Every regular season, there are two battles in the NFL standings. One is the postseason race, and the other is the competition for the No. 1 overall draft pick. The winners of those fights have plenty of reason to feel good about themselves, but the one who secures the top pick in the draft should only take so much pride in it. For as much value as there is in selecting first, you have to be the worst of 32 teams to do so.
Securing the first pick this year should be viewed as even more of a potential franchise-turning point than in other years. The 2027 quarterback class has been ballyhooed for some time now as a loaded crop with perhaps multiple future elite franchise signal-callers. Having the choice of the bunch is a luxury, even if it means the road to get there came with a whole lot of losses.
Here are the five teams that figure to compete the toughest for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Miami Dolphins
Jeff Hafley is a good coach who, like he did at Boston College, finds himself in a rough situation. This is a developmental year for the NFL's youngest roster, and Hafley should be trusted to deliver some promise on the defensive side of the ball. But with such an empty cupboard across the roster's entirety, it would require a masterclass in coaching to even pull the Dolphins out of the AFC East's basement.
Even if Malik Willis hits as a full-time starting quarterback, there just is not enough talent around him to maximize that breakout. De'Von Achane can shoulder a heavy load, but the wide receiver group is quite clearly the league's worst.
The schedule is a grind, which does no favors for an undermanned team. Catching the Jets twice helps, but battling a pair of Super Bowl contenders in the Bills and Patriots should account for four losses. Drawing the entire NFC North and AFC West hurts, too, considering those divisions are deep with likely playoff squads.
Arizona Cardinals
There is some real skill position talent in the desert this year between Jeremiyah Love, Trey McBride and perhaps even a breakout-ready Marvin Harrison Jr. The defense has a couple of pieces to like in Josh Sweat and Budda Baker. The roster as a whole simply falls well short of the extremely high NFC West standard, though, which sets the Cardinals up for another long season.
Chalk up six division losses. Add in projected defeats to the myriad of other projected postseason contenders, and that column fills up extremely quickly. There is some runway at the end of the year to potentially build momentum heading into 2027 with the Jets, Saints and Vikings on the slate from Weeks 15-17, but even a win or two in that stretch might not be enough to keep the Cardinals from the bottom of the league standings.
New York Jets
The bottom should not fall out from underneath the Jets, because the front office made enough personnel moves defensively to raise the floor from what was an abysmal 2025 season. That does not guarantee upward mobility, though. This is a team that won a mere three games in Aaron Glenn's first campaign, and another slow start could see New York move on. The franchise has to ask itself whether Glenn is the one they want to oversee a rookie quarterback's development in 2026.
An in-season coaching change would be a forward-facing move that likely comes at the expense of wins in 2026. But even if Glenn holds onto his job, there is no reason to believe the Jets will flourish. Sure, there is young talent on the offense, but it is difficult to trust Geno Smith to utilize it at this stage of his career. And for all Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick accomplished over their combined 22 years in the league, veterans whose best football is behind them can only do so much in elevating the defense to a new tier.
Cleveland Browns
A ferocious defense won the Browns a couple of games last year. It often kept them competitive in losses, too. But Myles Garrett is gone. Regression is coming; the question is how much. Perhaps Jared Verse limits the impact of Garrett's departure. The secondary is still strong, and linebacker projects as a strength. The problem is that Cleveland cannot afford for its defense to take even a slight step backward, because the offense could be truly miserable.
The young building blocks are enticing. The quarterback situation remains the league's worst. Last year, that equation amounted to five wins and the No. 6 draft pick (before the Browns traded it to the Chiefs). It could amount to even less in 2026, because Deshaun Watson is simply that bad.
Cleveland is a middle-of-the-road quarterback away from being a respectable team. That has seemingly been the story for decades, but this time, there actually is a lot to be excited about at the other positions. The Browns could have their pick of signal-callers in the next draft, and they had better not mess it up again.
Tennessee Titans
Everything on paper suggests the Titans should be breakout candidates. They hold a second-year, former No. 1 overall pick quarterback and a promising young receiving unit. They boast arguably the best interior defensive lineman in football in Jeffery Simmons. The head coach-offensive coordinator tandem of Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll could be a terrific pairing.
What they showed in training camp and in preseason games, however, was not worthy of optimism. Ward went just 13-for-24 for 126 yards and no touchdowns in two preseason appearances. Saleh's starting defense had a couple of concerning lapses, most notably in the game against the Seahawks wherein Seattle's No. 2 offense logged a 36-yard passing touchdown and practice-squad running back Jacardia Wright broke loose for a 69-yard rushing score.
If the preseason was any indication of what is to come, the Titans will find themselves adding even more early-first-round assets to their young core. There will also be questions about whether Ward is fit to be that unit's ringleader.
