JuJu Watkins and No. 7 USC will travel to Hartford, Conn. on Saturday to take on Paige Bueckers and No. 4 UConn in a rematch of last season's Elite Eight matchup, which went the Huskies' way. Both teams have hopes of going even further this season, and this marquee matchup will be an early marker in the national title race.
After their first Elite Eight appearance in 30 years, the Trojans added Kiki Iriafen and Talia von Oelhoffen via the transfer portal and signed three five-star recruits in Kennedy Smith, Kayleigh Heckel and Avery Howell.
Following that impressive offseason, USC is off to a 10-1 start, with the only loss coming to No. 3 Notre Dame. Watkins is once again putting up ridiculous numbers on improved efficiency, Iriafen is nearly averaging a double-double and their 0.599 points per possession allowed is tied for the second-best defensive efficiency in the country, per Synergy Sports.
On paper, everything looks grand for Lindsay Gottlieb's bunch, which already has eight wins by at least 30 points. Dig a little deeper, though, and the Trojans haven't necessarily been that convincing. They've played three games against teams that are either currently ranked in the top-25 or were ranked at some point this season. Here are those results:
Nov. 4: 68-66 win over Ole Miss in Paris
- 40% shooting from the field
- 1 of 11 from 3-point range
- 25 turnovers
Nov. 23: 74-61 loss to Notre Dame at home
- 35.8% shooting from the field
- 1 of 13 from 3-point range
- 21 turnovers
Dec. 7: 66-53 win over Oregon in Eugene
- 40.4% shooting from the field
- 9 of 25 from 3-point range
- 20 turnovers
The trend is the same for Watkins. Her counting stats against Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Oregon are largely the same as the other eight games, but her efficiency against better opponents has fallen off a cliff and her turnovers have soared.
| Opponent | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
vs. Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Oregon | 24 | 6 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 5.3 | 40.7 |
Vs. everyone else | 25 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 47.4 |
Ahead of one of their biggest tests of the season, and a game that starts a stretch where they'll play four ranked opponents in their next five contests, it's worth taking a closer look at why Watkins and USC have struggled, particularly on the offensive end, against better competition.
Poor shooting
All of USC's offensive issues stem from their poor shooting. The Trojans are 92nd in the country in 3-point attempts per game at 22.4 and 156th in 3-point % at 31.7. They've shot below 30% from downtown in over half of their games so far, and have only reached double digits in made 3s three times, with two of those occasions coming against Cal-State Northridge and Cal Baptist.
Watkins is making 34.3% of her team-high 6.4 attempts per game -- a solid yet unremarkable clip -- and has thus far accounted for nearly one-third of their made 3s. von Oelhoffen is the only other healthy player letting it fly with any sort of regularity, but she's at just 31.3% on 4.4 attempts per game. Of the five players besides Watkins taking at least one 3 per game, none are shooting better than 32.5% (Avery Howell). The freshman Howell has shown some promise with a few big games from behind the arc, but she's also been highly inconsistent, which is not surprising given her inexperience.
The Trojans starting frontcourt of Iriafen and Rayah Marshall, meanwhile, is essentially a non-factor from the outside. Those two are second and third on the team in field goal attempts at 139 and 78, respectively. Together they've combined to take 40 total jumpshots, only seven of which have been 3s.
Trojans' 3-point shooting this season
| Player | 3PM | 3PA | 3FG% |
|---|---|---|---|
JuJu Watkins | 2.2 | 6.4 | 34.3 |
Avery Howell | 1.2 | 3.6 | 32.5 |
Talia von Oelhoffen | 1.4 | 4.4 | 31.3 |
Malia Samuels | 0.7 | 2.4 | 30.8 |
Kayleigh Heckel | 0.5 | 1.9 | 28.6 |
Kennedy Smith | 1.0 | 4.5 | 22.2 |
USC won't always be as bad from behind the arc as they were in their disastrous showings against Ole Miss and Notre Dame, and getting Smith back from her undisclosed injury could help. She was off to a tough start (22.2%), but was at least a willing shooter (4.4 attempts per game). Still, there's little evidence to suggest that the Trojans are suddenly going to become a strong shooting team.
The better the competition, the harder it is to win when you can't shoot. Not only are you more likely to run into a math problem from behind the arc, but talent, size and athleticism advantages become nullified.
No space to operate
Aside from Watkins, who often has the ball in her hands, the Trojans don't have any reliable threats from the outside. Other teams know this, which allows them to pack the paint and send extra help, especially against the All-American, who loves to get downhill and use her size and strength to bully smaller guards. That Iriafen and Marshall prefer to operate closer to the basket only makes opponents' jobs easier.
The biggest reason that Watkins has had poor shooting performances in USC's three biggest tests this season is that there just hasn't been any room for her to operate.
Take one of the final plays against Ole Miss. Watkins rejects a screen and gets a step on her defender, but there are two Rebels in the paint, which forces her to stop, pivot and toss up a tough leaner that doesn't go down.
Here's an early possession against Notre Dame, where USC tries to clear out one side of the floor and let Watkins play one-on-one. As Watkins turns and starts to drive, the Fighting Irish have three players waiting with two feet in the paint and she's forced into an impossible pull-up over multiple defenders.
Same story here against Oregon when Watkins gets an isolation opportunity at the high post. As she puts the ball on the deck, all five Ducks have their eyes on her and three of them have a foot in the paint. There's nowhere to go and Watkins tries a pull-up that comes up short.
Opponents are going to continue taking this extreme approach against Watkins until USC's role players show they can consistently knock down open shots. And even if that happens, the Trojans' personnel means that spacing is going to be an issue for them throughout the season.
Turnovers
Another big problem for the Trojans this season, particularly against tougher opposition, has been turnovers. They've given the ball away at least 20 times against all three of Ole Miss (25), Notre Dame (21) and Oregon (20).
Watkins addressed the issue after the loss to Notre Dame. "They're a great defensive team," she said. "We just have to learn to take care of the ball better."
General decision making has been a problem for the Trojans. Some of the passes they make are simply unwise or plain off-target. One player who really needs to step up in this department is von Oelhoffen. The veteran guard is in her fifth collegiate season, but has a staggering 24.8% turnover percentage, meaning she coughs it up on nearly a quarter of her possessions.
When you dig into the film, it's clear that their poor spacing is also a prime culprit.
As we saw above, Watkins has no space when she tries to drive the ball. At times, such as this possession against Notre Dame, that leads to turnovers before she can even get a shot off. Here, she gets past Sonia Citron, but there are again three Fighting Irish defenders in the paint, including Liatu King, who is just ignoring Iriafen at the top of the key.
Furthermore, when Watkins tries to make a play for her teammates in these situations, the passing window is so small. Let's go back to the fourth quarter against Ole Miss. The Rebels send two defenders to Watkins off the screen, so she tries to dump the ball down to Marshall. That should normally be a simple read, but Tameiya Sadler doesn't respect von Oelhoffen in the corner and sneaks in to knock the ball away.
The Trojans can clean things up by being stronger on the ball and making better choices. It's also important to remember that between transfers and incoming freshmen this is a brand new team that is still learning how to play together. As they improve their chemistry throughout the season, some of the more basic turnovers should go away. Given the lack of space, though, it's going to be hard to fully fix the problem against top defensive teams.