Women's Bracketology: Final 2026 NCAA Tournament projections for field of 68
BYU is the last team in, and Texas A&M is the first team out in our final women's NCAA Tournament projection
Are you ready for Madness? Selection Sunday is here, and each women's college basketball team's hard work over the past five months will be evaluated for the final time. Sixty-eight of those teams will be rewarded with a spot in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.
Outside of a few final conference championship games on Sunday, the time for teams to prove themselves is over. At this point, the final decisions lie in the hands of the selection committee. You are what your résumé says you are.
The first piece of the women's NCAA Tournament puzzle was revealed on Saturday, and we now know which 16 schools are hosting games next weekend. The final decision came down to North Carolina and Maryland, with the Tar Heels' strong play down the stretch likely being the deciding factor in UNC earning a 4 seed and a hosting spot. Maryland appears like the team will end up with a 5 seed.
Here are my final projections for the season and final takes on the bubble teams.
Bracketology -- Selection Sunday projection
| Seed | Fort Worth 1 | Sacramento 2 | Fort Worth 3 | Sacramento 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 16 | Holy Cross/SFA |  |  | Southern U./Samford |
| 8 |  |  |  |  |
| 9 |  |  |  |  |
| 5 |  |  |  |  |
| 12 |  |  |  |  |
| 4 |  |  |  |  |
| 13 |  |  |  |  |
| 6 |  |  |  |  |
| 11 |  | Virginia/BYU |  | Nebraska/Arizona St. |
| 3 |  |  |  |  |
| 14 |  |  |  |  |
| 7 |  |  |  |  |
| 10 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 |  |  |  |  |
| 15 |  |  |  |  |
Last four in
- Nebraska
- Arizona State
- Virginia
- BYU
First four out
- Texas A&M
- Richmond
- Stanford
- Utah
Next four out
- Mississippi State
- North Dakota State
- Kansas
- Indiana
Final Bubble Thoughts
Nebraska
With a 28 NET and 39 WAB, Nebraska looks like an NCAA Tournament team at first glance. I think the Huskers will get in, but a 1-10 record in Quad 1 games and Big Ten Tournament collapse against Indiana could have the committee wondering if they have what it takes to beat top competition.
Arizona State
From 10 wins last season to 24 this year, it's been a remarkable turnaround in Year 1 of the Molly Miller era. That 24th win of the season and first Quad 1 win against Iowa State will likely be enough to push Arizona State into the field.
Virginia
Virginia's spot looked pretty safe after its Feb. 22 win against Louisville, but it lost three straight games heading into Selection Sunday to leave some doubt. All of those losses were against NCAA Tournament teams, though, and I believe Virginia is one as well.
BYU
It was going to take a lot to get BYU into the field, but a pair of Big 12 Tournament wins and friendly results around the bubble may have done just enough to send the Cougars to a First Four game.
Texas A&M
My projected first team out, Texas A&M's status depends entirely on whether the committee will make a statement on the importance of wins above bubble in the metric's first season. A&M ranks 38th and rattled off impressive wins to end the regular season, but has just 14 wins on the year and suffered a painful SEC Tournament loss against Auburn.
Richmond
In contrast to Texas A&M, Richmond has a NET ranking of 37, better than most bubble teams, but lacks any Quad 1 wins and has beaten just two NCAA Tournament teams (projected No. 10 seed Rhode Island and No. 13 seed Green Bay). I think the Spiders come up a signature win shy of the Big Dance.
Stanford
A trio of Quad 1 wins is keeping Stanford in the conversation, but this résumé has too many holes. The Cardinal will likely miss the NCAA Tournament for a second straight season.
Utah
Utah may not have any bad losses, but it simply has too many losses overall. A combined 0-5 record against fellow Big 12 bubble teams Arizona State and BYU might be the sticking point for the committee.
