What Vegas says will happen: 2026 NFL mock draft built entirely on betting odds

Welcome to Draft Day. Yesterday, I unveiled my annual NFL mock draft based solely on how the betting market sees the draft, and since then, the betting market has seen some shifting around, starting at No. 2. So we're going to run a Draft Day update for this exercise, which takes into account the odds for players to go at each specific pick in the top 20 but leans primarily on two other factors the further we get from the top: the over/under on a player's draft position and the odds for the position of each team's first pick. All odds used are from DraftKings.

When it comes to making picks in this mock draft, we start with a player's draft position over/under or the odds that he will go top five, top 10 or in the first round. That can create a little friction; for example, Sonny Styles is the fifth-most likely player to go in the top five but only at +100, while his draft position over/under has him at -130 to go over 5.5. We're going to give more weight to the -130 side and make sure he's not a top-five pick and stick to that method for every other draft position over/under. 

Our other consideration is the position of a team's first pick, where we are able to match them without violating our previous rule. With the Lions at -380 to take an offensive lineman first, we will make sure they take an offensive lineman first. But when a team isn't as strong at one position, like with the Chiefs having a close split between offensive line, defensive line, corner and receiver, we have more leeway. If a team had minus odds to take a position first, I did my best to stick to that, including trading around the board three times where a prospect wouldn't fit for the initial team but we wanted him inside a certain range.

With that explanation out of the way, let's get to the picks.

The 2026 NFL Draft will take place Thursday through Saturday in Pittsburgh. You can find more draft coverage at CBSSports.com, including weekly mock drafts and regular evaluations of the top prospects.

NFL Mock Draft

Round 1

Round 1 - Pick 1 Fernando Mendoza QB Indiana • 6'5" / 225 lbs Projected Team Las Vegas PROSPECT RNK 1st POSITION RNK 1st PAYDS 3535 RUYDS 276 INTS 6 TDS 48 He's -20000 to be picked first, and he's going to be picked first.

Round 1 - Pick 2 David Bailey EDGE Texas Tech • 6'3" / 250 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Jets PROSPECT RNK 20th POSITION RNK 3rd We're already into our first Draft Day update, as Reese and Bailey ping-ponged back and forth between being the favorite to go No. 2 on Wednesday before Bailey settled in as the slight favorite heading into Thursday.

Mock Trade from Arizona Cardinals Round 1 - Pick 3 Arvell Reese EDGE Ohio State • 6'4" / 243 lbs Projected Team New Orleans PROSPECT RNK 3rd POSITION RNK 2nd With Reese available, we're going to have a team trading up like I did in my Monday mock with the Chiefs, but this time it'll be the Saints. If they package their first three picks and a 2027 second, it would be enough to get to No. 3 in a normal draft, but in this class they might be able to get away with a lesser offer, or may be able to get No. 104 back.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame • 6'0" / 214 lbs Projected Team Tennessee PROSPECT RNK 7th POSITION RNK 1st RUYDS 1372 YDS/ATT 6.9 REYDS 280 TDS 21 The odds have tightened here with Love down to +135 to be the pick after being the odds-on favorite for the last week, with Sonny Styles close behind at +165. The market still has Styles as a slight favorite to be taken sixth or later though, so we'll stick with this pick.

Round 1 - Pick 5 Caleb Downs S Ohio State • 5'11" / 206 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Giants PROSPECT RNK 8th POSITION RNK 1st REC 61 REYDS 711 YDS/REC 11.7 TDS 9 Sonny Styles is the next shortest favorite to be a top five pick, but the over/under market still has him as -130 to be taken no higher than sixth, so we're ruling him out here. However, Downs shifted from a slight favorite on Over 9.5 to Under 9.5 heading into Draft Day, and that puts him in play for this pick, where he is third favorite behind Styles and Jordyn Tyson.

Mock Trade from Cleveland Browns Round 1 - Pick 6 Sonny Styles LB Ohio State • 6'5" / 243 lbs Projected Team Dallas PROSPECT RNK 9th POSITION RNK 1st We're not slotting Carnell Tate in here as the market has him favored to be taken eighth or later, and the other possibility for Cleveland is offensive lineman, but all are fringe top-10 picks with the most likely, Spencer Fano, 12th in that market. So we'll put together a trade up for Dallas, who give up Nos. 12, 20, 92 and a 2027 second but get No. 24 back as well.

Round 1 - Pick 7 Jordyn Tyson WR Arizona State • 6'1" / 195 lbs Projected Team Washington PROSPECT RNK 23rd POSITION RNK 5th REC 61 REYDS 711 YDS/REC 11.7 TDS 9 This is still too early for Tate but not too early for Tyson, who is -185 to go in the first eight picks. That takes precedence for us over Tate being -130 to be the first receiver selected.

Mock Trade from New Orleans Saints Round 1 - Pick 8 Francis Mauigoa OT Miami (Fla.) • 6'6" / 315 lbs Projected Team Arizona PROSPECT RNK 16th POSITION RNK 4th REC 51 REYDS 875 YDS/REC 17.2 TDS 9 The Cardinals move down and get into better position to select an offensive lineman first, and while there is speculation Mauigoa could suffer a mini-slide due to a herniated disk, he's still -185 to be selected in the top 10, which is better than anyone else available here but Tate.

Round 1 - Pick 9 Carnell Tate WR Ohio State • 6'2" / 192 lbs Projected Team Kansas City PROSPECT RNK 18th POSITION RNK 3rd REC 51 REYDS 875 YDS/REC 17.2 TDS 9 Tate isn't among the favorites for this pick, but that's likely because he's expected to go a pick or two higher and have less of a chance to be available. He's -700 to be a top-10 pick versus -135 or lower for any of the remaining prospects, so we're going to take him off the board here.

Mock Trade from New York Giants Round 1 - Pick 10 Rueben Bain Jr. EDGE Miami (Fla.) • 6'3" / 270 lbs Projected Team Tampa Bay PROSPECT RNK 2nd POSITION RNK 1st Bain, Mansoor Delane and Spencer Fano are all about the same odds to be a top-10 pick, so we should be fine going with any of them here for the Giants. Delane is the lowest odds for this pick, but would New York really go two secondary players in the top 10? Instead, they move down and send this pick and No. 105 to Tampa Bay for No. 15 and 46, with the Bucs expected to go edge rusher with their original pick.

Round 1 - Pick 11 Mansoor Delane CB LSU • 5'11" / 187 lbs Projected Team Miami PROSPECT RNK 14th POSITION RNK 3rd Delane just misses out on going in the top 10, and the Dolphins will have a choice to make here between him and an offensive lineman, with both Mauigoa and Spencer Fano slightly ahead of Delane in odds to be this pick specifically.

Mock Trade from Dallas Cowboys Round 1 - Pick 12 Spencer Fano OT Utah • 6'6" / 302 lbs Projected Team Cleveland PROSPECT RNK 5th POSITION RNK 2nd The Browns move down and still get the guy many project will be taken sixth overall in Fano. They're able to move up four spots later in the first round and get No. 92 and a second-rounder next year while doing so, which would definitely be seen as a win. This closes out our group of edge cases for the top 10 in the market as well.

Round 1 - Pick 13 Makai Lemon WR USC • 5'11" / 192 lbs Projected Team L.A. Rams PROSPECT RNK 17th POSITION RNK 2nd REC 79 REYDS 1156 YDS/REC 14.6 TDS 13 Lemon and the Rams have been a popular pairing throughout mock draft season, and he's the +225 favorite to be the pick here. The Rams are also +100 to make receiver their first pick, with offensive line next at +185.

Round 1 - Pick 14 Olaivavega Ioane IOL Penn State • 6'4" / 320 lbs Projected Team Baltimore PROSPECT RNK 15th POSITION RNK 1st Ioane is -310 to go Under 14.5, so this is his absolute floor in this exercise. He's also the favorite for this pick at +225, with his next lowest odds at No. 10 (+500) in that market. The Ravens are +130 favorites to go with an offensive lineman first as well.

Mock Trade from Tampa Bay Buccaneers Round 1 - Pick 15 Kenyon Sadiq TE Oregon • 6'3" / 245 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Giants PROSPECT RNK 24th POSITION RNK 1st REC 51 REYDS 560 YDS/REC 11 TDS 8 We're sticking with Sadiq here despite this pick now belonging to the Giants because we know how much John Harbaugh leaned on multiple tight ends in Baltimore, bringing one of them to the Ravens on a free agent deal. This lets us keep Sadiq in the top 15, where he's slightly favored to go.

Mock Trade from New York Jets Round 1 - Pick 16 Kadyn Proctor OT Alabama • 6'7" / 369 lbs Projected Team Philadelphia PROSPECT RNK 4th POSITION RNK 1st This trade results in Proctor being -220 to go Under 16.5 but not considered a match specifically for the Jets at 16th, where the market has him at +1500 -- tied for ninth in odds behind several players still on the board. So the Eagles send Nos. 23 and 68 to move up, as they are -250 to take an offensive lineman first and know Detroit would take Proctor next.

Round 1 - Pick 17 Monroe Freeling OT Georgia • 6'7" / 315 lbs Projected Team Detroit PROSPECT RNK 25th POSITION RNK 5th Freeling is a fine consolation prize for the Lions, and he's the second favorite behind Proctor to be the 17th overall pick. The Lions are -380 to go offensive line first, and Freeling is -250 to be taken before No. 20, so this is an easy pick.

Round 1 - Pick 18 Dillon Thieneman S Oregon • 6'0" / 205 lbs Projected Team Minnesota PROSPECT RNK 47th POSITION RNK 3rd This is the first spot where we could take Thieneman, who is -215 to go Over 17.5, and the Vikings are a rare team favored to take safety first at +130. Another oft-mocked pick that makes a lot of sense in this exercise.

Round 1 - Pick 19 Blake Miller OT Clemson • 6'6" / 315 lbs Projected Team Carolina PROSPECT RNK 29th POSITION RNK 6th REC 69 REYDS 937 YDS/REC 13.6 TDS 14 We're going with a tackle here as Carolina is more likely to go offensive lineman (+175) than receiver (+280), according to the market. Miller is the biggest lock to be a Round 1 pick of anyone left beside Omar Cooper Jr., according to the odds for that prop.

Mock Trade from Dallas Cowboys Round 1 - Pick 20 Omar Cooper Jr. WR Indiana • 6'0" / 204 lbs Projected Team Cleveland PROSPECT RNK 21st POSITION RNK 4th REC 69 REYDS 937 YDS/REC 13.6 TDS 14 The Browns move up thanks to their previous trade, which allows them to get ahead of a few teams for a receiver. That could be Cooper or KC Concepcion, but we're going with the guy who is a bigger first-round lock as well as has a lower draft position over/under.

Round 1 - Pick 21 KC Concepcion WR Texas A&M • 5'11" / 190 lbs Projected Team Pittsburgh PROSPECT RNK 12th POSITION RNK 1st REC 61 REYDS 919 YDS/REC 15.1 TDS 12 The Steelers were favored to go offensive lineman in our first mock draft but that's swung to receiver in this update, and even though Denzel Boston may be a better fit, he's -125 to go outside the top 26, so we're going to stick Concepcion (-130 for Under 24.5) here.

Round 1 - Pick 22 Akheem Mesidor EDGE Miami (Fla.) • 6'3" / 280 lbs Projected Team L.A. Chargers PROSPECT RNK 30th POSITION RNK 4th My initial run through the data had Mesidor as a slight favorite to go Over 25.5, which locked him out of the top 25, but that changed while working on this piece with him moving as a slight favorite to go Under 25.5, which has gained a ton of steam with him being connected to the Bucs at No. 15 in many final mock drafts.

Mock Trade from Philadelphia Eagles Round 1 - Pick 23 Colton Hood CB Tennessee • 6'0" / 195 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Jets PROSPECT RNK 59th POSITION RNK 9th REC 61 REYDS 919 YDS/REC 15.1 TDS 12 The Jets get shut out of the receiver market in their trade down, so instead pivot to the top cornerback remaining in the Round 1 market. Hood is -300 to go in Round 1, which is better than Jermod McCoy, who is favored to go outside the top 28. That keeps him from being our pick here anyway.

Mock Trade from Cleveland Browns Round 1 - Pick 24 Keldric Faulk EDGE Auburn • 6'5" / 274 lbs Projected Team Dallas PROSPECT RNK 46th POSITION RNK 8th The Cowboys move back a few spots and still get their guy in Faulk, who is -700 to be a first-round pick. That puts him right in this range of our prospect board anyway, so Dallas is able to come out of this draft with him and Styles.

Round 1 - Pick 25 Malachi Lawrence LB UCF • 6'4" / 253 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 52nd POSITION RNK 5th I initially had Lawrence at No. 22 before Mesidor's shift inside the top 25. With the Bears -120 to take a defensive lineman/edge rusher first, the last EDGE on our top-32 board is a good fit here.

Mock Trade from Buffalo Bills Round 1 - Pick 26 Ty Simpson QB Alabama • 6'2" / 208 lbs Projected Team Arizona PROSPECT RNK 11th POSITION RNK 2nd PAYDS 3567 RUYDS 93 INTS 5 TDS 30 The Bills don't have an edge rusher/defensive lineman available in our top 32, and we're looking for a trade-up spot for Simpson, who is -270 to go Over 24.5 but the last player in our top 32 based on Round 1 odds. A swap of second- and third-round picks in 2027 makes sense for the value, but if the Cardinals want to stick to this year, they could offer Nos. 34, 65 and 183 for this pick and No. 91.

Round 1 - Pick 27 Caleb Lomu OT Utah • 6'6" / 303 lbs Projected Team San Francisco PROSPECT RNK 13th POSITION RNK 3rd We initially had Max Iheanachor as the pick here over Lomu, but the latter has shifted to being a stronger lock to go in the first round at -700 versus -650. He becomes the heir apparent to Trent Williams in San Francisco.

Round 1 - Pick 28 Max Iheanachor OT Arizona State • 6'6" / 330 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 31st POSITION RNK 7th The Texans are -230 to go offensive lineman first, and luckily there's one tackle left here for them to take in Iheanachor. If he's off the board, we could still go this route with Chase Bisontis, who is lower than a few others to go in Round 1 but not enough so that we should force another position to Houston.

From Los Angeles Rams Round 1 - Pick 29 Jermod McCoy CB Tennessee • 6'0" / 193 lbs Projected Team Kansas City PROSPECT RNK 6th POSITION RNK 1st This is the first spot we could take McCoy, who is -160 to be taken outside the top 28, but he's also slightly ahead of Chris Johnson on the Round 1 odds board. That means the Chiefs take the plunge on a potential top-tier corner if he can stay healthy.

From Denver Broncos Round 1 - Pick 30 Emmanuel McNeil-Warren S Toledo • 6'2" / 202 lbs Projected Team Miami PROSPECT RNK 22nd POSITION RNK 2nd REC 62 REYDS 881 YDS/REC 14.2 TDS 12 McNeil-Warren was more of a sure thing to go in Round 1 in our initial version of the mock, but now he's right on the edge of being a Round 1 pick along with Peter Woods. The Dolphins could also make this pick Denzel Boston if they wanted to go the receiver route.

Round 1 - Pick 31 Denzel Boston WR Washington • 6'4" / 209 lbs Projected Team New England PROSPECT RNK 45th POSITION RNK 8th REC 62 REYDS 881 YDS/REC 14.2 TDS 12 The Patriots don't have a positional market at DraftKings, so we're left deciding between a receiver and corner, with the former making more sense for their depth chart. Boston could go a little higher than this as he's just -125 to go Over 26.5, and the Chiefs and Dolphins both make some sense after neither went receiver earlier.

Round 1 - Pick 32 Chris Johnson CB San Diego State • 6'0" / 195 lbs Projected Team Seattle PROSPECT RNK 27th POSITION RNK 5th The final player left on our top 32 board is Johnson, and the Seahawks are favored to go cornerback first at +155. This is certainly a trade-down spot as well, especially if Simpson is still on the board, but with Johnson at -250 to go in Round 1 and no one else available shorter than -200, he's our pick here.