Matchweek 4 of the Champions League kicks off on Tuesday, Nov. 3 with some of Europe's biggest teams in action. Fans can look forward to matches like Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich meeting in a battle of heavyweights, reigning title holders Paris Saint-Germain facing Villarreal, upstarts Aston Villa visiting the mighty Barcelona and Manchester United seeking a much-needed positive result against Roma. All of the matches will be available to stream on Paramount+. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive $55 in trading bonus credits here:
We've fired up the SportsLine Projection Model to break down Tuesday's Champions League matches. The model simulates every match 10,000 times and weights its simulations against publicly available odds. Bet on the Champions League at DraftKings and get $200 in bonuses + 3 months of NBA League Pass:
Champions League picks for Tuesday
- Bayern Munich money line vs. Atletico Madrid
- Aston Villa money line vs. Barcelona
- Roma money line vs. Manchester United
Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich money line
The German champions have produced two straight draws in Champions League action. The 2-2 result with Arsenal was a respectable battle, but the 3-3 one with Viking is one they'd like to forget. Needless to say, Bayern Munich need an infusion of three points. The Bavarians will be hunting for a win at the Metropolitano and while Diego Simeone's defense is a tough nut to crack, Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane and Michael Olise should be up to the task. This should be one of the more entertaining matches of the day and a good watch for neutrals.
Bayern Munich wins in 56% of the SportsLine model's simulations.
Barcelona vs. Aston Villa: Aston Villa money line
Let's get this out of the way -- Aston Villa are not likely to win this match. Barcelona are a fine-tuned attacking superpower. Villa, for all of their impressive wins this season (including a victory over Manchester City), just produced an uninspiring 1-1 draw with Fulham over the weekend. But if you were to design an attack to exploit Barca's defensive weaknesses, it would look a lot like Villa's.
Hansi Flick has Barca playing a high defensive line that leaves it vulnerable to quick-hitting balls in behind and athletic runners. Aston Villa's new-look attack is led by a pair of extremely technical athletes in Nicolas Jackson and Johan Manzambi, and both goalkeeper Zion Suzuki and center back Pau Torres play excellent long balls to the forward line. Villa supporters may not feel great about the idea of Torres and Ian Maatsen defending the likes of Lamine Yamal, but they have gotten big results in the Champions League under Unai Emery (remember, they won a knockout leg against PSG in 2024). It's not hard to see how they could pull off their biggest upset yet.
Aston Villa wins in 39% of the model's simulations, providing strong value at this price.
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Manchester United vs. Roma: Roma money line
To say the wheels have fallen off for Manchester United would be generous. Years of mismanagement have caught up with the Red Devils, who now find themselves in a relegation spot in the Premier League table. Gameweek 3's pulverizing at Como seemed to be the end for manager Michael Carrick, but he remains in charge (as of this writing) despite that result and awful losses to Bournemouth and Chelsea. Morale is all but nonexistent.
There is little reason to expect a spirited defense of Old Trafford with Roma coming to town. The Italian club got its first Champions League win of the campaign in Matchweek 3 with a victory over Slovan Bratislava and followed that up with a draw and two wins in Serie A. Striker Donyell Malen is tied for second in Serie A in goals scored and leads an impressive attack that also features Argentines Paulo Dybala and Matias Soule. With Man U's defense in awful form, look for the Romans to give the fans at Old Trafford more to boo.
Roma wins in 47% of the SportsLine model's simulations, a good rate considering this price and that some of those outcomes are draws.
