NFL free agency: Why Tua Tagovailoa would be a good fit with Atlanta and make Falcons futures bets attractive

The insanity that is NFL free agency, which now begins in earnest 48 hours before the actual league year begins, kicked off Monday morning with the Dolphins formally announcing the release of former first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa. Before lunch arrived, there was already serious buzz about the Atlanta Falcons pursuing Tua in free agency.

It's a fit that makes a lot of sense on multiple levels and could make taking some shots at Falcons futures interesting in the betting market. 

When I broke down the entire NFC from a win total perspective, I originally leaned towards the Falcons Under 7.5 wins (-130 on DraftKings) because of the uncertainty at quarterback. This is not overreacting to the possible signing of Tua, but I would definitely be interested in the Over (now +115 at DraftKings) if he ended up signing with the Falcons.

Why? Glad you asked! 

Bet on NFL futures at DraftKings:

Uncertainty at the position

More importantly than anything, Tagovailoa would give the Falcons a little stability at the quarterback position. Atlanta has already said it will release Kirk Cousins on Wednesday when the new league year begins. So the Falcons are going to be down to Michael Penix, Jr. and Easton Stick at the position.

That would be "fine," except Penix suffered a torn ACL -- the third one of his career dating back to college! -- in the middle of November, and there's not any real guarantee he will be 100% ready to start the season. Stick is a non-starter when it comes to starting. 

Enter the interest in Tagovailoa, who despite major health issues in the past, is healthy at the moment, thanks in large part to the Dolphins sitting him for the stretch run last year to avoid having him fail a postseason physical so they could move on from him. 

Penix might not even be the long-term solution in Atlanta -- Kevin Stefanski was entirely non-committal to him at the combine -- even if he's healthy, but if he's not healthy, the Falcons absolutely need a starting-caliber quarterback under center to start the season. 

Favorable environment(s)

Tagovailoa should check a few boxes for the Falcons too, in terms of how he fits. Think about Baker Mayfield working in Stefanski's run-heavy offense in Cleveland and you can see Tua as a left-handed version of that young quarterback. Tagovailoa thrived with Mike McDaniel for stretches and I think he can work here as well, provided the Falcons offensive line stays healthy and they commit -- which they likely will -- to feeding Bijan Robinson. 

Additionally, the Falcons play indoors. I wouldn't want to start Tagovailoa in Cleveland or Buffalo, but in the cozy comforts of Mercedes-Benz Stadium? I'm all for it. Tua won an SEC championship in the building, when he stepped in for Jalen Hurts at halftime against Georgia during his first year with Alabama. 

Despite a bad season last year, the best game of his season came in Atlanta, when he completed more than 75 percent of his passes for 205 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-10 Dolphins win. 

Bet on the NFL and more at FanDuel:

Financial flexibility 

The Falcons are eating a big chunk of change thanks to their decision to move on from Cousins, which puts them behind the financial eight ball in terms of being able to pay for the most important position on the field. Fortunately for them, Tagovailoa won't command a monster contract. The Dolphins are eating nearly three times what the Falcons are by getting rid of their former starter. Tua is likely to take a minimal deal to land in a location where he'll be given a chance to start. Atlanta's interests and Tagovailoa's interests in this regard line up perfectly. 

The lefty factor

This might seem a little niche, but adding a second left-handed quarterback to go with Michael Penix, Jr., is kind of a big deal! There are lots of things that are different for everyone else on the offense when a lefty is under center, whether it's how you plan you protection schemes (the blindside is literally the opposite for a lefty versus a right-handed quarterback), to which side you typically roll out on play action and even down to the type of spin that receivers will see on the ball when it's arriving. 

The Falcons have a new head coach in Stefanski, who will be installing a new offense. He'd be able to have the offense installed with two options operating from the same setup in terms of how they throw and move in the offense. 

Bet on Falcons futures and more football markets at bet365: 

What this news means for bettors

Let's not get too carried away here or anything. Betting on the Falcons to win the Super Bowl is a bridge too far for me at this point. But from a more granular perspective, there are two very actionable items we can look at in preparation for the possibility that Tagovailoa signs with the Falcons.

One, let's the bet the Over on the Falcons win total. There are a couple potentially dicey outdoor games in Cleveland (the Stefanski revenge game!), Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Washington that don't necessarily bode well if Tagovailoa is forced to start, but maybe those come early in the season when we get the schedule. The Saints and Vikings as road games mean additional indoor matchups for Atlanta (they won't get a full 11 because one home game is slated for Spain, but we'll assume the weather is decent there). The division isn't loaded by any stretch, Tagovailoa and Penix are both injury risks but might combine for a nice full-season Frankenstein quarterback, the Falcons are loaded at the skill positions, and we only need an 8-9 finish to cash this Over with some nice plus-money action.

Two, let's sprinkle on the Falcons to win the division. The Buccaneers are rightfully the favorite here, but Mike Evans could be out the door and the roster isn't exactly packed with young players. The Saints are getting a ton of hype, but it might be a year early based entirely on how they closed out an already lost 2025. The Falcons are +400 on DraftKings, and if they land Tagovailoa and the offense looks sharp early this offseason under Stefanski, I could see them closing closer to +250 or so, particularly if Penix comes back and is healthy.