Blue Jays-Red Sox odds, picks, predictions for April 10 from proven model

The Toronto Blue Jays are looking to pull off a four-game road sweep as they square off against the Boston Red Sox in the series finale Thursday at 4:10 p.m. ET. After winning the past three contests in Boston, the Blue Jays are atop the American League East standings at 8-5. The Red Sox have gotten off to a 6-7 start, trailing the Blue Jays and the 7-5 New York Yankees in the division. 

The pitching matchup features two starters who are moving in opposite directions early on in this campaign. The Blue Jays are sending out Chris Bassitt, who has a sparkling 0.71 ERA after tossing 12 and 2/3 innings in his first two starts. Walker Buehler takes the bump for the home team, and he's surrendered nine earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings over two starts. Boston probably didn't have this start in mind when it signed the former Los Angeles Dodgers ace to a one-year, $21.05 million contract this past offseason. 

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Bassitt's strikeouts prop for today's outing is set at 5.5, with the Over favored at -136. Meanwhile, Buehler's not only has a low 3.5 strikeouts prop, but his Under is heavily juiced at -160 while the Over is at +126.

Red Sox star Rafael Devers has the shortest odds to go yard in Thursday's showdown at +350. Devers didn't get a single hit in 19 March at-bats and struck out 15 times in those plate appearances. He's heated up considerably since the calendar flipped to April, batting .433 (13 hits in 30 April at-bats) to bring his season batting average up to .265. He's still only hit one home run this campaign.

That's still one more home run than Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto must not be too worried since it gave the first baseman a $500 million extension earlier this week, despite Guerrero Jr. not sending a single baseball to the seats in his first 13 games. He's still batting .288 this season and is +680 to hit his first homer of the season today.

The Red Sox are -116 favorites (bet $116 to win $100) on the money line, according to SportsLine consensus, while the Blue Jays are -104 (bet $104 to win $100) underdogs. The total for this contest is currently set at 9 runs. 

Let's check out the SportsLine model's projections for Blue Jays-Red Sox.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS at BOSTON RED SOX | 4/10 | 4:10 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Red Sox -116
Boston wins in 59% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
Boston covers in 74% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 9 runs
The Over hits in 47% of simulations

Projected score: Red Sox 5.0, Blue Jays 4.5