It used to be that the good folks in Bloomington, Ind., only cared about Midnight Madness and the impending start of men's basketball season. But now Indiana University is a football school with fall camp just around the corner for Coach Curt Cignetti and the defending national champions. Let's take a look at IU, which opens the season Sept. 5 as a 39.5-point home favorite against North Texas.
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Indiana's title last season was the third in a row for the Big Ten in football but easily the most unlikely in conference history, considering IU was a +10000 longshot in the 2025 preseason to win it all. Before that, nine of the 10 previous national champions were priced +800 or shorter when the season kicked off. Indiana's preseason AP poll rank of No. 20 was the second-worst by an eventual national champion since Auburn was No. 22 in 2010.
IU (+800) is one of five schools currently priced +800 or better at DraftKings for this year's title along with Ohio State (+600), Notre Dame (+650), Texas (+670) and Oregon (+800).
The last Big Ten school to win back-to-back titles in football was Michigan State in 1965-66. Indiana's regular-season win total this season is set at 10.5, with the Under a slight favorite. You can also get IU -0.5 wins (+100) vs. the team it beat in last season's title game in Miami at +0.5 (-130). To go unbeaten again, IU is +400 with No at -500, and I give them almost no chance at that.
The non-conference games are all vs. non-major conference schools (UNT, Howard and Western Kentucky) in Bloomington, so those all should be easy wins. And the good news is that Indiana doesn't play Oregon or Penn State in Big Ten action but do host Ohio State and visit Michigan. Trips to Nebraska and Washington will not be easy. For just Big Ten wins, Indiana is set at O/U 7.5.
Know that FBS teams coached by Cignetti have gone Over their regular-season win total in all four seasons: IU in 2025 (set at 8.5, won 12) and 2024 (5.5, won 11), and James Madison in 2023 (8.5, won 11) and 2022 (6.5 won 8).
Cignetti's 27 total wins at Indiana are the most by any head coach in his first two seasons with any school in FBS history. And they largely have been dominant wins as Indiana became only the second team in past 30 years to lead the FBS in points-per-game differential in back-to-back seasons (2021-22 Georgia was the other). Cignetti welcomes back 10 starters from last year's club but of course had to fill a gaping hole at quarterback with reigning Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.
But per usual, Cignetti did extremely well in the transfer portal with his class led by former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover ranked No. 9 overall this year by sister-site 247 Sports. Hoover, who originally committed to Indiana during former coach Tom Allen's tenure before signing with the Horned Frogs, enters the season as college football's leading returning passer with 9,629 yards and is second in touchdown passes with 71. Hoover is +1500 to win the Heisman. Alabama in 2020-21 was the last school with back-to-back winners.
Cignetti also landed one of the top wideouts in the portal in Michigan State's Nick Marsh, who had 59 catches, 662 yards and six TDs last year for a bad team. Overall, there are 44 newcomers, including 18 transfers â nine on defense, six on offense and three specialists.
I believe Indiana loses to Ohio State and Michigan at a minimum, so that's down to 10 wins. IU could easily fall at either Nebraska or Washington. Thus, I lean Under 10.5 but could see a return to the playoff at 9-3 with the club priced -350 for the playoff. To win exactly nine regular-season games, it is +480. If Cignetti works another miracle, the NFL is going to come calling for 2027.
