Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season is mostly in the books, with the New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams concluding the slate on Monday, Sept. 21. With most of the games wrapped up, we can look ahead to Week 3 spreads and highlight some of the best ATS picks you can make with help from the SportsLine Projection Model. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Use the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets when you spend $5+:
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
NFL Week 3 best ATS bets
Chiefs -11.5 vs. Dolphins
The Chiefs had a bit more trouble in Week 2 than they did in Week 1, needing overtime to knock off the Colts in a high-scoring thriller. Kansas City's decision to add Kenneth Walker to the backfield has paid immediate dividends, and Travis Kelce is looking rejuvenated in this offense. As Patrick Mahomes continues to get closer to 100%, the Chiefs will get that much more dynamic. On the flip side, the Dolphins seem to have no answers against top competition. Malik Willis has shown some flashes but this Kansas City defense can wreck even the best plans. Miami was not expected to be competitive this year and through two games, the results have been predictable. Kansas City covers the spread in 62% of SportsLine simulations.
Seahawks -6.5 vs. Commanders
Even with Sam Darnold sidelined, the Seahawks have not missed a beat. Drew Lock is making enough plays through the air to keep defenses on their toes, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba already has five touchdowns through two games. Seattle's defense remains elite and if the running game can get going, this team will be tough to slow down. The Commanders showed some fight in the first two weeks but are expected to be without quarterback Jayden Daniels, who dislocated his elbow in the Week 2 loss to the Cowboys. Seattle covers the spread in 65% of of SportsLine simulations.
Saints -3 vs. Raiders
Las Vegas is 2-0 under new head coach Klint Kubiak, but this is where the good vibes might end for the Raiders. The Saints have started slow in both of their games but they've stormed back both times. Their comeback effort against the Lions came up short due to a failed two-point conversion attempt but they beat the Ravens on the road in Week 2. Tyler Shough needs to be more consistent but this New Orleans defense has proven to be solid. The SportsLine model has the Saints covering the spread in 58% of simulations.
