About the last thing I want to do as a devout Bears fan is talk about Aaron Rodgers any more than I have to in this space, but the various sportsbooks have posted some season props for the four-time MVP with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 42-year-old Rodgers has claimed that 2026 absolutely will be his last season in the NFL, although we have heard this before.
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Rodgers signed a one-year contract worth up to $25 million with Pittsburgh to reunite with new Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy, who spent 13 seasons as Green Bay's head coach before the team fired him in 2018.
They will be the first head coach/quarterback duo to win a Super Bowl together (2010 Packers) and then start together on another team. Bill Parcells and Drew Bledsoe lost in the Super Bowl with the Patriots in the 1996 season and reunited with the Cowboys in 2005-06. Don Shula and Earl Morrall lost in Super Bowl III with the Colts and were reunited with the Dolphins from 1972-76.
Rodgers will turn 43 on Dec. 2, and if he's still going by then would become the sixth quarterback to start at age 43 or older in NFL history. If you are wondering, the Steelers don't face the Packers in 2026, barring an unlikely Super Bowl meeting, as the teams played in the 2025 regular season. The Pack won by 10 in Pittsburgh. Only four quarterbacks have beaten all current 32 NFL franchises. Rodgers has beaten all but Green Bay, and Steelers over Packers in Super Bowl 61 is priced +45000.
That Rodgers decided to return didn't affect any Steelers team futures, as it was widely assumed. They have an Over/Under wins total of 8.5 and are +145 to make the playoffs for the second year in a row and -175 to miss.
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The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Pittsburgh for 8.7 wins and a 42.4% shot at the playoffs, which equates to +135. Rodgers' final Week 1 is home to Atlanta on Sept. 13, with Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite. He is 4-4 career vs. the Falcons, but he hasn't seen them since 2020. The model has Rodgers throwing for 174 yards with 1.56 TDs and 0.52 INTs in his final Week 1. It's the first time since 2023 that Pittsburgh opens at home.
Last season, Rodgers had a 10-6 regular-season record as a starter (missed one game injured) and completed 65.7% of his throws for 3,322 yards with 24 touchdowns, seven picks and a 94.8 passer rating in leading the team to the postseason (although that playoff game ended badly). Rodgers had the quickest time to throw among all quarterbacks in the league at 2.71 seconds and topped the NFL in percentage of throws that did not travel beyond the line of scrimmage ... at a whopping 32.5%. His receivers averaged 6.5 yards after catch per completion, the highest mark of the QB's career.
Rodgers enters 2026 with the highest passer rating ever at 102.2, lowest interception rate at 1.41% and fourth-most TD passes with 527. Although projected Arizona starter Jacoby Brissett could pass Rodgers on that INT rate as Brissett is at 1.42%. Rodgers should pass third-place Peyton Manning (539) for TD passes but not likely to catch Drew Brees (571) in second.
DraftKings gives Rodgers O/U season props of 3,199.5 yards passing and 20.5 touchdown passes. That he's the first player this season to throw for 400 yards in a game is +4000 and +1800 to be the first with five TD passes this year.
Only Tom Brady, Brees, Manning and Brett Favre have reached 70,000 career regular-season passing yards, and Rodgers is sitting at 66,274. He is +200 on a Yes-only prop at DK to get the necessary 3,726 to get there – he topped that number as recently as 2024 with the Jets. In the 2025 offense under Mike Tomlin and OC Arthur Smith, no way Rodgers throws for that many yards, and he probably won't anyways even with the trade addition of wideout Michael Pittman Jr. from Indy.
But the offense under McCarthy, who calls the plays and is +1600 to win NFL Coach of the Year, should be more QB-friendly and pass-heavy than under the previous regime. Rodgers had a 98-55-1 record with Green Bay under McCarthy from 2008-18 and threw 333 TD passes, with his teams averaging 27.2 PPG.
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