Saturday's college football schedule features three college football underdogs with a better chance of winning outright in SportsLine's simulations than the consensus odds suggest. Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State kicks off at 1 p.m. ET, followed by Washington vs. Penn State at 3:30 p.m. No. 24 Florida vs. Oklahoma closes the group at 7:45 p.m. ET. You can even combo picks on Kalshi to get an increased payout. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, complete $25 in trades, and receive a $55 bonus:

We've fired up the SportsLine Projection Model to break down Saturday's college football games. The model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, entered Week 10 of the 2026 season with an 80-77 record on top-rated college football picks. For this week's underdog selections, the model identifies three teams with stronger chances of winning outright than the consensus college football odds suggest. New users can claim the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS for up to $1,500 in bonus bets:

Best college football underdogs for Saturday

  • Kansas State-Oklahoma State: Kansas State to win outright
  • Washington-Penn State: Penn State to win outright
  • Florida-Oklahoma: Oklahoma to win outright

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Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State: Kansas State +185

Oklahoma State averages 41.1 points and 338.8 passing yards per game, with Drew Mestemaker accounting for 2,649 yards and 25 touchdowns through the air. But Kansas State owns the nation's No. 7 pass defense at 151.9 yards allowed per game, and its offense converts 53% of third downs, two reasons the Wildcats could control stretches of this game even after their recent quarterback changes.

Blake Barnett, named the starter after replacing Dillon Duff at Colorado, threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 overtime loss, including the late score that forced the extra period. With Avery Johnson sidelined, Barnett gets another chance against a Cowboys defense allowing 236.8 passing yards per contest and 27.1 points per game, ranking 103rd nationally in total yards allowed. SportsLine's model has Kansas State winning 44% of simulations, above the consensus implied probability of 35.8%. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, complete $25 in trades, and receive a $55 bonus:

Washington vs. Penn State: Penn State +110

Penn State ended a four-game skid against Purdue, collecting 457 yards in a 31-17 victory behind Cam Wallace's 135 rushing yards and a touchdown pass from Rocco Becht. The Nittany Lions rushed for 269 yards as a team, an interesting contrast with Washington's 95 rushing yards per game and 131.3 allowed, particularly if Penn State can sustain longer drives.

The Huskies beat Nebraska 17-10 last weekend, but didn't score an offensive touchdown until Demond Williams Jr. found Chris Lawson with 1:30 left; an interception return followed to deliver the final margin. Penn State allows 141.4 passing yards per game, third-best in the country, and holds opponents to 27% on third down, matching up well against a Washington offense that converts only 33.3%. SportsLine gives Penn State a 53% chance to win outright, compared with a consensus implied probability of 47.2%. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, complete $25 in trades, and receive a $55 bonus:

Florida vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma +195

Oklahoma's offense has scored just 22 points per game, but the defense presents a tougher test than the Sooners' 4-4 record suggests, holding opponents to 304.6 yards and 20.8 points per contest. John Mateer has thrown for 1,835 yards with 13 touchdowns, while Isaiah Sategna III has 591 receiving yards, giving the Sooners a passing option as their rushing offense averages only 106.8 yards per game.

Florida scores 35.6 points per game behind Jadan Baugh, who has 801 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, but its defense is giving up 28.1 points and 235.8 passing yards. Oklahoma's defense gets opponents off the field on third down at a 28.2% conversion rate; if Mateer avoids turnovers, the Sooners have room to take control of a game that could be decided late. SportsLine has Oklahoma winning 40% of its simulations, ahead of the consensus implied probability of 34.2%.