The Minnesota Lynx were the biggest surprise team this season. They used a strong start and an incredible post-Olympics surge to reach the 30-win mark for the first time in franchise history and earn the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. As for the Phoenix Mercury, their major offseason additions didn't lead to the success they may have hoped for. A late-season swoon saw them fall under .500 and into the No. 7 seed.
This is the seventh playoff meeting between the old rivals, with five of the previous matchups going the Lynx's way. Can they make it six, or will the Mercury pull off a big upset? Ahead of Sunday's Game 1, here's what you need to know:
No. 2 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 7 Phoenix Mercury
- Game 1: Mercury at Lynx, Sunday, 5 p.m. ET -- ESPN
- Game 2: Mercury at Lynx, Sept. 25, 9:30 p.m. ET -- ESPN
- Game 3*: Lynx at Mercury, Sept. 27, TBD -- ESPN2
*If necessary
Players to watch
Lynx: Napheesa Collier
Collier put together an MVP caliber season, her only problem was that A'ja Wilson had the best individual campaign ever at the same time. While Collier won't win the league's most prestigious honor this season, she'll hope she can lead the Lynx to a record-setting fifth championship. The Lynx are more of a collective than other contenders, and Collier is the superstar that makes it all work.
Mercury: Kahleah Copper
Copper was the Mercury's marquee offseason addition, and they gave up a big haul to acquire her from the Chicago Sky. Early on, Copper was tremendous and well worth the price. After the Olympic break, however, she started to fade and missed a few games down the stretch due to a back injury. If the Mercury want to pull off an upset, they need the pre-Olympics version of Copper (23.2 points per game on 56.1% TS), not the post-Olympics version (16.8 points per game on 49.9% TS).
Three keys to the series
Two different defenses
The Lynx were able to be so consistently successful this season because their defense never took a night off. What they lacked in size in the frontcourt they made up for with versatility and connectivity. They finished second in the league in defensive rating (94.8), first in opponent eFG% (46.0), second in opponent free throw rate (0.230) and fourth in opponent turnover rate (19.7).
The same cannot be said for the Mercury, who at times appeared disinterested on that side of the ball. Among playoff teams, only the Indiana Fever had a worse defensive rating than the Mercury's 105.4. Two of the biggest issues were that they got crushed on the offensive glass and did not force turnovers. They allowed a 32.6% opponent offensive rebound rate, which was the worst in the league, and their opponent turnover rate was 16.3, which ranked 11th.
While the Lynx aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut, they know exactly what they want to do out there. If the Mercury can't figure out a way to lock in on that side of the ball, the Lynx will pick them apart.
Can Griner dominate inside?
Brittney Griner's season largely flew under the radar, given the Mercury's post-Olympics swoon and some of the other stories, but she was terrific. She finished 11th in the league, scoring 17.8 points per game, and led the league in field goal percentage with a career-high of 57.9.
Thanks to the Mercury's new approach under first-year head coach Nate Tibbetts, which emphasized spacing and 3-point shooting, it was much harder for teams to double Griner on the block. She took advantage of her most efficient season ever.
This should be a series for Griner, and the Mercury will need her to play up to those levels, if not higher. The Lynx don't have anyone in their starting lineup above 6-foot-4, and Griner will have a major size advantage on the block. In three regular-season meetings with the Lynx, however, she had just 31 total points on 10-of-33 from the field. If she plays like that, the Mercury have no chance.
One final playoff run for Taurasi?
Diana Taurasi is one of the best players in WNBA history, and she may be about to embark on the final playoff run of her storied career. While she has not made a decision -- at least not publicly -- about her basketball future, the Mercury had something of a send-off for the 42-year-old guard during their final regular-season home game.
Due to the league's 2-1 format in these best-of-three first-round series, the Mercury are not guaranteed a home game. They would have to steal one of the first two games in order to force a winner-take-all Game 3 back in Phoenix, and few are predicting that they'll do so.
If this is it for Taurasi, it has been a spectacular journey. Over two decades in the league she has won Rookie of the Year, MVP, two Finals MVPs and three titles, made 11 All-Star and 14 All-WNBA appearances and scored more points than anyone else in league history (10,646).
Does she have one last run in her?
Prediction
The Lynx turned it up a notch after the Olympic break, while the Mercury limped to the finish line. The Lynx are locked in as a unit and excel defensively, while the Mercury often look out of sorts and don't guard anyone. It's hard to see the Mercury winning a game here. Pick: Lynx in 2
