Nine. More. Days.
Selection Sunday is so close that you count on your fingers how many days away it is, and yet, so much remains to be decided. South Carolina is still the constant at No. 1 overall, having finished back-to-back undefeated regular seasons while every other team in play for a No. 1 seed has fallen at least four times.
The Pac-12 has been intense and unpredictable all season long, but the top four seeds have all managed to reach the conference semifinals. Stanford's position as a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed looks pretty strong, but UCLA and USC can better stake their claim. And would you look at that? They happen to play each other Friday night.
Ohio State and Iowa are also firmly in the No. 1 seed conversation and could face each other a third time in the Big Ten Championship Game this Sunday on CBS.
Further down, our No. 4 seeds and final hosting spots are still up for grabs. Notre Dame vaulted into a strong position with wins over Virginia Tech and Louisville to close out the regular season, while Gonzaga and Oklahoma need to win their conference tournaments to avoid a Selection Sunday sweat.
Around the cut line, teams like Miami (Fla.), Texas A&M and Michigan have won important contests already in their conference tournaments, but will likely need another win or two to feel comfortable.
By the time of our next update (Wednesday), 14 automatic bids will be sporting automatic bids to March Madness, and we'll have a pretty good idea of what that final field will look like.
**Bracketology uses games played through March 7
No. 1 seeds
*South Carolina (SEC): 29-0, NET 1, SOS 25
The Gamecocks are in a class of their own. It's been the case all season long, and really for the last several seasons. Only four programs have finished a season undefeated in D-I women's history. Baylor, Tennessee and Texas have each done so once, while UConn has six perfect seasons to its name. There's every reason to believe South Carolina can become the fifth, but we said that last year, too. It's never easy in March.
*Stanford (Pac-12): 27-4, NET 4, SOS 17
Kiki Iriafen had 18 points on 7-for-7 shooting and 15 rebounds in just the second half of Stanford's Pac-12 quarterfinal win over California. Her huge performance helped turn a 10-point deficit into a 14-point win over the Golden Bears, who now look more likely than not to end up on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday. A chaos scenario for Stanford would be a loss to Oregon State tonight coupled with Ohio State, UCLA and Texas each winning their conference tournaments. Even then, the Cardinal could still snag a No. 1 seed.
Ohio State (Big Ten): 25-4, NET 7, SOS 13
A win over Iowa to close out the regular season would've sealed the deal on a No. 1 seed for the Buckeyes, but a single loss in 2021 won't be enough to move Ohio State off the top line for now. With 12 wins over NET top-50 competition and the only real blemish coming against a Michigan team that is back in our projected field, the Buckeyes' resume still holds up against the competition.
UCLA (Pac-12): 25-5, NET 5, SOS 4
UCLA's ceiling for NCAA Tournament seeding is as high as No. 2 overall. Their eight NET top-25 wins lead the country, and winning the Pac-12 Tournament would see that number go up to 10. A loss, however, and UCLA could drop to a No. 2 seed. The committee's top 16 reveals have given mixed signals on the Bruins. There's only one way to guarantee that No. 1: just keep winning.
No. 2 seeds
*Iowa (Big Ten): 26-4, NET 6, SOS 22
After passing Pete Maravich's all-time scoring record and declaring for the 2024 WNBA Draft, a title is the only item left on Caitlin Clark's bucket list. Right now, the Hawkeyes are on pace to receive a No. 2 seed for the third consecutive season, but a No. 1 is still in the cards if they win the Big Ten Tournament. That'll likely mean going through both Indiana and Ohio State. However, it will have to come without Molly Davis, who will look to return in the NCAA Tournament after suffering a knee injury against Ohio State on Sunday.
*Texas (Big 12): 27-4, NET 3, SOS 48
Texas picked up a 71-46 win over BYU on Saturday to close out a 14-4 regular season in conference play and will face either West Virginia or BYU (again) in the Big 12 quarterfinals. They'll need to win the Big 12 Tournament for a chance at rising to a No. 1 seed, but are relatively safe on the No. 2 line. If only they could've taken one of those close games against Oklahoma.
USC (Pac-12): 24-5, NET 13, SOS 7
If Arizona fails to make the NCAA Tournament, USC will be to blame. The Wildcats got hot at the right time, winning four games in a row in the back half of February to enter the at-large conversation. However, they finished the season 1-3, including a pair of losses to USC. The first came in double overtime, and the second was a three-point loss in the Pac-12 quarterfinals.
LSU (SEC): 26-4, NET 9, SOS 67
Just win, and good things will happen. But LSU has done more than "just" win. Now a perfect 8-0 since the start of February, those wins have come by 21.5 points per game. This dominating form has seen LSU rise all the way to a No. 2 seed. Should they reach the SEC Championship Game, they'll likely meet South Carolina once again with a chance to prove they're a serious contender to repeat as national champions.
No. 3 seeds
*UConn (Big East): 26-5, NET 2, SOS 21
After finishing conference play undefeated for the ninth time in the last 11 seasons, seeding for UConn is fairly simple. If they win the Big East Tournament, a No. 2 seed is likely, but it probably requires LSU to fall in the SEC Tournament. If the Huskies stumble, they'll end up a No. 3. But given they've won all but one conference game this season by at least 20 points, any defeat would be a major surprise.
Virginia Tech (ACC): 23-6, NET 19, SOS 26
Elizabeth Kitley was named ACC Player of the Year for the third consecutive season, joining Duke's Alana Beard and Maryland's Alyssa Thomas as the only players to do so. However, the leg injury she suffered Sunday at Virginia will keep her out to start the ACC Tournament. Coming off back-to-back losses, the Hokies have dropped from the top No. 2 seed to a No. 3 and still could slide another line.
NC State (ACC): 25-5, NET 16, SOS 34
Hosting is no longer a concern for the Wolfpack after closing out ACC play with back-to-back victories. Now, it's all about NCAA Tournament seeding. Friday's game against Duke will indicate whether the NC State debate will center around a position on the No. 3 or No. 4 line, or if they can make a run to contest for an unlikely No. 2 seed.
Oregon State (Pac-12): 24-6, NET 18, SOS 11
The Beavers have won eight straight games with Raegan Beers in the lineup, including six against teams currently in the NET top 25. Oregon State is now 23-3 with her and 1-3 without her on the season, and Beers turned in one of her best games yet in a double-overtime victory over Colorado on Thursday. It's been said again and again, but what an incredible comeback from Scott Rueck's team this season after winning just four conference games a year ago.
No. 4 seeds
Indiana (Big Ten): 24-4, NET 12, SOS 36
Indiana has lost just once this season to a team currently projected outside of the top five overall in the NCAA Tournament bracket, but could be without Mackenzie Holmes, who remains day-to-day with a knee injury sustained in the Hoosiers' regular-season finale. A fifth-year senior, Holmes is the only player in the nation to average at least 20 points per game on 60% or better from the field, and she joined Caitlin Clark as the only unanimous first-team All-Big Ten selections.
*Gonzaga (WCC): 29-2, NET 10, SOS 85
The Bulldogs are, without a doubt, the best team in the West Coast Conference. If they can prove it one final time, they'll host games in the NCAA Tournament. In the WCC's gauntlet-style Tournament, the top two seeds get byes all the way to the semifinals. The No. 2 seed is Santa Clara, who Gonzaga beat by a combined 75 points in two regular-season meetings.
*Notre Dame (ACC): 23-6, NET 8, SOS 27
It's been a terrific close to the season from Notre Dame, who now have a chance to perhaps even jump to a No. 3 seed, equalling last season's result despite Olivia Miles having missed the entire year. Hannah Hidalgo exceeded all expectations and was named both ACC Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year while Sonia Citron is playing some of her best basketball as of late.
Oklahoma (Big 12): 21-8, NET 26, SOS 18
A loss to Kansas to close out Big 12 play and a pair of Big 12 teams on the No. 5 line applying pressure mean that while Oklahoma is in an enviable spot as the final team slated to host NCAA Tournament games, it's far from secure. Even if Texas claims the Big 12 crown, there's still the chance of Colorado holding onto that No. 16 spot in what could be one of the most difficult decisions for the selection committee.
No. 5 seeds
Baylor (Big 12): 23-6, NET 17, SOS 43
Colorado (Pac-12): 22-9, NET 14, SOS 5
Kansas State (Big 12): 24-6, NET 15, SOS 37
Louisville (ACC): 24-8, NET 23, SOS 32
No. 6 seeds
Syracuse (ACC): 23-6, NET 43, SOS 45
Utah (Pac-12): 22-10, NET 11, SOS 2
Creighton (Big East): 24-4, NET 24, SOS 70
West Virginia (Big 12): 23-6, NET 22, SOS 68
No. 7 seeds
Duke (ACC): 20-10, NET 20, SOS 20
Michigan State (Big Ten): 22-7, NET 21, SOS 60
North Carolina (ACC): 19-12, NET 34, SOS 14
Alabama (SEC): 23-8, NET 29, SOS 66
No. 8 seeds
Iowa State (Big 12): 18-10, NET 38, SOS 28
Ole Miss (SEC): 22-7, NET 36, SOS 69
Florida State (ACC): 22-9, NET 46, SOS 51
*UNLV (Mountain West): 27-2, NET 27, SOS 202
No. 9 seeds
Kansas (Big 12): 18-11, NET 40, SOS 12
Nebraska (Big Ten): 20-10, NET 30, SOS 40
Maryland (Big Ten): 18-12, NET 33, SOS 9
*Princeton (Ivy): 22-4, NET 31, SOS 82
No. 10 seeds
Tennessee (SEC): 18-11, NET 35, SOS 16
Marquette (Big East): 22-7, NET 37, SOS 80
Penn State (Big Ten): 19-11, NET 25, SOS 42
Washington State (Pac-12): 18-14, NET 28, SOS 10
No. 11 seeds
Auburn (SEC): 20-10, NET 41, SOS 61
*Richmond (Atlantic 10): 26-5, NET 55, SOS 94
Miami (Fla.) (ACC): 19-11, NET 50, SOS 57
Vanderbilt (SEC): 22-9, NET 57, SOS 72
*Middle Tennessee (CUSA): 25-4, NET 39, SOS 189
No. 12 seeds
*Green Bay (Horizon): 25-6, NET 52, SOS 173
Texas A&M (SEC): 19-11, NET 42, SOS 59
Michigan (Big Ten): 19-12, NET 49, SOS 38
*Belmont (MVC): 23-7, NET 73, SOS 101
*Toledo (MAC): 24-4, NET 65, SOS 140
No. 13 seeds
*Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN): 26-4, NET 53, SOS 120
*South Dakota State (Summit): 24-5, NET 54, SOS 96
*Fairfield (MAAC): 27-1, NET 83, SOS 346
*Eastern Washington (Big Sky): 26-5, NET 78, SOS 250
No. 14 seeds
*Stony Brook (CAA): 24-3, NET 66, SOS 339
*North Texas (AAC): 23-7, NET 86, SOS 248
*Chattanooga (SoCon): 26-4, NET 103, SOS 315
*Marshall (Sun Belt): 23-6, NET 77, SOS 270
No. 15 seeds
*Grand Canyon (WAC): 24-6, NET 89, SOS 324
*Jackson State (SWAC): 22-6, NET 98, SOS 91
*Lamar (Southland): 23-5, NET 128, SOS 210
*Maine (America East): 21-9, NET 113, SOS 251
No. 16 seeds
*Norfolk State (MEAC): 24-5, NET 121, SOS 316
*UC Irvine (Big West): 20-8, NET 131, SOS 336
*Sacred Heart (NEC): 21-9, NET 227, SOS 341
*Holy Cross (Patriot): 17-12, NET 191, SOS 309
*High Point (Big South): 20-10, NET 264, SOS 203
*UT Martin (OVC): 15-15, NET 213, SOS 282
Last Four In
Miami (Fla.) (ACC): 19-11, NET 50, SOS 57
Vanderbilt (SEC): 22-9, NET 57, SOS 72
Texas A&M (SEC): 19-11, NET 42, SOS 59
Michigan (Big Ten): 19-12, NET 49, SOS 38
First Four Out
Mississippi State (SEC): 21-11, NET 47, SOS 74
California (Pac-12): 18-14, NET 59, SOS 8
St. Joseph's (Atlantic 10): 26-4, NET 61, SOS 159
Arizona (Pac-12): 17-15, NET 32, SOS 1
