NBA futures: Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still the front-runner for 2025-26 MVP?

For quite a while, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was considered the clear-cut favorite to win the NBA Most Valuable Player award for a second consecutive time. However, Victor Wembanyama has been making a charge for the honor of late as his San Antonio Spurs attempt to overtake Gilgeous-Alexander's Oklahoma City Thunder for the top spot in the Western Conference standings.

Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to become the 14th different player in league history to win back-to-back MVP awards after having beaten out three-time winner Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets for the trophy last season. 

The star guard, who has helped lead the Oklahoma City to a Western Conference-best 60-16 record, is second in the league with a scoring average of 31.6 points and has been producing at a high rate down the stretch, as he has surpassed that number four times in his last eight outings -- recording at least 40 points three times in that span.

Wembanyama has been doing his best to prevent Gilgeous-Alexander from running away with the MVP award. The towering 22-year-old center has averaged 27.9 points and 12.3 rebounds over his last 15 games, all of which were won by the Spurs.

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The major sportsbooks still believe Gilgeous-Alexander will bring home the hardware, as he is priced between -350 and -425, while Wembanyama is the second favorite with odds ranging from +250 to +340. Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic is a distant third, as he is listed between +1400 and +3000.

The NBA has had back-to-back MVP winners 15 times since the award was first given out after the 1955-56 season, with three players -- Bill Russell of the Boston Celtics (1961-63), Wilt Chamberlain of the Philadelphia 76ers (1966-68) and Boston's Larry Bird (1984-86) capturing the trophy three consecutive times. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James have repeated twice during their careers, with the latter doing so with two different teams (2009-10, Cleveland Cavaliers; 2012-13, Miami Heat).

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander (-350, BetMGM)

There was a period of time when Gilgeous-Alexander was in danger of being ineligible for the league's annual awards, as the NBA's new rule states any player who misses more than 17 games does not qualify. The 27-year-old had sat out 11 contests by late February but has only skipped one since then and entered Thursday needing to make just two appearances over Oklahoma City's final six games in order to be considered for the MVP.

It's highly unlikely he'll fail to get there, and the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't missed a beat since returning from the abdominal injury that sidelined him for most of February has all but wrapped up the award for him. He has scored 20 or more points in all 16 of his outings following the lengthy absence and poured in 47 in last Monday's overtime triumph over the Detroit Pistons, marking the third time this season he has finished with at least that amount. 

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Support for Wembanyama has increased this week as the 2023 first overall draft pick scored a season-high 41 points against the Chicago Bulls on Monday and repeated the feat two nights later versus the Golden State Warriors. He grabbed 16 and 18 rebounds in those contests to give him five consecutive double-doubles and 40 overall this season, leaving him three shy of matching the career high he set as a rookie in 2023-24.

However, San Antonio kept Wembanyama out of the lineup for Thursday's meeting with the Los Angeles Clippers, citing right ankle management. So that gives him only five more opportunities this season to strengthen his presumably slim chances of beating out Gilgeous-Alexander for the MVP award, which likely will end up in the Thunder superstar's possession once again.