NBA predictions, best bets: Pistons vs. Suns total among top picks for Thursday, Jan. 29
Here's a look at our top bets from the SportsLine Projection Model for Thursday night's NBA slate
Thursday features an eight-game NBA slate that offers plenty of intrigue, especially as we get closer and closer to both the All-Star Break and trade deadline. The Miami Heat visit the Chicago Bulls in a matchup of Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls both aiming to move up the standings, while the East-leading Detroit Pistons face a Phoenix Suns team that could get to 10 games over .500 with an upset win Thursday night.
The Heat are slim 1.5-point road favorites in Chicago, while Detroit is a 4.5-point road favorite against Phoenix. With so many games for sports bettors to choose from Thursday night, make sure to check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. The model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times before sharing its picks and leans for each and every game. The model entered Week 15 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a 37-16 run on its top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season.
Here's a look at the model's NBA best bets for Thursday's games.
Best NBA picks for Thursday, Jan. 29
Kings +11.5 vs. 76ers
The Kings are in Philly Thursday night to take on the 76ers, and they're the biggest underdog of the entire eight-game slate at +11.5. At 12-36, Sacramento is tied for the second-fewest wins in all of the NBA. As for the 76ers, they're 25-21 and are sixth in the Eastern Conference. The SportsLine model thinks this spread is too large, however, as the Kings cover +11.5 in a whopping 67% of model simulations.
Take the Kings to cover the spread against the 76ers at Caesars Sportsbook:
Heat vs. Bulls Under 237.5
These teams are separated by just 1.5 games entering Thursday as the Heat are 25-23 and eighth in the Eastern Conference while the Bulls are 10th at 23-24. Miami is 5-5 over its last 10 games and is coming off a loss while Chicago has won six of 10 but has dropped two straight entering Thursday. This 237.5 total is far and away the highest of the Thursday schedule, and the SportsLine model likes the Under here with that side hitting 61.2% of the time. Chicago is 26-21 to the Under while Miami has a slight lean to the Over this year at 25-23.
Take Heat vs. Bulls Under 237.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Pistons vs. Suns Over 214.5
The Pistons have been stellar this year, continuing their rapid ascension after having the NBA's worst record just two seasons ago. Detroit is 34-11 -- tops in the East -- and has won two in a row and eight of its last 10. Phoenix is a bit of a surprise this year after the team traded superstar Kevin Durant to rival Houston, but the Suns at 28-19 are firmly in the playoff picture in a very competitive Western Conference. The Suns have won six of their last 10. Both teams have leaned to the Under this season, which is part of why this total is rather low at 214.5. However, the model is backing the Over as that hits in more than 60% of model simulations.
