The New York Yankees took the first step toward closing the gap between themselves and the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night, opening the four-game series with a 5-1 win. New York will send Will Warren (7-3, 3.73 ERA) to the mound for Tuesday's clash, while Tampa Bay counters with Ian Seymour (5-1, 4.02 ERA). Seymour has allowed just one run over his last 12 2/3 innings, picking up two wins in the process. Warren has surrendered 18 runs across his last five starts and has not won a start since May 31. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
The SportsLine Projection Model has the Rays winning on Tuesday in 56% of simulations but has stronger leans for the Yankees on the run line and Over 8 runs. The model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and entered Week 16 of the MLB season on a sizzling 29-16 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anyone following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has looked over the markets for this game and provided his best bets for the contest.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who is up 133.4 units dating back to the 2022 MLB season on straight bets, prop betting and parlay betting. Here's a look at his best bets for Yankees vs. Rays on Tuesday.
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Yankees vs. Rays best bets
- Yankees team total Over 3.5 runs (-133, Caesars)
- Jose Caballero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+145, DraftKings)
- Ben Rice Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+105, BetMGM)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-131, DraftKings)
The Yankees finally won last night behind a Herculean effort from Jose Caballero against the team that traded him away. He was certainly playing with added motivation and made his presence felt by basically single-handedly winning the game for the Bronx Bombers. His two home runs and four RBI were the reason the Yankees pulled out the victory, but Ben Rice was also part of the scoring efforts with a home run of his own. Aside from the long balls, the Yankees offense once again looked incredibly stagnant, and Griffin Jax may have allowed the big three-run blow after a couple of walks, but he also struck out 10 batters on his way to an outstanding start.
New York will now face another "no name" Rays starter, Ian Seymour, who's been used as an opener and starter, with success in both roles. He beat up on the Royals the last two times out, once in relief, and the other as a true starter, completing at least six innings in each outing, and allowing just one run and three hits across those 12+ innings. Before that, in 14 1/3 innings in June, he allowed nine runs on 12 hits, with four home runs, so the results had been mixed prior to the most recent performances. I think the southpaw likely has a solid start in this one, but the Rays bullpen could be tasked with covering 4+ innings with Seymour generally not throwing a ton of pitches.
That's where the Yankees will need to pounce in order to score, and they have a little momentum now, so I would not be surprised if they scored late to win the game. Seymour reminds me of the random lefties the Red Sox have rolled out against the Yankees this year, all of whom had success while mixing speeds and using breaking pitches to keep them off balance. I'm not trusting they crush this lefty, especially in their current form, but I'm also not running to back Seymour's player props either.
Yankees team total Over 3.5 runs (-133)
The only reason the Yankees hit this last night was Caballero being a stud and hating his former team for trading him. He was absolutely locked in from the jump and was literally the only guy that could do anything against Jax. When all looked lost for the Over 3.5 team total late in the game, the utility man stood tall in the batter's box and laced his second home run of the night, cashing the Over and propelling New York to a much-needed victory. The Yankees have registered just a .660 OPS and 85 wRC+ against southpaws since June 1, both well below league average, but Seymour showed some cracks early in June and was great the last two times but both appearances came against the Royals.
While Kansas City has been better than the Yankees against lefties over the same time period, it remains to be seen how much stock we can put into the success Seymour is having of late until he pulls it off against other opponents. The story is the same on the Yankees as it was last night; the offense projects as too potent to remain Under a 3.5 full game team total when they have nine guaranteed at-bats. At some point, the long balls generally come into play for them, and Over 3.5 runs is achievable with just one swing of the bat. They walk and get men on base, allowing them to score runs in bunches if they're also hitting the ball over the fence.
Jose Caballero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+145)
Caballero should play the entire game and the price here for two hits, runs or RBI is showing some solid value for a full-time starter on the away team. Regardless of him hitting lower in the order, he gets the benefit of not being part of a platoon split situation like Amed Rosario, who is likely to be pinch hit for with lefty Ryan McMahon on the bench.
Ben Rice Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+105)
Rice smacked yet another home run late in Monday's game, and while he's on the worse side of his split here in the left-on-left matchup, he's still hitting over .240 against southpaws. Seymour has actually been slightly worse against lefty batters with six home runs allowed in 23 innings.
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-131)
Caminero has been stifled for the last couple of games but he was red hot before that. Tonight, he faces off with Will Warren, who's allowing a .254 average and 1.34 WHIP against righties and has been shaky of late.
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