NHL futures: Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon still favored to win 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy

After recording a career-high 53 goals during the 2025-26 NHL season to win the Maurice Richard Trophy, Nathan MacKinnon got off to a slow start this postseason as he failed to tally in the Colorado Avalanche's first three games of their first-round sweep of the Los Angeles Kings. But the 30-year-old center scored twice in the clinching contest of that series and once in each of the team's first four games of its second-round matchup against the Minnesota Wild, leaving him one goal shy of the lead in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

MacKinnon scored an empty-net goal in Monday's Game 4 versus Minnesota and is tied for fourth in goals (6) and fifth in points (12). And with major stars such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov and Sidney Crosby all exiting in the first round of the postseason, MacKinnon remains the favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy. He would join Joe Sakic (1996), Patrick Roy (2001) and current teammate Cale Makar (2022) as members of the Avalanche who have won the award.

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Also one of the finalists for the Hart Trophy as regular-season MVP, MacKinnon registered just one assist over Colorado's first three playoff games but followed with three consecutive three-point performances before scoring his team's lone goal in a 5-1 loss in Game 3 against the Wild. How far the Avalanche go in the postseason likely will be a factor as only six players from non-championship-winning teams have captured the Conn Smythe since it was first handed out in 1965. 

The most recent to accomplish the feat was McDavid, who earned the award after racking up 42 points as his Edmonton Oilers lost to the Florida Panthers in seven games in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final. McDavid was considered the second favorite for this year's Conn Smythe in the early going this postseason, but that distinction now belongs to Frederik Andersen of the Carolina Hurricanes, who leads all goaltenders in goals-against average (1.12), save percentage (.950) and shutouts (two). 

Other players with odds lower than +2000 for the Conn Smythe at this stage of the playoffs are Makar, Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mitch Marner and Carolina linemates Taylor Hall, Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven.

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Makar has recorded just one assist over Colorado's first seven games this postseason but is tied for first among all defensemen with four goals. Marner entered Monday as the playoff leader with 16 points after collecting at least two in four of his last five contests and Stankoven shares first place in goals with seven while Hall (nine assists, 12 points) and Blake (seven, 11) are among the top 10 in both assists and points. 

NHL futures odds at the major sports betting sites see MacKinnon as the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, with odds around +300. Andersen is the second favorite at +500 and Makar is third with odds in the +850 to +1000 range.

Pick: Andersen (+500, DraftKings/FanDuel/Caesars/BetMGM)

Yes, MacKinnon has been an offensive force of late, and he very well may lead the Avalanche to their second Stanley Cup championship in five years. But it's difficult to pick against a goaltender that has been as dominant in the first two rounds of the playoffs as Andersen has.

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Andersen is having his best postseason since his days with the Anaheim Ducks a decade ago. The 36-year-old Dane has been a major reason why the Hurricanes swept both the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers en route to their third appearance in the Eastern Conference final in four years and will have had at least a week of rest before facing either the Montreal Canadiens or Buffalo Sabres.

A two-time Jennings Trophy winner, Andersen has allowed fewer than three goals in each of his eight games this postseason. He began each of Carolina's first two series with a shutout and, although he has faced more than 27 shots only twice thus far, he has made some huge saves in critical moments and was rock-solid for a Hurricanes team that has reached the four-goal mark just two times.

Andersen did not fare well against Montreal and Buffalo during what was the worst regular season of his career, going 0-2-0 with a 3.73 GAA and .806 SP in two meetings with the Canadiens and allowing three goals on 20 shots in a loss in his only outing versus the Sabres. But he also was torched for five goals in his lone game against Ottawa -- a loss -- in 2025-26, and he limited the Senators to the same amount of tallies in four playoff contests -- including one that was decided in double overtime.

I've doubted Andersen in the postseason for years, and I did so again entering this year's playoffs. But he's certainly proven me wrong up to this point, and considering he'll have had plenty of time to recharge before returning to the crease, he's finally made a believer of me.

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