Women's Bracketology: ACC teams on the bubble, plus mind-boggling stats for each No. 1 seed
Here's the latest projections for the field of 68 as conference play heats up
By
Connor Groel
•
3 min read
It's getting clear at the top. While all of the No. 1 seeds went undefeated over the past seven days, each of the four projected No. 2 seeds from last week's bracketology lost. In the biggest matchups of the week, Texas avenged an earlier loss against LSU and UCLA handed Michigan its third three-point loss of the season against a top-five opponent.
With Louisville falling to Duke and Iowa losing a third straight game (against Minnesota), there is now a sizable gap between the No. 1 seeds and the rest of the field. Even a Vanderbilt win over Texas in a blockbuster matchup on Thursday would not change much immediately, although it could position the Commodores to contend for a No. 1 seed down the line.
For now, UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas are doing everything they need to and then some. Here are mind-boggling stats about each of the top dogs.
UConn has won 20 straight games by at least 25 points, the longest streak by any team since 2000. The Huskies have only won two games this season by fewer than 25 points -- 13 points against Louisville and three points against Michigan, both in November. UConn's points per game differential this season is +39.3, the third-highest since 2000. The only better teams? The 2014-15 and 2015-16 UConn squads in Breanna Stewart's final two seasons in Storrs.
UCLA has already tallied 13 Quad-1 wins this season, five more than any other team in the country (Texas has eight). Last season, only four teams had more than eight Quad-1 wins by Selection Sunday (South Carolina led the way with 16), and they all received No. 1 seeds. The Bruins have a commanding lead in wins above bubble (WAB), and would be the No. 1 overall seed if not for UConn's status as the undefeated reigning national champion.
South Carolina has done a lot of winning under head coach Dawn Staley, who will seek her 500th win with the program on Saturday at LSU. But some of those biggest wins have come recently. On Sunday, the Gamecocks had their largest win ever against a ranked opponent, a 93-50 trouncing of Tennessee. Just two weeks prior, they beat Vanderbilt by 29 points, the school's largest win against a top-five team. South Carolina remains dominant, with its only regulation loss coming by two points against Texas.
Following Monday night's win against Kentucky, Texas has now won 40 straight home games, the longest active streak in the country. It's been more than two years since the Longhorns dropped a game in Austin -- against Oklahoma in January 2024. That span includes 12 wins against ranked teams and four wins against top-five teams. Texas has beaten ranked Oklahoma, LSU and Kentucky at home this month, and we're only nine days in.
Bracketology -- Feb. 10
| Seed | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 16 | Chattanooga/Alabama A&M | Howard/Cal Baptist |  |  |
| 8 |  |  |  |  |
| 9 |  |  |  |  |
| 5 |  |  |  |  |
| 12 |  |  |  |  |
| 4 |  |  |  |  |
| 13 |  |  |  |  |
| 6 |  |  |  |  |
| 11 |  | Arizona St./Clemson |  | Utah/Virginia Tech |
| 3 |  |  |  |  |
| 14 |  |  |  |  |
| 7 |  |  |  |  |
| 10 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 |  |  |  |  |
| 15 |  |  |  |  |
On the bubble
Last four in
- Utah
- Arizona State
- Clemson
- Virginia Tech
First four out
- Virginia
- Colorado
- Fairfield
- Richmond
Next four out
- BYU
- South Dakota State
- California
- Kansas
What to watch for
ACC Bubble Teams Look to State Their Cases
This season's NCAA Tournament bubble is crowded with teams from the ACC and Big 12, and this week will be a huge opportunity for ACC teams to pick up quality wins against one another.
Stanford is currently a No. 10 seed, while Virginia Tech is the last team in, Virginia is the first team out and California sits in the next four out. This week, both Virginia and Virginia Tech will face Stanford and California, with all four games carrying huge bubble implications.
Stanford and Virginia Tech were in much better shape last week, but the Cardinal had an ugly 22-point loss in a Quad-3 game against Georgia Tech, while the Hokies went 0-2 in Quad-1 opportunities against Notre Dame and NC State. Virginia and California both went 2-0 last week to return to bubble consideration but are a combined 0-13 in Quad-1 games this season.
There's one more ACC bubble team, Clemson, which sits in the last four in. The Tigers face Georgia Tech at home and Syracuse on the road. With all the chaos coming around it, a pair of victories would go a long way towards Clemson receiving a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
