Women's NCAA basketball bracketology 2023: Caitlin Clark leads Iowa to projected No. 1 seed

COLLEGE BASKETBALL: MAR 05 Ohio State vs Iowa

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The first eight of 32 automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament were awarded over the weekend, and the Madness has already begun, as only two of those went to the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences.

South Carolina was the first top seed to survive, improving to 32-0 on the season. After falling in last year's SEC Championship Game to Kentucky, the Gamecocks have now won 38 straight. They're joined by Gardner-Webb (29-4), who went a perfect 21-0 in Big South regular-season and tournament play. The Runnin' Bulldogs haven't lost in the 2023 calendar year.

But those were the exceptions.

Saint Louis started the season 6-16 before flipping a switch in late January. The Billikens proceeded to win 11 of their final 12 games, culminating in an OT thriller over one of the best mid-majors in the country in UMass to win the Atlantic 10 title and go Dancing for the first time in school history.

Perhaps the unlikeliest conference tournament winner so far is Washington State, who, as the No. 7 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, won four straight games, including three against NET Top 25 competition (Utah, Colorado, UCLA), to win their first conference tournament championship.

With 24 golden tickets still up for grabs (including the Big East tonight and Big 12 on Selection Sunday), there's still plenty to play for, although we do have a good idea of where many teams will end up. Below are our projections:

Double asterisks (**) represent teams who have already won their conference tournaments. Single asterisks (*) are the highest-seeded teams in ongoing conference tourneys.

No. 1 Seeds

**South Carolina (SEC): 32-0, NET 1, SOS 18

It's a legitimate question to ask whether one would take South Carolina or the field in the NCAA Tournament. The Gamecocks are a very deep team. Senior Laeticia Amihere showed that by scoring 33 total points off the bench in the team's first two SEC Tournament games. However, the leaders can still take control as well. Zia Cooke and Aliyah Boston combined for 42 in a 74-58 win over Tennessee in the SEC Championship.

Indiana (Big Ten): 27-3, NET 5, SOS 22

Following a 26-1 start to the season, Indiana dropped two of their last three games of the season, including a 79-75 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Semifinals after leading by 20 at halftime. It's not an ideal way to head into the Big Dance but the Hoosiers' status as the No. 2 overall team in the field wasn't in doubt after Stanford and Utah both exited the Pac-12 tourney early.

Stanford (Pac-12): 28-5, NET 4, SOS 9

One-quarter of the top 32 teams in the NET reside in the Pac-12 and Stanford is a combined 11-3 against those highly rated conference foes. The Cardinal's 15 total wins against NET top 50 opponents is behind only South Carolina's 16. Seniors Haley Jones and Hannah Jump are members of the "it feels like they've been there forever" club and will look to reach their third-straight Final Four and win their second title after going all the way in 2021.

**Iowa (Big Ten): 26-6, NET 6, SOS 7

With a potential NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed on the line, Caitlin Clark turned in a vintage performance that dared the committee to put the Hawkeyes any lower and cemented her Player of the Year case. Clark had her 10th career triple-double (30p/10r/17a) as Iowa blitzed Ohio State 105-72 in a Big Ten title game that was 61-24 by halftime. Partner-in-crime Monika Czinano returned to form with 26 points on 11-12 shooting.

No. 2 Seeds

** Virginia Tech (ACC): 27-4, NET 9, SOS 19

The Hokies enter Selection Sunday as arguably the second-hottest team in the country (South Carolina is perennially on fire). Winners of 11 straight, Virginia Tech held NCAA Tournament teams Miami and Duke to a combined 79 points in the ACC quarterfinals and semifinals before beating Louisville in the final. It's a tight competition for the final No. 1 seed. I wouldn't be surprised to see Virginia Tech end up there, even if I have them just a tad off.

Maryland (Big Ten): 25-6, NET 13, SOS 5

Had the result of Maryland's tight loss to Iowa in the Big Ten Semifinals been reversed, it would be Maryland right there in the No. 1 seed debate. Instead, they'll most likely settle for a No. 2. Still, without a loss to a non-projected No. 1 seed in more than three months, there's no doubt the Terrapins have what it takes to make a Final Four run.

Utah (Pac-12): 25-4, NET 7, SOS 26

What was initially a surprise defeat to Washington State in the Pac-12 Quarterfinals looks better now that the Cougars won the tournament, but especially after Iowa and Virginia Tech's conference tourney runs, the Utes find themselves locked in as a No. 2 seed. It's still an incredible achievement for Lynne Roberts' team. Utah's previous-best NCAA Tournament seed was a No. 5 (done four times, most recently in 2006 when they made their first Elite Eight).

*UConn (Big East): 28-5, NET 2, SOS 3

Outside of the current top five, UConn is the last team I would consider in realistic contention for a No. 1 seed. They play Villanova in the Big East Championship Game with an opportunity to pick up an 11th NET Top 25 win, which would lead the nation. The Huskies have looked like themselves again in two games since the return of Azzi Fudd. Depending on tonight's result, I'll have the Huskies either behind Virginia Tech or at the top of the No. 3 line.

No. 3 Seeds

LSU (SEC): 28-2, NET 3, SOS 76

There are nine teams with strong arguments for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, and unfortunately, LSU may very well end up as the "have-not." Things may have been different had they beaten Tennessee in the SEC Semifinals and ended up with only losses to South Carolina on their resume. Instead, the Tigers have fallen to a second team and still possess just two NET Top 25 wins, while everyone above them has at least five.

Ohio State (Big Ten): 25-7, NET 16, SOS 11

The loss to Iowa was not pretty. Yet, it's not a game Ohio State was even supposed to play in. Wins over Michigan and Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament move the Buckeyes up to a No. 3 seed. After playing five consecutive games against the other top teams in the Big Ten (Indiana/Iowa/Maryland/Michigan) since Feb. 20, Ohio State has deserved this next week of rest before March Madness begins.

Notre Dame (ACC): 25-5, NET 8, SOS 29

The old saying goes that it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. Notre Dame has become well acquainted with Louisville in the last few weeks and finally fell to the Cardinals on Saturday in the third meeting between the teams in a span of just 17 days. After missing the ACC Tournament with her knee injury, Olivia Miles' health remains the lead story for a team that has double-digit wins over Virginia Tech and UConn on their resume.

Duke (ACC): 25-6, NET 10, SOS 10

Duke's offense has disappeared down the stretch. After failing to score more than 44 points in any of their last three games and cracking 60 just twice in their last 11 contests (they still managed to go 7-4 over that span), one has to wonder what would happen if and when they face higher-powered offenses in the NCAA Tournament. It's hard to imagine a team like Maryland (a potential Sweet 16 opponent), playing a game in the 50s.

No. 4 Seeds

Villanova (Big East): 28-5, NET 12, SOS 64

When you have Maddy Siegrist, you have a chance. The superstar was the only member of the Wildcats to score in double-figures against Creighton on Sunday, but her output wasn't just 10 or 12 - it was 37. Siegrist also added 11 rebounds in the 63-61 victory, and now, Villanova gets a shot at their first conference tournament title in 20 years.

*Texas (Big 12): 23-8, NET 11, SOS 37

The Longhorns effectively put an end to Kansas State's at-large hopes with an 80-52 road victory on Saturday to close out the regular season. It's possible the two teams will meet again in the Big 12 Quarterfinals, as Texas will face the winner of conference No. 8 seed Texas Tech and the No. 9 Wildcats. If the Lady Raiders advance, Texas will get the chance to end their season, too.

UCLA (Pac-12): 25-9, NET 22, SOS 8

UCLA couldn't quite seal the deal against Washington State, but by knocking off Stanford, the Bruins got the signature win they needed and will finish the season in my projected top 16. Freshman Kiki Rice had a career-high 22 points in that game, including shooting 12-13 from the free-throw line. Just like every Pac-12 team, UCLA is more than battle-tested for March.

Oklahoma (Big 12): 24-5, NET 36, SOS 51

The Sooners have won eight of their last nine games and finished the Big 12 regular season 14-2 against teams not named Texas. Leading scorer Madi Williams suffered a knee injury in their regular-season finale against in-state rival Oklahoma State and is questionable for the conference tournament. The team's nine leaders in minutes per game have all played in all 29 games this season up to this point.