No college football team is a bigger favorite to win its conference than the Miami Hurricanes. One season after losing to Indiana in the CFP national championship game, the Hurricanes are -136 favorites to win the ACC. No other team in the country is shorter than -105 to win its conference. According to DraftKings, SMU (+700), Louisville (+800) and Clemson (+1400) are Miami's top challengers to lift the ACC trophy.
But should the Hurricanes be such big favorites to win the conference? Remember, this is a program that has never won the ACC title since joining the conference in 2004 and didn't even qualify for the ACC championship game last year. In addition, Miami has to replace pass rush demons Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, four offensive line stalwarts and quarterback Carson Beck.
With multiple months until this season's conference title game, there's no reason to ride with the Hurricanes at a short price. There's another team that provides better value.
| Team | Odds |
| Miami | -136 |
| SMU | +700 |
| Louisville | +800 |
| Clemson | +1400 |
| Virginia | +1600 |
| Pitt | +1700 |
| NC State | +2200 |
| Virginia Tech | +2800 |
| Georgia Tech | +3500 |
| Florida State | +3500 |
| Cal | +3500 |
| Duke | +6000 |
| Wake Forest | +7400 |
| North Carolina | +15000 |
| Syracuse | +18000 |
| Stanford | +40000 |
| Boston College | +50000 |
The case for SMU
On the final day of the ACC Kickoff in Charlotte last week, SMU coach Rhett Lashlee started unbuttoning his white dress shirt in front of a gaggle of reporters. He was not uncomfortably hot or trying to do his best Clark Kent-to-Superman impression. Instead Lashlee was trying to unveil what was underneath: a white t-shirt that read JENNINGS FOR HEISMAN.
Indeed, the case for the Mustangs to win the ACC begins with quarterback Kevin Jennings. The fifth-year senior from Dallas is one of the winningest and most prolific signal callers in the country returning this season, which makes him a contender for the stiff-arm statuette. He is 18-6 over the last two seasons, and those 18 wins rank third in the nation. Over that time, he has passed for 6,886 yards (third in the FBS) and 49 touchdowns (tied for eighth).
Behind Jennings, the Mustangs reached the College Football Playoff two years ago and just missed out on the ACC Championship Game last season after losing a convoluted tiebreaker.
Jennings could be the difference for a team that was close last year. Though the Mustangs went 9-4, they led in the fourth quarter in all four losses, and three of their four defeats came on the final play of the game. Most notably, they beat eventual CFP runner-up Miami 26-20 in Dallas.
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But more than being an experienced playmaker at the game's most important position, Jennings also gives SMU continuity. That means something in a conference in which 11 of the 17 teams will have a new face behind center. That includes the other four teams listed as contenders to win the conference: Miami, Louisville, Clemson and Virginia.
Jennings won't need to be a one-man show for the Mustangs. He will have four starters back from the offensive line, led by All-ACC tackle PJ Williams. That should help improve a running game that took a step back in 2025 (133.8 yards per game, 95th in the country).
SMU is not without some warts. The defense, which ranked 88th in the FBS last season in yards per game (395.1), needs to return to its 2024 level when it was 26th in the country (326.0), and it will have to do so with just four returning starters. Also, Jennings, who has thrown 14 interceptions over the last two seasons, has to stay away from making the big mistakes.
But Lashlee and the program's strong NIL pull have been successful at bringing talent to Dallas (through both the high school and transfer portal avenues), which should help address at least some of the holes on both sides of the ball.
The ACC schedule also works in the Mustangs' favor. SMU avoids Miami, NC State and Clemson. The slate is front-loaded with a Monday night season opener at Florida State and a Week 3 matchup at Louisville. Even a split of those games could be enough to get the Mustangs to Charlotte in early December.
The Hurricanes are heavy favorites to not only get to Charlotte but lift the ACC trophy, which is understandable given last season. But SMU is more than four times the price of Miami in futures markets, which makes the Mustangs the value play in the conference.
"We've been good," Lashlee said at the ACC Kickoff. "But we're in pursuit of great."
