Caitlin Clark's WNBA career began in ignominious fashion back on May 14 when she turned the ball over 10 times in a blowout loss to the Connecticut Sun. Four months later, the No. 1 overall pick has the Indiana Fever back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016, and hopes her playoff debut against the same opponent will go a lot better.
The Sun, meanwhile, are trying to finally get over the hump. This is the eighth consecutive playoff appearance for the team, and they've reached at least the semifinals in the last five seasons, with two Finals trips along the way. They have no title to show for all of that success, however, and their aging core is starting to run out of opportunities.
Ahead of Game 1 on Sunday, here's everything you need to know about this fascinating matchup:
No. 3 Connecticut Sun vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever
- Game 1: Fever at Sun, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET -- ESPN
- Game 2: Fever at Sun, Sept. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET -- ESPN
- Game 3*: Sun at Fever, Sept. 27, TBD -- ESPN2
*If necessary
Players to watch
Sun: Dijonai Carrington
Carrington is not the Sun's best player, but she may be their most important one in this series. That's because she'll be tasked with slowing down Caitlin Clark, who is already the best playmaker in the league. A big, physical wing with plenty of quickness, Carrington is the exact type of defender who can give Clark some trouble, and has already had success in that one-on-one battle this season.
Fever: Caitlin Clark
No reason to get cute here. Clark is the Fever's best player and the driving force behind their success, especially post-Olympics. When she's able to control the game and find the right balance between scoring and playmaking, the Fever are extremely difficult to beat. On nights where she gets frustrated with physicality and the refs, and starts turning the ball over too much, the Fever can run into trouble.
Three keys to the series
3-point shooting
If the Fever want to pull off an upset, their primary path is through out-shooting the Sun. While Clark and Co. are happy to bomb away from behind the arc, the Sun prefer to pound the ball inside and get easy points in the paint and at the free throw line.
Here's a look at the major discrepency in each team's approach and success with 3-point shooting. (All numbers per game and post-Olympics.)
| Team | 3PA | League Rank | 3P% | League Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Fever | 27.4 | 2nd | 39.9 | 1st |
Sun | 18.4 | 11th | 34.6 | 6th |
Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell nearly made as many combined 3s (231) as the Sun's entire team did this season (235). If the Fever get hot, they are capable of turning this series into a real math problem for the Sun.
Who controls the pace?
These teams are polar opposites in many ways, not just with 3-point shooting. They also play at completely different speeds. With Clark running the show, the Fever will push at any opportunity, even after a made shot. The Sun, on the other hand, often grind games to a halt.
Post-Olympics, the Fever had the second-fastest pace in the league (98.68), and the Sun ranked ninth (94.67).
The Fever are going to want to turn this series into a track meet where they can take advantage of Clark's playmaking and their 3-point shooting, and avoid playing against the Sun's set halfcourt defense. On the other hand, the Sun are going to want this to be more of a halfcourt slog, where they can use their size and physicality to bully the young Fever.
Turnovers
The Sun won 28 games and earned the No. 3 seed on the back of their defense, which boasts multiple All-Defensive caliber players. They are big, physical, athletic, tough and experienced. In short, they're everything you want a defense to be.
A major reason the Sun finished the regular season with the best defensive rating is because they force a lot of turnovers. In fact, their 20.9 opponent turnover rate is the highest by any team in the last three seasons. When opponents are only getting shot attempts off on four of every five possessions, it becomes very difficult to score consistently.
On the other side is a Fever team that has struggled with taking care of the ball all season long. They rank ninth in turnover rate (18.8) for the entire season, and have only been slightly better during their post-Olympics hot streak (18.3).
The Fever are going to turn the ball over against this Sun team. The questions then become: 1. Can they at least keep them to a manageable number? And 2. How much will the Sun take advantage of the turnovers they force? For the season, the Sun are first in the league in 18.6 points off turnovers per game. If they get that many easy points each game, they're going to win the series.
Prediction
The Fever have been hailed as the lower seed no one wanted to face in the first round, and for good reason. Clark is already one of the best players in the league, and they had the best offense in the league by a wide margin post-Olympics. In a short three-game series, they could absolutely catch fire and beat any team twice in three games.
But will they? This is a bad matchup for the Sun in some ways, but they have far more experience in these situations than the Fever. And if playoff basketball has taught us anything over the years, that's a very important factor. Pick: Sun in 3
