As of Thursday, only two weeks remain in the regular season. Heading into the home stretch, seven of the eight playoff spots have been claimed, and a four-team battle has broken out between the Chicago Sky, Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics and Dallas Wings for the final one.
In the moment, it's hard to turn down a chance at the playoffs. In the long run, though, a trip to the lottery would be better for all of these teams, especially with UConn guard Paige Bueckers on the horizon as the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft. However, due to previous trades, not all of these organizations control their own first-round picks this year, adding an extra layer to the race for eighth.
Ahead of the run in, let's first check on the standings. The Sky and Dream have the same record, but Chicago has the tiebreaker between the clubs at the moment, so they sit in eighth for the time being. Further down, the Mystics are one game back in 10th, while the Wings are two games back in 11th.
8. Chicago Sky (11-22)
- Tiebreakers: vs. Dream (2-1); vs. Mystics (1-2); vs. Wings (2-1)
- Key remaining games: vs. Mystics, Sept. 11; vs. Mercury, Sept. 15; at Dream, Sept. 17
9. Atlanta Dream (11-22)
- Tiebreakers: vs. Sky (1-2); vs. Mystics (1-1); vs. Wings (1-1)
- Key remaining games: at Fever, Sept. 8; vs. Mystics, Sept. 13; at Mystics, Sept. 15; vs. Sky, Sept. 17
10. Washington Mystics (10-23)
- Tiebreakers: vs. Sky (2-1); vs. Dream (1-1); vs. Wings (3-0)
- Key remaining games: at Sky, Sept. 11; at Dream, Sept. 13; vs. Dream, Sept. 15
11. Dallas Wings (9-24)
- Tiebreakers: vs. Sky (1-2); vs. Dream (1-1); vs. Mystics (0-3)
- Key remaining games: at Dream, Sept. 6, at Sky, Sept. 8
Now, let's rank which of these teams should want this playoff spot the most:
1. Atlanta Dream
The Dream have by far the most incentive to make the playoffs out of any club in this bunch.
They sent their 2025 first-round pick to the Wings as part of the Allisha Gray trade, and the Wings later dealt it to the Mystics in the Stephanie Soares move. So not only are they without their pick, but another team in this group has it. There's a world where the Mystics beat out the Dream for the final playoff spot, and then win the lottery with the Dream's draft pick. That would be a disaster.
This season would essentially be a waste if the Dream miss out on the playoffs and don't have a top pick to show for their trouble. Plus, with their veteran roster and legit defense (97.6 defensive rating since the Olympic break, good for second in the league), the Dream could at least have some hope of making things difficult for the Liberty in the first round.
2. Dallas Wings
This has been a frustrating season for the Wings. They had their best campaign in over a decade last summer, but have been unable to build on it due to an array of injuries. Even though they're now healthy, their 6-19 record prior to the Olympics gave them so much work to do after the break.
They still have a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, but they're two games back of eighth and would have to jump three teams, which is unlikely at this point. If they can somehow make that happen, they have the most top-level talent of this group and one of the best offenses in the league, which would make them dangerous in a short series. Of course, they also have one of the worst defensive units.
As a result of the Marina Mabrey trade, the Wings have swap rights with the Sky's first-round pick this year, so they'll be getting a lottery pick regardless of where they end up. In that case, they may as well try to make the playoffs.
3. Washington Mystics
As a pure sporting achievement and statement on resilience and competitiveness, the Mystics making the playoffs after being 0-12 -- the fourth-worst start in league history -- would be remarkable. For the long-term health of the franchise, it would be a calamity. Perhaps no team could use an exciting young star like Bueckers more than Washington.
The good news for the Mystics is that no matter what happens over the final few weeks, they'll have at least one lottery pick coming their way because they own the Dream's first-round selection this year, and both clubs cannot make the playoffs.
That offers them some protection, but they should be hoping for an outcome where they get two shots at the lottery, especially considering neither themselves nor the Dream would have the best odds at the No. 1 pick.
4. Chicago Sky
Coming into the season, the Sky had no incentive to tank because they owed the Wings swap rights to their first-round pick. The consensus was that the Wings would be a playoff team again, while the Sky would be one of the worst squads in the league.
Instead, the Wings had horrible injury luck and dug themselves a huge hole prior to the Olympics, while the Sky got an unexpected boost from Chennedy Carter and an extremely productive rookie season from Angel Reese. Even with their recent free fall, the Sky remain ahead of the Wings in the standings.
Given how poorly the Sky are playing, and the likelihood that the Wings also end up in the lottery, they have no incentive to make the playoffs. Yes, it would sting to win the lottery and have to give the No. 1 pick to the Wings, but there's a chance they could still pick as high as No. 2 in that scenario. If they make the playoffs, the most likely outcome is getting swept by the Liberty in the first round and picking at No. 5.
