Women's Bracketology: Iowa State on the bubble in college basketball projections
We're projecting the entire 68-team field with less than two months until Selection Sunday
By
Connor Groel
•
4 min read
Welcome to a new season of bracketology! With just under two months until the 2026 NCAA Tournament begins, only a pair of teams remain undefeated.
Defending national champion UConn isn't a surprise -- winners of 35 straight games, the Huskies have a strong chance to enter the Big East Tournament undefeated. They have just two remaining Quad-1 games on the schedule, with the tougher contest on Feb. 1 against Tennessee, the most recent team to defeat Geno Auriemma's group.
Undefeated Vanderbilt (19-0), on the other hand, is off to the best start in school history behind Mikayla Blakes, the nation's second-leading scorer at 25.0 points per game. An SEC gauntlet awaits the Commodores -- eight of their final 11 games come against ranked opponents, including South Carolina, Texas and a pair of meetings with Kentucky.
Vanderbilt currently stands as the top-ranked No. 2 seed after hanging on against Michigan in the Coretta Scott King Classic on Monday, but has every opportunity to claim its first No. 1 seed since the 2001-02 season.
With more quality wins than Vanderbilt at the moment, each of last season's Final Four teams (UConn, UCLA, South Carolina, Texas) has a spot on the top line of the bracket, setting up potential rematches in Phoenix come April.
The Big Ten and SEC lead the way with 12 and 11 projected NCAA Tournament teams, respectively, with the ACC and Big 12 chipping in eight each. But don't worry, there are still a few mid-major teams that could do damage. More information on those below.
Bracketology -- Jan. 20
| Seed | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 |  |  |  |  |
| 3 |  |  |  |  |
| 4 |  |  |  |  |
| 5 | Ole Miss | Princeton | Tennessee | Duke |
| 6 | West Virginia | Alabama | Washington | Oklahoma |
| 7 | USC | Stanford | NC State | Nebraska |
| 8 | North Carolina | Georgia | Notre Dame | Illinois |
| 9 | Minnesota | Arizona St. | Oregon | Syracuse |
| 10 | Fairfield | Oklahoma St. | Villanova | Mississippi St. |
| 11 | North Dakota St. | Iowa St./South Dakota St. | Rhode Island | Utah/Clemson |
| 12 | San Diego St. | Montana St. | Rice | Gonzaga |
| 13 | Ball St. | UC Irvine | Murray St. | Green Bay |
| 14 | Arkansas St. | High Point | McNeese St. | Western Illiniois |
| 15 | Vermont | Abilene Christian | Charleston | Army |
| 16 | Middle Tennessee/Southern U. | Chattanooga/MD Eastern Shore | Eastern Kentucky | Fairleigh Dickinson |
On the bubble
Last four in
- Utah
- Iowa St.
- South Dakota St.
- Clemson
First four out
- Richmond
- BYU
- Auburn
- Virginia
Next four out
- Miami
- Virginia Tech
- Seton Hall
- South Florida
What to watch for
Can Iowa State right the ship?
The Cyclones rang in the New Year undefeated and the No. 10 team in the AP Poll, but have dropped five consecutive games to begin January and now find themselves in the last four in. They join a 2023-24 TCU team that forfeited games due to a lack of available players as the only schools in the last 10 years to lose five straight immediately following a 14-game win streak.
The Cyclones have played the last few games without starters Addy Brown and Arianna Jackson, both of whom remain out indefinitely. Brown's absence has been particularly tough for Iowa State -- she is their second-leading scorer (13.1 points per game) and top rebounder (9 per game).
While Audi Crooks' lethal combination of scoring volume and efficiency drew headlines, it masked a non-conference SOS ranked just 233rd in the country. A sole NET top-50 win over Iowa is keeping the team's resume afloat.
Even still, the team ranks just 50th in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a new metric used by the selection committee this season that aims to measure how many wins a team earned compared to how an average bubble team would have performed against the same schedule.
Winnable home games against Cincinnati and Arizona this week could stabilize the Cyclones, but just one loss could also send them out of the field entirely, and Iowa State lost a road game at Cincinnati just two weeks ago. Audi Crooks has posted season lows in points in back-to-back games.
Princeton leads mid-major crop
Last season, the Ivy League sent three teams to the NCAA Tournament for the first time. This year, Princeton seems poised to be the highest-seeded team in the conference's history. The record currently belongs to both Dartmouth (a No. 8 seed in 1983) and Princeton (No. 8 in 2015), but this year's Tigers are currently on the No. 5 line while ranking 18th in WAB.
Princeton has a 4-1 combined record in games against Quad-1 and Quad-2 opponents and could pick up two more such victories at Columbia and Harvard in February. However, the Tigers are in position to drop a game or two and remain a single-digit seed.
Elsewhere, both the Summit League and Atlantic 10 have dreams of sending two teams to March Madness. South Dakota State has won three straight Summit League Tournament titles and reached 13 of the last 16 NCAA tournaments but just lost to a North Dakota State team seeking its first NCAA Tournament appearance. Both are currently No. 11 seeds.
Rhode Island and the Maggie Doogan-powered Richmond Spiders are the Atlantic 10's top contenders, but Davidson is lurking and George Mason could also make things interesting in the conference tournament.
Lastly, Fairfield comes in as a No. 10 seed with notable road wins over Villanova and Richmond, although margins are slim for the Stags due to their Quad-4 loss at Howard.
