Last season, the Connecticut Sun knocked the Minnesota Lynx out of the playoffs in the first round. The stakes are higher this year, as the winner of the rematch will advance to the WNBA Finals. And, make no mistake, Minnesota is the team to beat this season.
The Lynx reached this point by sweeping the Phoenix Mercury in the first round, while the Sun did the same to the Indiana Fever. This is the first time Minnesota has reached this stage since 2020, while Connecticut is back for the sixth consecutive season.
Ahead of what should be a fascinating series, here's everything you need to know:
No. 2 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun
- Game 1: Sun at Lynx, Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET -- ABC
- Game 2: Sun at Lynx, Oct 1, TBD -- TBD
- Game 3: Lynx at Sun, Oct. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET -- ESPN2
- Game 4*: Lynx at Sun, Oct. 6, TBD -- TBD
- Game 5*: Sun at Lynx, Oct. 8, TBD -- ESPN2
*If necessary
Players to watch
Lynx: Napheesa Collier
Fresh off a runner-up finish in this season's MVP voting, Collier raised her game to a new level during the first round of the playoffs. She poured in 38 points in Game 1 to set what was then a career-high, then bettered that with a 42-point outing in the series-clinching Game 2 win, which tied a WNBA record for points in a playoff game. Collier is an incredible two-way force and has had some of her best games this season against the Sun. If she keeps playing like this, the Lynx will be tough to beat.
Sun: Alyssa Thomas
Thomas was a victim of her own success in some ways this season. Her scoring dropped off, but she still put up 10.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 1.6 steals per game on 50.9% shooting, and no one really noticed because it wasn't quite as good as her historic 2023 campaign. Few players are capable of controlling a game on both ends of the floor in the way Thomas does for the Sun. She had her fourth career postseason triple-double in Game 1 against the Fever, and was arguably even better in Game 2 when she went for 19 points, five rebounds and 13 assists.
Three keys to the series
Lynx's homecourt advantage
The Minnesota Lynx spent the end of the regular season chasing down the Connecticut Sun for the No. 2 overall seed in the playoffs, and ultimately secured that spot when Bridget Carleton hit a game-winning 3-pointer in the closing seconds of a dramatic win in Uncasville.
Now, the Lynx, who went a league-best 13-2 after the Olympics, have homecourt advantage for this series. How much does that matter?
The Lynx were tied with the Liberty for the best home record in the league this season at 16-4, and their defense was exceptional inside Target Center. In 20 home games, they boasted a 90.9 defensive rating. For context, if they had done that over the course of the season, it would be the lowest defensive rating by any team since the 2007 Fever.
3-point shooting
The Lynx made 38% of their 3-point attempts this season, which was not only the best mark in the league, but the best by any team in a full season (excluding the COVID-19-shortened bubble season in 2020) since the Fever in 2007. The Sun, on the other hand, shot 32.7% from downtown for the season, and 34.6% after acquiring Marina Mabrey to boost their outside attack.
An even bigger difference is the frequency with which these teams shoot from the outside. The Lynx attempted 25 per game this season, while the Sun were at 18, their attempts barely budging with the addition of Mabrey.
| Team | 3PA | League rank | 3FG% | League Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lynx | 25.0 | 6th | 38.0 | 1st |
Sun | 18.0 | 11th | 32.7 | 6th |
Another key difference between the teams is that everyone in the Lynx's starting lineup is a willing shooter, while just two of the Sun's most important starters as Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones refuse to shoot from outside of the paint. The Lynx had two players -- Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton -- take over 200 3-point attempts, while the Sun had none.
The shooting talent and depth greatly favors the Lynx in this series.
Patrolling the paint
Much in the same way that the Lynx have a big edge on the perimeter, the Sun should be able to control the paint. What they lack in height -- DeWanna Bonner is actually the tallest starter at 6-foot-4 -- they make up for with strength and physicality.
The Sun's advantage inside should manifest itself in numerous ways, whether that's paint scoring, trips to the free throw line or rebounding. In all categories, they were miles ahead of the Lynx in the regular season. Here's a closer look at the numbers, with league rank in parenthesis.
| Team | Points in the paint | Free throw rate | OREB% | Opponent OREB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sun | 38.5 (4th) | 0.317 (1st) | 30.8 (3rd | 27.3 (4th) |
Lynx | 28.1 (12th) | 0.230 (11th) | 26.6 (10th) | 31.8 (11th) |
If there's one area the Lynx's elite defense could be attacked this season, it was inside. Can the Sun do so to such an extent that it makes up for the expected 3-point discrepency? The answer may determine who wins this series.
Prediction
This is a fascinating matchup between two incredible defensive teams with completely opposite approaches on the offensive end. The Lynx have a major edge in terms of outside shooting, while the Sun figure to control the paint. Both teams boast singular star forwards and reliable, veteran supporting casts.
In the end, the Lynx's greater depth of options on offense and homecourt advantage will prove to be the difference. Pick: Lynx in 5