2025-26 NBA futures: Inside the Lines team's best bets to make playoffs, win championship at All-Star break

Repeating as NBA champion wasn't that uncommon back in the day as nine teams accomplished the feat before the start of the 21st century, with three of them winning three consecutive titles and the Boston Celtics capturing eight in a row from 1959-66. It has become less frequent of late, with only four clubs successfully defending their title over the last 25 years.

The Los Angeles Lakers have repeated twice in that span, winning in 2001 and 2002 to complete a string of three straight titles, while the Miami Heat (2012-13) and Golden State Warriors (2017-18) also joined the club. The Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to become the latest members.

Oklahoma City stormed out of the gate this season, winning 24 of its first 25 games. It has leveled off since then, going 18-13, but still owns the best record in the Western Conference at 42-14 despite having been without its top two scorers of late.

Reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is second in the league in scoring with an average of 31.8 points, has missed the Thunder's last five games with an abdominal strain. Second on the team at 17.5 points per game, Jalen Williams has played in only two of the team's past 13 contests due to a nagging hamstring injury. Oklahoma City has gone 2-3 without Gilgeous-Alexander and 5-6 with Williams out of the lineup.

Despite their recent stretch of mediocrity and current injury problems, the Thunder are clear-cut favorites to win their second straight NBA championship at the major sportsbooks. They are listed between +130 and +145 while the Denver Nuggets are the unanimous second choice, ranging from +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook to +550 at FanDuel, Caesars and BetMGM.

Bet on the NBA at FanDuel and get $100 in bonus bets:

SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is in complete agreement with the sportsbooks. The team's projection model's simulations have Oklahoma City winning the championship well over 35% of the time. No team takes the title in more than 18% of the simulations, with Boston being the closest at 17.66%.

The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons, has crunched the numbers on the remainder of the 2025-26 season. The model has projections on each team's playoff probability, as well as their chances to win the conference and the NBA championship. Based on the odds being offered at the top sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

Get up to a $250 first bet match when you sign up with the Caesars Sportsbook promo code CBSSPORTS:

Model's NBA Eastern Conference playoff projections and odds

Model's NBA Western Conference playoff projections and odds

While -575 at DraftKings on the Philadelphia 76ers to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model's projection of 86.5%, a bettor still has to wager $575 to win $100 and lock up that money for close to two months to do so. According to the model, there is better value on teams such as the Warriors and Charlotte Hornets.

Now we'll take a closer look at three of the model's top plays for the 2025-26 NBA postseason.

Place NBA bets at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins:

1. Golden State Warriors to make playoffs (-150, DraftKings)

• Playoff probability model projection: 62.3%

The Warriors participated in the play-in tournament each of the last two seasons, losing out on a postseason spot in 2023-24 before earning one last campaign. They needed seven games to defeat the Houston Rockets in the first round before losing in five to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals.

Golden State currently occupies a play-in spot as it is eighth in the West with a 29-26 record. The club is hoping the All-Star break helps it get on track as it lost seven of its final 11 contests prior to the hiatus. 

Eight of the Warriors' final 17 conference games are against teams below them in the standings, while five of their 10 interconference opponents have inferior records. They have two meetings with both the league-worst Sacramento Kings and the Washington Wizards, who are last in the East.

The Warriors also face the Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans -- all of whom have 19 or fewer wins. If they clean up against all of these weaker teams, they'll have a solid chance at climbing into the top six in the West and avoiding a third straight appearance in the play-in tournament. Regardless, the ITL team's model still likes their chances of earning a postseason berth.

Earn bonus bets with the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS:

2. Oklahoma City Thunder to win NBA championship (+135, DraftKings)

• Championship probability model projection: 35.47%

You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone that doesn't think Oklahoma City will repeat as NBA champion. The Thunder are heavy favorites at all the major sportsbooks, as well as with the ITL team's model, which has them winning the title nearly 18% more often than the next-closest team (Boston) in its simulations.

Oklahoma City is 32-9 against Western Conference opponents this season and 10-5 versus teams from the East. Mark Daigneault's squad likely will be hoping to avoid the San Antonio Spurs -- and to a lesser extent, Minnesota -- in the postseason, however.

The Thunder have lost two of three meetings with the Timberwolves thus far this season and dropped four of five with the Spurs. Three of those setbacks against San Antonio were by double digits, and the first three came within a span of 13 days in December.

But the postseason is a different animal. Oklahoma City lost only four games over the first three rounds of last year's playoffs and defeated Minnesota 4-1 in the conference finals. It was taken to the limit by the Indiana Pacers in the finals, but the club likely learned some valuable lessons on the road to the title and will be well-prepared for another run.

3. Boston Celtics to win Eastern Conference (+380, DraftKings)

• Conference title probability model projection: 34.14%

When Jayson Tatum went down with a torn Achilles last postseason, many believed the Celtics would not be a factor in 2025-26. However, nothing could be farther from the truth.

Boston entered the All-Star break second in the Eastern Conference standings with a 35-19 record and six wins in its last seven games. Jaylen Brown has been outstanding during Tatum's absence as he is tied for third in the NBA in scoring with a career-high average of 29.3 points while adding 6.9 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game, both of which also would be personal bests.

Things could be getting even better for the Celtics in the not-so-distant future. Tatum practiced with their G League team prior to the All-Star break and also took part in scrimmages with his teammates, meaning it's very possible the 27-year-old forward returns to the lineup before the end of the regular season and potentially makes Boston a force come playoff time.

The Celtics are the third or fourth choice to come out of the Eastern Conference in the postseason at the major sportsbooks, where they are priced between +365 and +380. But the ITL team's model likes them to represent the conference in the NBA Finals as its simulations have them accomplishing the feat more than 34% of the time. The Detroit Pistons, who are 5.5 games ahead of Boston in the standings, are second at nearly 33%.