The Golden State Valkyries' expansion draft has nearly arrived. On Friday, the WNBA's first new franchise in over a decade will become an actual team when they select their initial roster. Golden State will be able to pick up to 12 players, but not more than one from each of the other 12 teams. The current organizations, meanwhile, were able to protect six players, including those on their roster and those whose draft rights they hold, making them off limits.
The rare and exciting process will alter the entire league, both now and for years to come. But which teams will it affect the most? Here's a look at the three teams with the most to lose in Friday night's expansion draft.
For more on the expansion draft, check out these stories:
- How does the expansion draft work?
- Predicting the six players each team will protect
- Rival GMs explain how they've handled the process
3. Las Vegas Aces
The Aces' three-peat attempt never really got off the ground last season. Candace Parker retired as training camp opened, Chelsea Gray missed the first month with a foot injury and they started 6-6 -- as many losses as they had in the entire 2023 season. While they played better as the summer went along, it was clear their lack of depth and the mental and physical toll of the past few years had caught up with them. They were not a true threat to the eventual champion New York Liberty, who eliminated them in a semifinal series that wasn't all that competitive.
But while 2024 may not have gone to plan for the Aces, they still have a ton of talent at the top of the roster, led by three-time MVP A'ja Wilson. If they can successfully navigate what looks to be a tricky offseason, they'll be right back in the contenders circle in 2025.
The first obstacle is the expansion draft. It might seem counterintuitive to suggest that a team without much depth will be among those most hurt by this process, but the Aces had a very clearly defined top-seven last season and you can only protect six players. And that doesn't include Kate Martin, who showed glimpses of being a rotation player during her rookie campaign. For a team short on young talent and likely facing a salary cap crunch, Martin, who is set to make less than $70K in 2025, could prove valuable.
We don't know which six players the Aces protected, but we can safely assume that Wilson, Gray, Kelsey Plum -- an unrestricted free agent -- and Jackie Young were on the list. That leaves two spots for Martin, Alysha Clark, Tiffany Hayes and Kiah Stokes. Losing any of those four would be a setback for the Aces as they try to reload for 2025.
2. Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx were the biggest surprise of the 2024 season, as they exceeded all expectations to come within seconds of upsetting the Liberty in the Finals and winning a record-setting fifth championship. Unlike the Liberty or Aces, the Lynx were not a superteam, but a collective led by a singular talent in Napheesa Collier.
Because the Lynx skipped a few steps and went right from a rebuild to contending, their roster is a unique mix of established veterans and promising prospects. On the one hand, that means they'll be able to keep their top contributors and should be in good shape for next season. On the other hand, they're going to lose one of their bright young talents, which could make it more difficult to extend their window.
Despite their depth, it actually seems pretty clear which six players the Lynx will choose to protect. All five starters should be on the list: Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Bridget Carleton and Alanna Smith. That leaves one more spot, which will likely go to former No. 2 pick Diamond Miller, who fell out of the rotation last season due to injuries and the team's sudden rise, but maintains a high ceiling.
That would then leave Dorka Juhasz and 2024 first-round pick Alissa Pili unprotected, two prime candidates for the Valkyries as they look to get their team off the ground. The Lynx could look to swing a trade with the Valkyries to convince them not to take one of their unprotected players, but no matter what, they're going to lose a key piece of their future.
1. New York Liberty
At long last, and by the slimmest of margins, the Liberty are WNBA champions. Heading into the 2024 season, the Liberty were the only remaining original franchise without a title. They ended that drought in thrilling fashion by defeating the Lynx in one of the best Finals series ever. Two of the five games went to overtime, including the winner-take-all Game 5, and four of the five games were decided by five points or fewer.
As the Liberty look ahead to 2025 and their title defense, they should be considered the early favorites. One of the few things standing in their way is the expansion draft, which will weaken their impressive depth. The Liberty's front office has done a tremendous job building this roster at all levels, and they boast superstars, reliable veteran role players and exciting young talents. And that's to say nothing of their stash of international players who remained overseas last season.
The downside of the Liberty's hard work is they're going to lose a player they value. We can pencil in Breanna Stewart -- an unrestricted free agent this winter, but she is expected to re-sign -- Finals MP Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Leonie Fiebich for their protected list. But what about the final spot?
You could nearly build an entire expansion team out of the remaining New York players.
- Guards: Courtney Vandersloot, Marine Johannes, Jaylyn Sherrod, Ivana Dojkic
- Wings: Kayla Thornton, Rebekah Gardner, Kennedy Burke, Marquesha Davis
- Bigs: Nyara Sabally, Han Xu
Sabally, the unlikely Game 5 hero, seems to be the best choice for the Liberty's final protected spot given her potential and their need for frontcourt depth. It's also almost certain that the Liberty will try to get creative to keep some other player(s) out of the Valkyries' grasp. But when you have so many desirable players, there's only so much you can do.
