Women's NCAA Tournament 2025: Buy or sell on questions surrounding UCLA, South Carolina, UConn and more

The 2025 Women's NCAA Tournament is already underway, and the opening First Four games on Wednesday provided plenty of drama. After two more First Four games on Thursday, the action will begin in full with Friday's first round games. 

The top two overall seeds, UCLA and South Carolina, will begin their tournament journeys on Friday, while UConn, USC and Texas, the other primary contenders, at least by seed and betting odds, will have to wait until Saturday. All of those teams should cruise through the opening weekend, and will have their sights set on the Final Four. 

As we wait for the top teams to take the court, this is a perfect time to play buy or sell with some narratives surrounding them. 

2025 Women's March Madness: Predictions, expert picks for the Final Four, national championship

CBS Sports Staff

With that being said, let's take a closer look at some of the prevailing opinions about the top five teams in the country, starting with the UCLA Bruins. 

Buy or sell: UCLA deserved to be the No. 1 overall seed

Ahead of Selection Sunday, CBS Sports bracketologist Connor Groel projected UCLA to receive the No. 1 overall seed. Sure enough, when the brackets were revealed, it was the Bruins on the top line for the first time in program history. 

Immediately, a debate began about whether or not they deserved that spot, and other team's coaches spoke out in the media. South Carolina's Dawn Staley gave her point of view. 

"I am not in the (selection) room, but obviously I think we did much more than probably any other No. 1 overall seed," Staley said. "We outdid ourselves even from last year with the amount of quality wins that we had, but I guess the committee was looking at something else.

"I will say this. We're going to make adjustments to our schedule in the future if the standard is the standard. If that's the standard, we can play any schedule and get the No. 1 seed."

And USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb also spoke her mind. 

"I never thought I'd be a 1-seed and feel disrespected," Gottlieb said. "... You know we've got a big game here on Saturday against UNCG and we'll handle it accordingly, but you tell me if you think that bracket that we got should've been the one that it was. I can't speak for the players, I think they're excited to play, but this was not on my bingo card to be a little bit frustrated after being a 1-seed, and it's not an arrogance of any kind.

"I think there's a lot of good teams and you've gotta play the first game in front of you and earn your way form there and that's what we'll do. But sometimes I don't understand people who make decisions in women's basketball and why they do what they do, and certainly with this committee I would love to ask some questions."

While South Carolina and USC both had great seasons, UCLA deserved the No. 1 overall seed. Among No. 1 seeds, they had the fewest losses (two) and the best winning percentage in Quad 1 games (.866). They also won the Big Ten Tournament, avenging their defeats to USC, and destroyed South Carolina when those two teams met head-to-head. 

On the whole, they were the best team in the country during the regular season. 

Verdict: Buy

Buy or sell: South Carolina got the easiest path

The ironic aspect of Staley's complaints about not being named the top overall seed is that you can make a case that South Carolina got treated like they were. 

In terms of NET rankings, there are only two other top-15 teams (Duke and West Virginia) in Birmingham 2, which is the fewest of any region, and South Carolina would only have to play one of them to get to the Final Four. If it ends up being Duke, who is the No. 2 seed, the Gamecocks would feel extremely confident considering they were up 25 on the Blue Devils earlier this season before a fake comeback made the final score seem respectable. 

If you want to look at it from a gambling perspective, South Carolina is the favorite to win it all at +235, per Caesars Sportsbook, and no one else in their region has better than +4000 odds (Duke). 

If the region goes chalk, here is who South Carolina would have to play: Tennessee Tech, Utah, Maryland and Duke. None of those teams would scare them. 

There's also the added benefit of staying on the East Coast for the entire tournament. They get to host the first two rounds, then travel just a few hundred miles to Birmingham for the regional games. If they make it to the Final Four in Tampa, they would have to travel less than 1,500 total miles. Compare that to the teams that were sent to Spokane, who will have to travel all the way back across the country for the Final Four. 

All told, the Gamecocks were treated more than fairly by the committee. 

Verdict: Buy

Buy or sell: Texas can win a national championship despite its offensive struggles

There are some numbers that would tell you Texas is a very good offensive team. The Longhorns are seventh in the country in offensive rating (112.6), second in offensive rebounding rate (43.5), 20th in turnover rate (15.4) and 28th in free throw rate (34.5). And, of course, they went 31-3 this season. 

When you watch them play, though, you often come away unimpressed, especially against other top teams. Never was that more clear than the SEC Tournament championship game against South Carolina, when the Longhorns scored a season-low 45 points on 29.6% shooting from the field and had more turnovers (18) than made baskets (16). 

Are they always going to be that bad? No, but that game highlighted Texas' offensive issues and raised the question of whether, despite its No. 1 seed, it can actually win a national championship. 

As great Texas is defensively, and as much as it can overwhelm opponents at times with its size and effort, it's hard to imagine the Longhorns winning six consecutive knockout games given how hard it is for them to score outside the paint -- and really outside of the restricted area. 

Here's the Longhorns shot chart for the season, via CBB Analytics. The only area they shoot above 40.6% is at the rim. 

Even more staggering is that they are 362nd, dead last in the country, in 3-point rate (17.1) and 244th in 3-point % (29.6). Here's how that compares to the last five national champions. (National rank in parenthesis)

While there have been other champs who didn't take a lot of 3s, they were generally very efficient when they did shoot them. South Carolina in 2022 is the only team with a similar profile to Texas, but they were the clear favorite that whole year, which is not the case for the Longhorns. 

It's not impossible for Texas to go on a run, but when you rarely take or make 3s, it puts a lot of pressure on your defense to be perfect. 

Verdict: Sell

Buy or sell: JuJu Watkins has enough help

Watkins led USC to the Elite Eight last season as a freshman while averaging 27.1 points per game. That was an incredible feat and a sign of Watkins' greatness, but the general consensus was that she had to do too much by herself for the Trojans to be a real contender. 

In the offseason, USC loaded up in the transfer portal, adding Kiki Iriafen and Talia von Oelhoffen, and welcomed a stellar freshman class, led by multiple five-star recruits, including Kennedy Smith. 

As a result, Watkins' usage rate has dropped from a ridiculous 42.7 to 32.6, and her scoring average from 27.1 points to 24.6. Iriafen, in particular, has provided a reliable interior presence to match Watkins' perimeter scoring. 

Still, there remains a question of whether Watkins has enough help for the Trojans to win it all. Iriafen puts up 18.2 points per game, but is the only other player scoring in double figures. And even though Watkins doesn't have to do quite as much for her team this season, she was still third in the country in field goal attempts per game at 18.6 and scored for over 30% of the Trojans' total points. Here's how that compares to other contenders' top scorers. 

There's a very real scenario where USC has to get through UConn, UCLA and South Carolina, the three favorites, to win a championship. Watkins is so brilliant that it's not out of the question for her to put the Trojans on her back and make that happen. It is concerning, though, that the Trojans are so reliant on her to create everything for them. 

Verdict: Sell

Buy or sell: UConn's 357th ranked free throw rate is a major concern

The Huskies are the best offensive team in the country. They're first in offensive rating (119.5), second in effective field goal % (57.7), sixth in 3-point % (37.7), 20th in assist rate (65.8) and fifth in turnover rate (13.8). 

They have the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft leading the way in Paige Bueckers, and a deep supporting cast, highlighted by Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd. One look at the Huskies' shot chart shows that they can score efficiently from anywhere on the court. 

The only thing the Huskies don't do well on the offensive end is get to the free throw line. They are a jump shooting team, and average just 11.4 free throws per game. Their 18.3% free throw rate ranks 357th in the country out of 362 teams. Those marks are far worse than any of the last five national champions. 

As well as the Huskies can shoot the ball, no team is perfect and they're likely going to have an off night at some point during this tournament. When that happens, will they be able to get to the line to manufacture easy points? For what it's worth, in their 10-worst 3-point shooting games this season, their free throw rate only increased slightly to 20.8%. 

The Huskies' inability to get to the line does register as a concern, but not a major one given how elite they are in every other major offensive category. 

Verdict: Sell