Last March, Gonzaga entered the West Coast Conference Women's Tournament at 27-3 overall. Sporting NET top-25 wins over Louisville and Tennessee, they were safely in the NCAA Women's Tournament and had run through the WCC regular season nearly flawlessly.
However, the Zags suffered a surprising loss to Portland in the WCC championship game, and the Pilots became a March Madness bid stealer.
Fast forward to 2024 and the same thing has happened again. This time around, an even stronger Gonzaga team, with just two losses and a win over Stanford, fell 67-66 to Portland in the WCC final.
The impacts of the game are huge. Portland entering the field means someone has to drop out. That unfortunate title goes to Texas A&M, but all bubble teams should be taking a few deep breaths.
It also means the Zags lose their projected spot in the top-16 overall seeds and likely won't be hosting any games in Spokane. The beneficiary here is Kansas State, who, like Colorado, rejoins the No. 4 seed line in our penultimate Bracketology of the season.
14 automatic bids to the NCAA Women's Tournament have been handed out so far, and by the end of Wednesday, more than half of the Division I conferences will have crowned champions.
Conference tournaments have already ended for all major conferences. However, a few more opportunities remain for bid stealers -- UNLV in the Mountain West and Princeton in the Ivy League should be dancing no matter what, meaning bubble teams will be rooting for them to finish the job.
We'll return on Selection Sunday with a final seed list to reflect the remaining conference tournament results, but there won't be any other major changes between now and when we all get to see the answers to the test.
Double asterisks (**) represent teams that have clinched automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. Single asterisks (*) are the highest remaining teams in the NET in each ongoing conference tournament.
No. 1 seeds
**South Carolina (SEC): 32-0, NET 1, SOS 23
A perfect 32-0 entering the NCAA Women's Tournament for the second consecutive season, South Carolina vs. the field is a legitimate question to ask. But it wasn't easy for the Gamecocks in the SEC Tournament. They needed Kamilla Cardoso's first career 3-pointer to save an upset in the semifinals against Tennessee and survived a late-game scuffle against LSU to take the SEC crown.
**USC (Pac-12): 26-5, NET 10, SOS 3
At the top of the projected field, it's now ... USC and USC? I'll move along before I get comments on who the "real" USC is, but the Trojans have earned their No. 1 seed after working through the gauntlet that is the Pac-12 Tournament. They defeated both UCLA and Stanford en route to the title and enter March Madness winners of 12 of their last 13 overall.
Stanford (Pac-12): 28-5, NET 4, SOS 15
While the Cardinal came up short against USC in the Pac-12 championship game, they were fairly established as the No. 2 overall seed before that contest. While their status on the top line isn't quite 100%, Stanford is a favorite to receive its fourth straight No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Even wilder, this wouldn't be the first time it's done so (also from 2010-13).
**Iowa (Big Ten): 29-4, NET 5, SOS 20
Iowa trailed Nebraska for most of the Big Ten championship game and was still down eight points with fewer than two and a half minutes left in regulation. Just when you thought the Hawkeyes were out of magic, Caitlin Clark hit a 3-pointer that sparked a 10-2 run that sent the game to OT in an eventual win. The general consensus is that a Big Ten title is enough to earn Iowa its first No. 1 seed with Clark. While I ultimately agree, it's not quite that simple.
No. 2 seeds
**Texas (Big 12): 30-4, NET 3, SOS 41
The Longhorns have a real case to replace either Stanford or Iowa as a No. 1 seed. If the committee chooses to favor conference champions, Stanford could drop. But Iowa's spot is also precarious. During the top 16 reveal on Feb. 29, Texas checked in at No. 6 with Iowa at No. 7. This was before Iowa took down Ohio State to close the regular season, but Texas battled tougher competition in its conference tournament.
UCLA (Pac-12): 25-6, NET 6, SOS 1
UCLA's second loss of the season to USC was enough to end its No. 1 seed hopes, which probably relied on winning the Pac-12 Tournament. The margins were thin for UCLA, which lost two games in overtime this season and another two by a combined five points. If any of those results are reversed, it's a different story. Still, no one in the country has more NET top 25 wins (eight) than Cori Close's group.
Ohio State (Big Ten): 25-5, NET 9, SOS 14
Safely a No. 2 seed, the Buckeyes had a shocking exit to Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinals and will enter the NCAA Tournament coming off back-to-back losses after having previously gone undefeated since New Year's Day. Both of those defeats came away from home, so Ohio State will look to get their groove back in Columbus for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
**UConn (Big East): 29-5, NET 2, SOS 30
Another interesting seeding decision will be made at the bottom of the No. 2 line, with three teams (also Notre Dame and LSU) seeming to be in contention. Despite being even more shorthanded than usual for the final two games of the Big East Tournament (Aaliyah Edwards was out with a broken nose but should be ready for March Madness), UConn still went a span of 19 (!) minutes against Marquette and Georgetown without allowing a single point. The Huskies haven't lost to anyone ranked below No. 13 in the NET and were arguably the country's most dominant team in conference play.
No. 3 seeds
**Notre Dame (ACC): 26-6, NET 7, SOS 24
Just how high can a team rise in two weeks? That's the question for the Fighting Irish, who weren't in either of the top 16 reveals but have amazingly rattled off five straight wins vs NET top-25 opponents to finish off the regular season and then won the ACC Tournament title. Notre Dame now has seven NET top-25 wins (more than UConn and LSU combined) but three losses outside the NET top 25 (also more than UConn and LSU combined).
LSU (SEC): 28-5, NET 8, SOS 52
LSU battled to the end in each of its meetings with South Carolina this season, losing by six and seven points. Regardless of whether the Tigers end up a No. 2 or No. 3 seed, LSU (15-2 vs SEC teams other than the Gamecocks) has proven itself to be a legitimate national title contender (it won as a No. 3 last year, anyways). No team has repeated since UConn won four straight championships from 2013-16 with teams led by Breanna Stewart.
NC State (ACC): 27-6, NET 13, SOS 26
The Wolfpack took down both Duke and Florida State (each projected in the top half of the bracket) in the ACC Tournament before losing a close title game to the red-hot Notre Dame. Their strong performance allows NC State to safely hold serve as a dangerous No. 3 seed with several players that can take over a game late.
Oregon State (Pac-12): 24-7, NET 17, SOS 9
It's not often a team can be the No. 4 seed in their own conference tournament but wind up a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yet, that will likely be the situation for Oregon State in the Pac-12's final season. They were the clear fourth-best team in the nation's best conference, going a combined 1-6 against USC, Stanford and UCLA while finishing 5-0 against Colorado and Utah. The Beavers were the litmus test for top conference foes.
No. 4 seeds
Virginia Tech (ACC): 24-7, NET 19, SOS 25
All eyes will be on the health of three-time ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley, who missed the ACC Tournament with a knee injury. Virginia Tech was able to get past Miami (Fla.) in the quarterfinals but then lost by 29 points against Notre Dame, its largest defeat since the 2021 NCAA Tournament. If they're without their leader, it's tough to see the Hokies making a deep run.
Indiana (Big Ten): 24-5, NET 15, SOS 40
Indiana lost its opening game of the Big Ten Tournament to Michigan, which caused plenty of concern within the Hoosier community regarding the team's ability to maintain a hosting spot. But on some level, to fall, others need to pass you. Gonzaga's loss and none of the other teams in the conversation reaching their conference title games should keep Indiana on the right side of that cut line.
Colorado (Pac-12): 22-9, NET 16, SOS 6
The Buffaloes enter Wednesday with an 18-1 record against teams outside of the NET's top 17. Yet, they've played a dozen games against those elite foes. Stanford, USC and LSU are about as good of a three-best wins as anyone in the country has, and they'll look to use those victories to hold up their resume after a shaky (to put it mildly) close to the year.
Kansas State (Big 12): 25-7, NET 14, SOS 27
Among the three Big 12 teams fighting for the final hosting spot, the Wildcats get the edge for a few reasons. They had the strongest performance in the Big 12 Tournament, picking up a NET top-25 win against West Virginia and then losing a tight game to Texas in the semifinals. They also have the most overall NET top-25 wins (five) and are the only team without a loss outside of the NET top 50.
No. 5 seeds
Oklahoma (Big 12): 22-9, NET 28, SOS 19
Baylor (Big 12): 24-7, NET 18, SOS 44
Gonzaga (WCC): 30-3, NET 12, SOS 86
Syracuse (ACC): 23-7, NET 43, SOS 46
No. 6 seeds
Louisville (ACC): 24-9, NET 23, SOS 33
Utah (Pac-12): 22-10, NET 11, SOS 5
West Virginia (Big 12): 24-7, NET 21, SOS 67
Creighton (Big East): 25-5, NET 24, SOS 72
No. 7 seeds
Iowa State (Big 12): 20-11, NET 33, SOS 22
Duke (ACC): 20-11, NET 20, SOS 17
Ole Miss (SEC): 23-8, NET 37, SOS 62
North Carolina (ACC): 19-12, NET 36, SOS 16
No. 8 seeds
Florida State (ACC): 23-10, NET 44, SOS 43
Nebraska (Big Ten): 22-11, NET 26, SOS 31
Michigan State (Big Ten): 22-8, NET 22, SOS 60
*UNLV (MWC): 29-2, NET 25, SOS 212
No. 9 seeds
Kansas (Big 12): 19-12, NET 38, SOS 10
Alabama (SEC): 23-9, NET 32, SOS 68
Maryland (Big Ten): 19-13, NET 31, SOS 7
Tennessee (SEC): 19-12, NET 30, SOS 12
No. 10 seeds
*Princeton (Ivy): 23-4, NET 34, SOS 83
Michigan (Big Ten): 20-13, NET 48, SOS 29
Auburn (SEC): 20-11, NET 45, SOS 55
Vanderbilt (SEC): 22-9, NET 57, SOS 73
No. 11 seeds
Washington State (Pac-12): 18-14, NET 29, SOS 13
Marquette (Big East): 23-8, NET 40, SOS 76
**Richmond (Atlantic 10): 29-5, NET 53, SOS 98
Penn State (Big Ten): 19-12, NET 27, SOS 36
Miami (Fla.) (ACC): 19-12, NET 51, SOS 56
*Middle Tennessee (CUSA): 26-4, NET 39, SOS 191
No. 12 seeds
**Green Bay (Horizon): 27-6, NET 50, SOS 174
*Drake (MVC): 26-5, NET 66, SOS 121
*Toledo (MAC): 25-4, NET 63, SOS 142
*Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN): 28-4, NET 56, SOS 127
No. 13 seeds
**South Dakota State (Summit): 27-5, NET 55, SOS 103
*Fairfield (MAAC): 28-1, NET 81, SOS 346
*Eastern Washington (Big Sky): 28-5, NET 78, SOS 261
*Stony Brook (CAA): 25-3, NET 68, SOS 336
No. 14 seeds
**Marshall (Sun Belt): 26-6, NET 75, SOS 270
**Chattanooga (SoCon): 28-4, NET 106, SOS 320
**Portland (WCC): 21-12, NET 102, SOS 90
*Rice (AAC): 18-14, NET 105, SOS 152
No. 15 seeds
*Jackson State (SWAC): 23-6, NET 103, SOS 92
*Grand Canyon (WAC): 24-7, NET 93, SOS 323
*Lamar (Southland): 23-5, NET 126, SOS 200
*Maine (America East): 23-9, NET 115, SOS 260
No. 16 seeds
*Norfolk State (MEAC): 24-5, NET 122, SOS 321
*UC Irvine (Big West): 21-8, NET 125, SOS 335
*Sacred Heart (NEC): 22-9, NET 228, SOS 340
*Holy Cross (Patriot): 18-12, NET 191, SOS 314
**UT Martin (OVC): 16-16, NET 220, SOS 287
**Presbyterian (Big South): 20-14, NET 299, SOS 257
Last Four In
Washington State (Pac-12): 18-14, NET 29, SOS 13
Marquette (Big East): 23-8, NET 40, SOS 76
Penn State (Big Ten): 19-12, NET 27, SOS 36
Miami (Fla.) (ACC): 19-12, NET 51, SOS 56
First Four Out
Texas A&M (SEC): 19-12, NET 41, SOS 48
Mississippi State (SEC): 21-11, NET 47, SOS 75
California (Pac-12): 18-14, NET 59, SOS 11
Columbia (Ivy): 22-5, NET 54, SOS 111
