College basketball picks: Nebraska-Michigan, UK-Vandy, Arkansas-Oklahoma odds, best bets for Tuesday, Jan. 27
Here's how the SportsLine Projection Model expects Tuesday's top games, including the Nebraska vs. Michigan top-five showdown, to play out
The No. 5 Nebraska Cornhuskers and their perfect record face a major stress test Tuesday when they head to Ann Arbor to face the third-ranked Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten game. The top-five meeting is one of several intriguing matchups for college basketball fans and bettors to enjoy Tuesday night. Nebraska (20-0, 9-0 in Big Ten) is one of three remaining unbeaten teams, along with Arizona and Miami (Ohio), while the Wolverines (18-1, 9-1) are widely considered one of the nation's most dangerous teams. There are also two important Southeastern Conference contests, with No. 18 Vanderbilt (17-3, 4-3 in SEC) hosting Kentucky (14-6, 5-2) and No. 15 Arkansas (15-5, 5-2) visiting Oklahoma (11-9, 1-6).
We'll provide you with recommendations for these three matchups for Tuesday, based on information from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. You can get odds, picks and game forecasts for any other games by visiting SportsLine.
No. 5 Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan (7 p.m. ET)
Many folks have been waiting for the Huskers to slip up for a while now, but they keep coming through. They have beaten ranked Illinois and Michigan State teams so far, but they haven't faced a team like the Wolverines. Nebraska's backbone is strong defense, as it allows just 65 points per game (16th-fewest in D-I) and 39% shooting (15th-lowest). But Michigan scores 91.7 points per game, eighth-most in Division I, and hits 51.7% of its shots (fifth). The Wolverines also are second-best in the nation in field goal percentage defense (36.5%).
Forward Pryce Sandfort leads the Cornhuskers in scoring at 17.3 points per game and has scored at least 22 in four straight. He shoots 41.7% from 3-point range and makes 3.4 shots from long range per game. tied for most in the Big Ten. The Michigan front court of 7-foot-3 Aday Mara (2.7 blocks per game), Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. combines for 39 points and 21 rebounds per game, and Eric Cadeau shoots 41.6% from 3-point range.
The SportsLine Projection Model lists the Wolverines as 10.5-point favorites and the Over/Under for total points is 156.5. The model has Nebraska covering in 63% of simulations, and the Over is hitting 59.4% of the time. There is some value on the Huskers to win, as they are doing so in 32% of simulations, which would mean a sizable payout at +422 on the money line.
No. 20 Arkansas at Oklahoma (7 p.m. ET)
Both of these teams can score and neither is great on the defensive end, so this should be a high-scoring game. The Razorbacks (15-5) are tied for 13th in the nation in scoring at 89.6 points per game, and the Sooners (11-9) are 54th at 83.7. On the defensive end, Arkansas yields 77.2 points (277th) and OU gives up 75.9 (242nd). The Razorbacks have won three of their past four games, including a 93-68 throttling of Vanderbilt, which was ranked No. 15 in that game a week ago. Their only loss was to then-No. 21 Georgia and they beat LSU 85-81 on Saturday behind 31 points from Darius Acuff Jr. He is the team's leading scorer (20.2 per game), is second in the SEC in assists (6.2 per game) and shoots 42% from 3-point range.
The Sooners have lost six in a row but pushed Missouri to overtime on the road Saturday before falling 88-87, and they lost by two to a ranked Alabama team before that. Xzayvier Brown averages a team-high 16.5 points and 1.3 steals, and Nijel Pack scores 15.7 and shoots 42.2% from 3-point range (fourth in SEC).
The Razorbacks are 2.5-point favorites on the road in the SportsLine consensus odds, but the Sooners are covering in 64% of the SportsLine Projection Model's simulations, good for a "B" grade. The model gives an "A" grade to OU on the money line, as the Sooners are winning outright 57% of the time as a +130 home underdog. With these high-scoring teams, the Over/Under is set at 166.5 but the model has it coming slightly below that, with Under hitting in 55.3% of simulations.
No. 18 Vanderbilt at Kentucky (9 p.m. ET)
The Commodores' amazing run to start the season seems like a long time ago. They started out 16-0 but have lost three of their past four games. Vandy stopped a three-game slide with an 88-56 victory at Mississippi State on Saturday, and two of the three losses were to ranked teams Florida and Arkansas. Now they host the always dangerous Wildcats (14-6), who have won five in a row since opening SEC play with losses to Alabama and Missouri. They knocked off Ole Miss 72-63 on Saturday, with leading scorer Otega Oweh scoring 23 points. The senior guard averages 16.1 points and is tied for fourth in the SEC in steals (1.9 per game).
Two of the three players ahead of him are Vandy's Duke Miles (2.8) and Tyler Tanner (2.4). Still, the Commodores are built on offense as they are 10th in the nation in scoring at 90.1 points per game while UK scores 82.5 (69th) but is better on the defensive end.
The Commodores are 6.5-point favorites and are covering the spread in 60% of SportsLine model simulations. The total is set at 159.5, and the Over is hitting 64.7% of the time.
