NFL fans can rejoice as the 2026 season gets started one day prior to the traditional Thursday kickoff, with the defending champions Seattle Seahawks facing the New England Patriots on Wednesday, Sept. 9 in a Super Bowl rematch. If you're looking to get into sports betting, specifically betting on the NFL, then you should take a look at what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say about NFL spreads in Week 1.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. It is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks could have seen strong returns.
We'll look at the highest-rated spread picks for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season and provide our top three selections below, with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Use the latest DraftKings promo code and get $200 in bonus bets when you spend $5+:
NFL Week 1 best ATS bets
Steelers -3.5 vs. Falcons
Pittsburgh enters a new era after Mike Tomlin resigned following the 2025 season, but Aaron Rodgers is back at quarterback for what is likely to be his final NFL campaign. He's joined by head coach Mike McCarthy, and that duo is hoping to repeat the Super Bowl run they had with the Green Bay Packers. The Falcons will be rolling with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback for Week 1, but will he be able to shake off some of his struggles from last season in a new system? Atlanta's defense was not too shabby but did allow 23.6 points per game. The Steelers have long been known for their defense, but they were a shell of themselves a year ago, allowing 22.8 points per game. The SportsLine model believes in the McCarthy-Rodgers pairing for Week 1, though, as it has Pittsburgh covering the spread in 58% of simulations.
Eagles -4.5 vs. Commanders
The Eagles have dominated this matchup of late, winning eight of the last 11 matchups including the NFC Championship Game in the 2024 NFL Playoffs. Philadelphia will be without A.J. Brown after his trade to the Patriots, but Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and a stout defense will be back. The Commanders expect Jayden Daniels to be healthy after his 2025 campaign was torpedoed by injuries, but Washington's defense is expected to struggle again. The Eagles cover the spread in 62% of SportsLine simulations, good for an "A" grade.
Chargers -9.5 vs. Cardinals
Los Angeles is a 10-point favorite officially at DraftKings, but you can take a slight odds hit to get an alternate spread at -9.5, which is what the model is using as the latest Cardinals vs. Chargers consensus odds. The Chargers cover the 9.5-point spread in 58% of simulations, as the model believes Justin Herbert can find a new gear with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel while Arizona is likely to struggle in Mike LaFleur's first season at the helm.
