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There are 12 games on the MLB schedule for Monday, May 4, headlined by the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs meeting in the opener of a four-game series between the NL Central rivals. The Reds got off to a hot start but have struggled of late with three losses in a row, while the Cubs are going for their sixth straight win. We'll highlight the best MLB trades you can make on Kalshi using recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

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Best MLB trades for Monday, May 4

  • Cubs to win vs. Reds
  • Astros to win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs vs. Dodgers
  • Giants to win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs vs. Padres

Cubs to win vs. Reds

Chicago will send Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.06 ERA) to the bump on Monday as it opens a four-game set with the Reds at Wrigley Field. Cabrera has been a bit shaky over his last four starts, serving up at least three runs in each outing. Chase Petty will make his 2026 debut for Cincinnati after going 0-3 with a massive 19.5 ERA in 2025. The SportsLine model has the Cubs winning this game in 67% of simulations and on Kalshi, you can trade for Chicago at 65 cents per share.

Astros to win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs vs. Dodgers

These two franchises met in the 2017 World Series, a seven-game set the Astros eventually won. Houston went on to win another title in 2022, but the Dodgers have become the recent kings of the sport with back-to-back championships in 2024 and 2025. Los Angeles will send reigning World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2-2, 2.87 ERA) to the mound, while Houston counters with Steven Okert (0-0, 4.20 ERA). The Astros have won their last two games and they win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs, on Monday in 59% of simulations. You can make this trade at 47 cents per share on Kalshi.

Giants to win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs vs. Padres

San Francisco got off to a bad start in 2026 and has lost six in a row entering Monday's contest against the Padres. San Diego has struggled a bit of late with just four wins in its last 10 games, though it sits just a half-game back of L.A. in the NL West. The Giants will give the ball to Trevor McDonald, who is making his 2026 debut, while Randy Vasquez (3-0, 2.94 ERA) gets the nod for San Diego. The Giants win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs on Monday in 64% of SportsLine simulations and on Kalshi, you can make that trade at 57 cents per share.