Women's Bracketology: USC rises in college basketball projections after Iowa upset
Plus, a look at which teams are still in the hunt for a top-16 seed
By
Connor Groel
•
3 min read
In the NCAA Women's Tournament, No. 1 through No. 4 seeds are rewarded for their strong regular seasons by getting to host games in the first two rounds. These spots are highly coveted, and for good reason - over the last 10 tournaments, exactly 75% of top-four seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16.
So, which teams are "locks" for a hosting spot, and who is still alive in the race? At this point, all teams currently projected as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are almost guaranteed to host. Iowa is the rockiest of the bunch following an 0-2 week but still boasts six Quad-1 wins.
Vanderbilt, Michigan State and Ohio State should also be feeling fairly comfortable on the No. 3 line. After that group, though, the margins between teams become much thinner. While all teams currently seeded No. 6 or better remain in the running, there is little room for error for the Washingtons and North Carolinas of the world.
The only new addition to the top-four seeds this week is Ole Miss, which has flown a bit under the radar this season but picked up its biggest win this far on Friday against Vanderbilt. The Rebels replace a reeling Maryland team needing to rebound after losing four straight.
No conference is more up in the air than the Big 12, which has four teams (TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, West Virginia) hovering around the hosting cutoff. TCU is best positioned for now, but each game will be extra valuable down the stretch.
Bracketology -- Feb. 3
| Seed | Fort Worth 1 | Sacramento 2 | Fort Worth 3 | Sacramento 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 16 | Alabama A&M/MD Eastern Shore | California Baptist/Chattanooga |  |  |
| 2 |  |  |  |  |
| 15 |  |  |  |  |
| 3 |  |  |  |  |
| 14 |  |  |  |  |
| 4 |  |  |  |  |
| 13 |  |  |  |  |
| 5 |  |  |  |  |
| 12 |  |  |  |  |
| 6 |  |  |  |  |
| 11 |  | Arizona St./Clemson | Virginia Tech/Villanova |  |
| 7 |  |  |  |  |
| 10 |  |  |  |  |
| 8 |  |  |  |  |
| 9 |  |  |  |  |
On the bubble
Last four in
- Virginia Tech
- Villanova
- Arizona State
- Clemson
First four out
- BYU
- Fairfield
- Colorado
- Richmond
Next four out
- Virginia
- South Dakota State
- Miami (FL)
- Wisconsin
What to watch for
Can USC build a Big Ten win streak?
No team in the country has played a tougher schedule this season than USC, which has faced the No. 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 teams in the NET without JuJu Watkins. Teams aren't penalized much for individual losses against top opponents, but this time last week, USC was just 11-9 on the season despite a NET ranking in the top 25.
The Trojans' NCAA Tournament hopes were starting to be questioned following a 1-6 stretch, as teams with records near .500 rarely receive at-large bids. USC responded with a signature win over Iowa before holding Rutgers to just 39 points on Sunday.
With a favorable schedule over the next two weeks, USC has a chance to continue solidifying its resume and build toward a No. 5 or 6 seed, closer to expectations earlier in the season. Kara Dunn has been remarkable as of late, with 20 or more points in seven of the team's last eight games.
LSU eyes sweep of Texas, potential No. 1 seed
LSU has been a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament in each of its first four seasons under Kim Mulkey but is on track to finish higher this time around. The Tigers' offense has been unstoppable, with a whopping seven players averaging at least 10 points per game. LSU is outscoring opponents by 41.3 PPG this season, the highest margin by any team in the last 25 seasons. 12 games with at least 100 points is also the most by any team in that span.
Non-conference strength of schedule is usually a detractor for LSU, and this season is no exception, as the team ranks 276th. However, the SEC gives near-unlimited opportunities for quality wins. LSU has cashed in with Quad-1 wins against Texas, Oklahoma and Georgia, and plays in Austin on Thursday, looking for a season sweep of the Longhorns.
A win in that game would give LSU a strong head-to-head argument over Texas for the final No. 1 seed, while a loss would likely require LSU to win all of its remaining games and reach the final of the SEC Tournament for a chance at finishing on the top line.
