UFC 324 predictions, odds, best bets: Paddy Pimblett, Sean O'Malley among top picks to consider on Saturday

Saturday marks the first UFC event of the year, as well as the first UFC event of the Paramount Era, when UFC 324 comes to Las Vegas. The stacked card is headlined by an interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.

Gaethje has already held the interim lightweight title once in his career, as well as holding the ceremonial BMF title, but has never managed to hold an undisputed UFC championship. Regaining the interim title on Saturday is likely Gaethje's last path to finally achieving that feat.

To do so, Gaethje will have to get past a rising star in Pimblett, who is undefeated in his Octagon career and looking to score the biggest win of his career when he faces one of the most exciting fighters in MMA history.

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The rest of the card is loaded with former champions, rising contenders and familiar names.

As with any UFC pay-per-view event, there's sure to be plenty of action at the sportsbook window, and with that in mind, we are taking a look at the best bet to make for every main card fight at UFC 324.  

UFC 324: Now more mature, Paddy Pimblett can make good on lofty expectations he had upon his UFC debut

Brent Brookhouse

After going 31-25 for our best bets in 2025, we'll look keep our roll going to start the year on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let's take a look at this week's picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva

Jean Silva via KO/TKO/DQ or submission +120

Silva is a -258 favorite and you can get a line on him to win via either KO or decision at -250. Still, it seems the value is in taking Silva by some form of stoppage. Allen is a tough fighter who has never been stopped in his career. But Silva is nasty and dynamic in his attack, presenting a lot of problems for opponents. Allen has also been sidelined since a July 2024 win over Giga Chikadze. Coming back after a year and a half on the sidelines and having to face someone who brings the kind of wild pace that Silva does is a big ask. Silva's game is a little too wild at times, and Diego Lopes delivered a crushing reality check with a TKO win over Silva in September, but Silva has the right kind of opportunity to bounce back in a big way against Allen, who has lost two of his three most recent fights.

Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas

Natalia Silva via decision (-225)

The line has moved slightly, with Namajunas having been around +320 a few days ago and now sitting at +300. This is a tough fight for the multiple-time former strawweight champion. Silva is on an absolute tear right now, with a 7-0 record in the Octagon and back-to-back wins over former UFC champions Jessica Andrade and Alexa Grasso. Namajunas' best chance to win is to get the fight to the ground, but Silva has shown excellent takedown defense against very good fighters. Namajunas has found ways to claw back from the brink of falling out of contention several times in her career, but Silva appears to be at the head of the next wave of flyweights. Five of Silva's seven UFC wins have come via decision and Namajunas seems unlikely to get stopped in a three-round fight, even if Silva gets the win.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis

Over 1.5 rounds (-145)

Heavyweight is always something of a crapshoot, and it's entirely possible that picking the over in a fight involving UFC's all-time leader in knockouts (Lewis with 16) is the wrong play. Still, Lewis is facing a man in Cortes-Acosta who has played it safe in many of his fights. While he has back-to-back impressive knockouts of Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev, it feels like Cortes-Acosta knows that the easiest path to victory is probably to work for takedowns off of leg kicks and try to score a grinding win. Lewis is good at getting up after being taken down, but he only defends takedowns at a 52% clip. That should lead to a fight that gets past the halfway point unless Lewis can find the opportunity to land one of his patented bombs for an early knockout.

Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong

Sean O'Malley moneyline (-205)

After winning the bantamweight title, O'Malley ran into the exact wrong kind of opponent in Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili's relentless pace and takedown attack served as the perfect kryptonite to O'Malley's game. Fortunately for O'Malley, Yadong's game is nothing like that. Yadong does not have a strong takedown game and wants to operate on the feet. In the striking realm, O'Malley had the edge, with more creativity and sharpness, as well as high-level accuracy that should be enough for him to win almost every exchange. Add in that O'Malley knows this fight is close to do-or-die for his standing as a top bantamweight, and I expect the former champion to roll on Saturday night.

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett moneyline (-230)

Gaethje is the quintessential all-action fighter, and he has enough power to be a threat at any moment in any fight. Pimblett's length, creativity in pressuring with grappling and dynamic top game are going to present challenges for Gaethje, however. Gaethje is 37 and with a lot of miles on his body. He also has fought just once since his April 2024 last-second knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300. There are too many things working in Pimblett's favor entering this fight to pick against him getting the biggest win of his career in the first main event of the Paramount era.

Who wins Gaethje vs. Pimblett, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 19, 2018, and find out.