NFL picks: Broncos vs. Patriots AFC Championship Game best bets include Drake Maye prop
Here's a look at our favorite bets for Sunday's AFC Championship Game between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots
A Super Bowl berth is on the line when the New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. The Broncos will be without starting quarterback Bo Nix after he suffered an ankle injury, so the burden will be on backup Jarrett Stidham to guide Denver to the big game. Second-year QB Drake Maye has a chance to bring the Patriots back to Super Bowl for the first time since Tom Brady's departure from Foxborough, but he'll have to navigate a stingy Broncos defense to get there.
Given the strength of both defenses, Maye's recent turnover issues and Stidham's presence at quarterback, this has all the hallmarks of a grind-it-out defensive game. But will Denver coach Sean Payton have something special schemed for his backup? Will Maye remind the world why he was an MVP candidate this year? We'll see when the game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.
Here's a look at our best bets for Broncos vs. Patriots in the AFC Championship Game at DraftKings. If you'd like the latest game forecast for Broncos vs. Patriots and NFL player prop recommendations for the contest, visit SportsLine.
Broncos vs. Patriots best bets
Under 42.5
Everything about this game screams Under. The backup quarterback, the young QB facing a bruising defense in the biggest game of his career, a New England defense that's also quite dangerous -- all signs point to this game being about field position, punters, field goals and the team that makes the fewest mistakes advancing.
Sometimes that means the Under may be a bit too appealing, and that we need to step back for a second and look for ways that one of the offenses could explode. For Denver, it's Payton. He's one of the best offensive minds in the sport and will have something up his sleeve. For New England, it's Maye, who burst onto the scene to challenge Matthew Stafford for MVP honors.
But sometimes that gut feeling is there for a reason. This is an Under game. That side of the total is hitting in 59% of the SportsLine model's simulations.
Drake Maye Over 0.5 interceptions
Maye was picked off in each of his last two games -- both playoff outings. The Houston defense also forced four fumbles from the young signal-caller, and the Broncos are just as tough to play against. At some point, someone is going to get the better of Maye when he tries to force an ill-advised pass to a tightly covered receiver. If Denver is going to win this game, it'll be because the defense sets up enough short fields to Stidham to navigate, and a pick is a good way to do just that.
Nik Bonitto Over 0.75 sacks
In addition to throwing a pick in each of his first two NFL postseason games, Maye was sacked five times in each outing. Denver's defensive front, which led the NFL in sacks this season, will be eager to tee off on Maye and provide those short fields we just mentioned, and Nik Bonitto is the best pass rusher the Broncos have to offer. He's registered at least a full sack in each of his last two games. There's a bit of juice on this prop, but it's worth the squeeze.
