At 24, Van feels like a future champion, but this is the present. And, as of now, Pantoja is king of the flyweights. Pantoja is far more proven as a finisher against UFC-level competition, with eight finishes in 17 UFC fights (47%). Van, meanwhile, has only picked up two finishes in nine trips to the Octagon (22%). Pantoja has also done that against higher-level competition than Van has faced in his career. Pantoja has the wrestling and grappling to nullify Van's sharp striking, which is why Pantoja via submission (+150) is the most likely outcome according to the oddsmakers. Given a decision is also in play, we'll go with Pantoja to win, rather than betting on a submission, but Pantoja could certainly find that submission somewhere over five rounds if you're feeling frisky.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

Merab Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (+450)

Dvalishvili is looking for his fourth bantamweight title defense of 2025, a torrid pace for any UFC champion. That's probably the biggest concern for the champion heading into a rematch of a fight he won 50-45 across the board the first time. In that first meeting, Dvalishvili shot a record 49 takedown attempts, completing 11. Despite not winning a round, Yan's ability to stuff nearly 80% of Dvalishvili's takedowns is why some are interested in the rematch. Dvalishvili is -395 to win, and he should be expected to get the victory unless a fourth weight cut in a single calendar year has him physically diminished. I have a feeling Dvalishvili will be out to prove a point against Yan. Dvalishvili wants to be the greatest bantamweight of all time and could set the record for consecutive title defenses in the division on Saturday. Look for Dvalishvili to find the finish somewhere across five rounds.