The 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery has nearly arrived, with this year's big event set for Sunday at approximately 5 p.m. ET. The 30-minute TV special will air on ESPN directly after the conclusion of the women's basketball game between TCU and North Carolina State.
This year's draft class is led by UConn guard Paige Bueckers, who has been the presumptive No. 1 pick since the second she announced she was returning to school for the 2024-25 season. Bueckers was named Naismith Player of the Year as a freshman, but only played 17 total games the next two seasons due to injury. She was finally healthy last season and reminded everyone she's a special talent on both sides of the ball.
Whichever team wins the lottery will eagerly select Bueckers regardless of their current roster situation. She's that good. This year's candidates are the Los Angeles Sparks, Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics. The Chicago Sky are also in the lottery, but they owe the Wings a first-round pick swap this year, so they cannot wind up with the No. 1 pick.
While the Sparks have the best individual odds (44.2%) of winning the lottery, the Wings will get the top pick if either they or the Sky win it. The combined odds (45.4%) of that happening are slightly better than the Sparks' chances.
As the lottery approaches, here's a look at which team needs the top pick the most.
1. Mystics
The Mystics won the first title in franchise history in 2019, defeating the Connecticut Sun in five games. Since then, they're 76-94, have not won a single playoff game and have been extremely unlucky with injuries and untimely departures.
They're coming off a 2024 campaign in which they lost Elena Delle Donne to a sabbatical -- they technically still have her rights, but she's now 35 and if she ever returns to the game, it's unlikely to be with the Mystics -- Natasha Cloud to free agency and Kristi Toliver to retirement, and got off to the fourth-worst start in league history (0-12). They also currently do not have a coach or general manager after firing Eric and Mike Thibault earlier in the offseason.
Perhaps no team in the league could use a true star more than the Mystics.
Their current current roster is full of hardworking veterans like Brittney Sykes, Ariel Atkins and Stefanie Dolson, and some intriguing young players such as Shakira Austin, Aaliyah Edwards and Jade Melbourne. They have all the makings of a solid supporting cast -- defense, size, 3-point shooting -- but no one to lead the franchise. Bueckers has the talent and charisma to do just that.
Unfortunately for the Mystics, they have the worst odds to win the No. 1 pick at just 10.4%. The last time a team won the lottery from the worst spot was the Sparks back in 2012.
2. Wings
Just a season ago, the Wings appeared to be the young team on the rise. With new coach Latricia Trammell leading the way, they showed improvements on the defensive end, went 22-18 to earn the No. 4 seed and won a playoff series for the first time since 2009, when they were the Detroit Shock.
Fast forward a year, and they're on the verge of starting over yet again.
The injury-riddled 2024 campaign was a disaster. They won just nine games, finished in 11th place and missed the postseason for the first time since 2020. A month after the season ended, Trammell was fired, and key free agents Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally have made it clear they're looking elsewhere.
"It's a lot of movement for me this offseason," Sabally said in a video posted to TikTok. "The decision of moving with a potentially different shoe brand, but also the decision to change teams."
While four-time All-Star Arike Ogunbowale is still under contract for next season, it's fair to wonder if she'll commit her long-term future to the team after so little playoff success since she arrived in 2019. And as for their recent slew of first-round picks, none look to have star potential.
Historically, Dallas has been a place players leave rather than a prime free agent destination. Their best path to success is through the draft, and winning the lottery and the right to draft Bueckers would give the Wings and new general manager Curt Miller a true generational talent, the likes of which they would otherwise struggle to attract.
3. Sparks
One of the league's original franchises, the Sparks missed the playoffs in just four of their first 24 seasons of existence. After a last-place finish in 2024, which saw them fail to reach the double-digit win mark for the first time ever, and cost coach Curt Miller his job, they've now missed the playoffs in each of the last four seasons.
That is not only the longest drought in franchise history, but the longest active drought in the league.
Considering those facts, it might seem upon first glance that the Sparks need the No. 1 pick the most. However, they actually have the most young talent, and perhaps the brightest future, of these three teams thanks to a lottery coup last year and their location.
They drafted Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson at No. 2 and No. 4, respectively, in the 2024 draft. Prior to tearing her ACL, Brink looked like a true defensive star and still finished 13th in the league in blocks despite playing just 15 games and 330 total minutes. Jackson, meanwhile, proved that her three-level scoring translated to the professional ranks and became the fourth Sparks rookie ever to score 400 points in her rookie season.
That's not to say the Sparks couldn't use Bueckers. In fact, they're probably the best fit for her, and there's nearly a 50% chance she ends up in L.A. However, with Brink and Jackson already in place, and the fact that they'll always have sway with free agents, the Sparks aren't quite as desperate for Bueckers as the Mystics or Wings.