NFL insider 2025 mock draft: Shedeur Sanders falls out of first round, only one QB taken on Day 1

We're just a few days away from the most unpredictable draft I can remember since the 2020 year when no one knew what the hell was going on.

Despite that unpredictability, I developed some irrational confidence about how the top two, top three, top five picks would go as the weeks rolled along. They mostly align with the consensus, which is usually not a great thing when it comes to the draft.

But in a draft that seemingly lacks Gold Jacket guys (and we'll need a decade-plus to determine how accurate that sentiment is), the answers may be plainly in front of you.

It has been repeated throughout this pre-draft process that this is a great year to trade back. The problem with that is someone has to want to trade up, and then both teams have to agree on the compensation. If the entire market wants to trade down, you can assume the price will be lower than it typically is. Will GMs be willing to take a value less than what their chart dictates? Will they understand this draft — like all other drafts — is an entity all to itself?

That's something I'm keeping in mind in the upcoming week, especially where it concerns new GMs. The Jaguars, Raiders and Jets are picking No. 5-7 and all have new men in charge. It's possible, if not likely, one of them will be the first team to trade back, and the rest of a reactive league will be able to copy off their paper when it comes to the value of a trade back.

Will a new GM — someone who has dreamed for decades of finally being in this chair — be willing to potentially take less compensation than in previous years to execute a trade-back in the top-10?

Here's my one and only mock for the 2025 NFL draft.

You may notice there's no Shedeur Sanders — or any quarterback of any name other than Cam Ward — in this mock. Sanders could be the next rookie Giants quarterback at No. 3, as I write below. Or he could be a target in the late-first or early-second rounds like other quarterbacks, as referenced in here. 

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with analyst Ryan Wilson. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.

NFL Mock Draft

Round 1

Round 1 - Pick 1 Cam Ward QB Miami (FL) • Soph • 6'2" / 219 lbs Projected Team Tennessee PROSPECT RNK 3rd POSITION RNK 1st PAYDS 4313 RUYDS 204 INTS 7 TDS 43 This one has been known for more than a month. The Titans didn't make a play for a legitimate QB in free agency because they were already locked in on Ward. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Tennessee deal Will Levis at some point before training camp, and I would expect them to add a pass rusher and/or receiver on Day 2.

Round 1 - Pick 2 Travis Hunter ATH Colorado • Soph • 6'1" / 185 lbs Projected Team Cleveland PROSPECT RNK 1st POSITION RNK 1st REC 96 REYDS 1,258 YDS/REC 13.1 TDS 15 The Browns are saying they'll play him at receiver more than corner, which Hunter must love considering the payday coming his way in three years if he plays the position well. Yes, they need a quarterback, but after Ward goes to Tennessee, they weren't getting a signal caller at No. 2. They'll have to settle for the top player on the board.

Round 1 - Pick 3 Abdul Carter EDGE Penn State • Soph • 6'3" / 252 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Giants PROSPECT RNK 2nd POSITION RNK 1st Big Blue has done nearly two years of homework on Shedeur Sanders and a crash course this week on everyone else. I can't rule out a QB at No. 3 here, but I don't think that's what happens. The Giants take the draft's best pass rusher and solidify that front for years to come.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Will Campbell OT LSU • Soph • 6'6" / 319 lbs Projected Team New England PROSPECT RNK 6th POSITION RNK 1st Even if Carter is available here, I still think the Pats take an offensive tackle here. Campbell appears to be the pick. The arm length doesn't seem to be a factor, especially since the pre-draft measurements were all over the place and he's closer to 33 inches anyway.

Round 1 - Pick 5 Mason Graham DL Michigan • Soph • 6'4" / 315 lbs Projected Team Jacksonville PROSPECT RNK 5th POSITION RNK 1st The Wolverine has a championship pedigree and wrestling background that will fit perfectly in what the new Jags regime is trying to build. Graham fits an obvious need for Jacksonville, even if he doesn't have the desired length inside.

Round 1 - Pick 6 Ashton Jeanty RB Boise State • Soph • 5'8" / 208 lbs Projected Team Las Vegas PROSPECT RNK 10th POSITION RNK 1st RUYDS 2601 YDS/ATT 7 REYDS 138 TDS 30 The longer the wait for the draft, the more nit-picking goes on about top players. Jeanty isn't the perfect running back prospect to be taken in the top-10, but he's a home-run hitter who can change a game. The Raiders need more play-makers, and they'll figure out their corner issue somewhere this weekend

Round 1 - Pick 7 Armand Membou OT Missouri • Soph • 6'4" / 332 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Jets PROSPECT RNK 7th POSITION RNK 2nd This pick is all about maximizing Justin Fields. You could convince me this will be Tyler Warren here, especially after the Jets missed out on Brock Bowers last year, and I wouldn't bat an eye. Many around the league see Campbell and Membou as equals.

Round 1 - Pick 8 Jalon Walker EDGE Georgia • Soph • 6'2" / 245 lbs Projected Team Carolina PROSPECT RNK 9th POSITION RNK 2nd Mocks have the Panthers taking Walker and for good reason. One executive told me he's "Roquan Smith with a lot more pass rush." This defense needs some dudes and Walker is a dude.

Round 1 - Pick 9 Kelvin Banks Jr. OT Texas • Soph • 6'5" / 315 lbs Projected Team New Orleans PROSPECT RNK 9th POSITION RNK 3rd Some view him as a guard due to his length, but I think it's more because he's such a solid run-blocker. Barely 21 years old and 6-foot-5, he can grow as a pass blocker. Whether he sticks at tackle or guard, New Orleans gets position versatility here.

Round 1 - Pick 10 Tyler Warren TE Penn State • Soph • 6'6" / 256 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 30th POSITION RNK 2nd REC 104 REYDS 1233 YDS/REC 11.9 TDS 12 Chicago has to worry that New Orleans could get Warren here (or trade back and let someone else get him), but the sit patiently and get the tight end. The Bears already have Cole Kmet, but a move like this isn't unprecedented. The Eagles drafted Dallas Goedert after Zach Ertz's fifth season in the league to ensure they had the position locked down for a decade-plus.

Round 1 - Pick 11 Walter Nolen DL Ole Miss • Soph • 6'4" / 300 lbs Projected Team San Francisco PROSPECT RNK 15th POSITION RNK 2nd Nolen's talent is undeniable, but there are several teams who wouldn't take him this high. It could be a risky pick, but it fits an obvious need for San Francisco and Nolen can mature his entire game with the Niners.

Round 1 - Pick 12 Matthew Golden WR Texas • Soph • 5'11" / 191 lbs Projected Team Dallas PROSPECT RNK 22nd POSITION RNK 3rd REC 58 REYDS 987 YDS/REC 17 TDS 9 The Cowboys could go any number of directions here, including pass rusher, but I'm not sure they'll be able to resist adding a receiver with their first pick. Dallas watched the Texas (and Houston) product crush the win-or-go-home games down the stretch last season and then saw him run a 4.29.

Round 1 - Pick 13 Josh Simmons OT Ohio State • Soph • 6'5" / 310 lbs Projected Team Miami PROSPECT RNK 16th POSITION RNK 4th Multiple sources have indicated Simmons' knee looks great upon medical rechecks, so he passes there. His play is a good scheme fit for Miami too. Many believe there's a chance he could have been OT1 in this draft. I know some teams also wouldn't take him this high, but Miami takes a chance on a position of need.

Round 1 - Pick 14 Colston Loveland TE Michigan • Soph • 6'6" / 241 lbs Projected Team Indianapolis PROSPECT RNK 12th POSITION RNK 1st REC 56 REYDS 582 YDS/REC 10.4 TDS 5 Nearly every year Chris Ballard has one of the tallest teams in all of football, so why not add the 6-foot-5 tight end to the mix? Indy lost Kylen Granson in free agency and needs all the weapons it can get to make sure the Colts make the right decision at quarterback.

Round 1 - Pick 15 James Pearce Jr. EDGE Tennessee • Soph • 6'5" / 242 lbs Projected Team Atlanta PROSPECT RNK 20th POSITION RNK 4th The Falcons have the fewest sacks in the entire NFL since 2018, so that must change with their first-round pick. At this point in the mock, Pearce has to be the best pure pass rusher on their board, with 17 1/2 sacks in the past two seasons along with three forced fumbles.

Mock Trade from Arizona Cardinals Round 1 - Pick 16 Tetairoa McMillan WR Arizona • Soph • 6'5" / 212 lbs Projected Team Seattle PROSPECT RNK 5th POSITION RNK 1st REC 84 REYDS 1319 YDS/REC 15.7 TDS 8 If the Colts hadn't spent so many recent draft resources on receivers, McMillan would be in Indy. Seattle knows Cards GM Monti Ossenfort loves to trade back, and Seattle has the capital to move up a couple picks with the division rival to get a much-needed receiver.

Round 1 - Pick 17 Tyler Booker IOL Alabama • Soph • 6'5" / 330 lbs Projected Team Cincinnati PROSPECT RNK 23rd POSITION RNK 1st The Bengals could go defensive line or linebacker here, but there's clearly a need along the offensive line and you probably won't get anywhere near the player Booker is later in the draft. An earlier version of this mock had Booker going No. 25, and after more calls last week I realized he shouldn't be there then.

Mock Trade from Seattle Seahawks Round 1 - Pick 18 Mykel Williams EDGE Georgia • Soph • 6'5" / 267 lbs Projected Team Arizona PROSPECT RNK 24th POSITION RNK 5th He's long and strong and not even 21 years old yet. In reality, Arizona may not mess around and trade back with him on the board, but this is my mock. And for a third year in a row they use a top-41 pick on a pass rusher.

Round 1 - Pick 19 Will Johnson CB Michigan • Soph • 6'2" / 200 lbs Projected Team Tampa Bay PROSPECT RNK 17th POSITION RNK 1st The Bucs tried to get a corner in free agency and missed out on their top targets. After Hunter, Johnson is the top cornerback in this draft but slips because of a lack of speed. Tampa Bay is just fine with that.

Round 1 - Pick 20 Omarion Hampton RB North Carolina • Soph • 6'0" / 220 lbs Projected Team Denver PROSPECT RNK 39th POSITION RNK 2nd RUYDS 1660 YDS/ATT 5.9 REYDS 373 TDS 17 This pairing seems to obvious to me and the rest of the NFL that the Broncos may actually have to trade up to make sure they get the guy everyone believes they'll take. Denver's made no secret of needing a running back, and the Tar Heel is clearly the best available here.

Round 1 - Pick 21 Kenneth Grant DL Michigan • Soph • 6'3" / 335 lbs Projected Team Pittsburgh PROSPECT RNK 36th POSITION RNK 4th If you're waiting for a QB to be drafted here, keep waiting. Cam Heyward doesn't have many years left and Pittsburgh needs interior defensive line help. Grant is remarkably athletic for his size.

Round 1 - Pick 22 Shemar Stewart EDGE Texas A&M • Soph • 6'5" / 267 lbs Projected Team L.A. Chargers PROSPECT RNK 32nd POSITION RNK 6th REC 56 REYDS 582 YDS/REC 10.4 TDS 5 The draft can be cruel, and that's seen above where Pittsburgh takes a Michigan man just before Jim Harbaugh is on the clock. No matter, the Chargers eye a pass rusher in Stewart, who is always around the quarterback but never finishing (which is what causes him to fall in this mock.) The Bolts need some youth at pass rush, and they'll coach up Stewart to get the sacks.

Round 1 - Pick 23 Jahdae Barron CB Texas • Soph • 5'11" / 200 lbs Projected Team Green Bay PROSPECT RNK 21st POSITION RNK 2nd I had one coach call Barron the "best defensive back in the draft," meaning he could ultimately play a number of positions in the span of his career. It seems extremely unlikely Jaire Alexander is back with the Pack, so nabbing Barron here makes a lot of sense.

Mock Trade from Minnesota Vikings Round 1 - Pick 24 Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina • Soph • 6'3" / 220 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 20th POSITION RNK 2nd The Vikings have just four picks in this draft, and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has never been shy about trading in his division. Here, the Bears use one of their second-round picks to nab the South Carolina safety who may not even be available by pick No. 24 but surely won't be there when the deep-playoff teams from last year begin selecting. Bears continue a very aggressive offseason with two first-round trade-ups!

Round 1 - Pick 25 Grey Zabel IOL North Dakota State • Soph • 6'6" / 316 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 27th POSITION RNK 2nd This is usually around the time a center gets taken in the draft, but the Texans could use Zabel as a center or guard moving forward. Houston's offseason plan has been to add a couple linemen in the draft, and they start early with the versatile interior lineman.

Round 1 - Pick 26 Jihaad Campbell LB Alabama • Soph • 6'3" / 235 lbs Projected Team L.A. Rams PROSPECT RNK 13th POSITION RNK 1st As much as I would love to send L.A. a quarterback here, there are simply greater needs for the championship-window Rams and the value is off the charts. It's possible Campbell goes to Cincy or Tampa in the teens, and I think the Rams would be quite pleased to get the Alabama backer right here. I'm told his recovery from shoulder surgery is going well and there shouldn't be concerns for his 2025 availability.

Round 1 - Pick 27 Donovan Ezeiruaku EDGE Boston College • Soph • 6'2" / 255 lbs Projected Team Baltimore PROSPECT RNK 40th POSITION RNK 8th Here's a guy who has shot up boards because of how well he's handled the entire pre-draft process. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year could deliver similar sack production in Baltimore in a way that's desperately needed there.

Round 1 - Pick 28 Josh Conerly Jr. OT Oregon • Soph • 6'4" / 315 lbs Projected Team Detroit PROSPECT RNK 35th POSITION RNK 5th Detroit obviously needs an edge rusher, but great teams keep their strengths strong. Conerly has a great athletic background that showed in his pre-draft testing, and Dan Campbell will love how much he loves ball.

Mock Trade from Washington Commanders Round 1 - Pick 29 Luther Burden III WR Missouri • Soph • 6'0" / 210 lbs Projected Team Tennessee PROSPECT RNK 14th POSITION RNK 2nd REC 61 REYDS 676 YDS/REC 11.1 TDS 8 Washington scoots back just to 35 to let the Titans come up and get the receiver. Tennessee gets Cam Ward a slot target with great run-after-the-catch ability whose talent is that of a player getting picked in the teens.

Round 1 - Pick 30 Maxwell Hairston CB Kentucky • Soph • 5'11" / 192 lbs Projected Team Buffalo PROSPECT RNK 26th POSITION RNK 3rd There are a few positions the Bills could go here, and trading back is definitely in the cards. Most teams have Hairston at a tick below Johnson and Barron but above the next crop of corners. The Tre White signing from last week hardly precludes the Bills from doing business at that position here.

Round 1 - Pick 31 Donovan Jackson IOL Ohio State • Soph • 6'4" / 324 lbs Projected Team Kansas City PROSPECT RNK 39th POSITION RNK 3rd Kansas City needs offensive linemen, and it's better to get one here than wait and hope for one in the 60s. Aireontae Ersery is tantalizing here (in part because he's a local), but the Chiefs also need a lineman with some versatility. Jackson showed he can play guard and tackle at the highest level last season for the Buckeyes.

Mock Trade from Philadelphia Eagles Round 1 - Pick 32 Emeka Egbuka WR Ohio State • Soph • 6'1" / 205 lbs Projected Team Las Vegas PROSPECT RNK 14th POSITION RNK 1st REC 81 REYDS 1011 YDS/REC 12.5 TDS 10 Howie Roseman is always willing to make a deal, and he slides back five spots here. The Raiders have to get pass catchers, and they'd be stoked if a pro's pro like Egbuka is here waiting for them.

The 2025 NFL Draft will take place from April 24 to 26 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including daily mock drafts, consensus prospect rankings, biggest team needs and more.