Bill Belichick may well be the greatest professional football coach in this country's history, but college football is a lot different from the NFL. That was evident in 2025 when North Carolina went 4-8 in Belichick's first season as a college head coach, not to mention some embarrassing off-field issues. The legendary coach will now lead his Tar Heels in the first game of the FBS season against TCU in Dublin, Ireland at Noon ET on Saturday. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 when they spend $5+:
The game will be played at Aviva Stadium, home of the Irish national rugby and soccer teams. Weather is always a concern in Ireland, and Saturday afternoon there's an 80% chance of showers with low winds and highs near 65 degrees. At DraftKings, TCU at -8.5 is taking 79% of the handle and wagers, while the total of 47.5 is taking split action.
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UNC vs. TCU pick
- North Carolina alt +11.5
DraftKings price: -151 (subject to change)
It's the fourth straight season the FBS season kicks off in Ireland with Iowa State beating Kansas State 24-21 last year. Overall, five of the past six games played in the country have been decided by three points or fewer. The underdog has won three of the past four outright.
Frankly, this year isn't going that much better for Belichick, at least off the field -- he is the +600 third-favorite to be the first power conference coach fired after Florida State's Mike Norvell (+300) and Maryland's Mike Locksley (+500). CBS Sports does an annual "Hot Seat" ranking entering the college football season and gives Belichick a grade of 4.1 on a scale of 1-5, with one meaning essentially untouchable and five meaning about to be fired.
While we haven't heard much from his girlfriend Jordon Hudson this year, thankfully, Belichick's right-hand man in general manager Michael Lombardi was placed on leave after a human resources complaint and is still away from the team. Lombardi was the guy who basically built the roster.
There's really nowhere go but up as the Heels got worse as the 2025 season went on, losing their final three games by an average of 15.3 points. Overall, Belichick suffered the most losses by at least 20 points (four) of his entire head coaching career. He will have a new starting quarterback in Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr. as he beat out Texas A&M transfer Miles O'Neill. In his four-year NCAA career, Edwards has taken nearly 1,000 snaps at the power conference level.
"Billy is probably a little more consistent," Belichick said of the decision. "[Edwards] has more experience. That showed up over the long haul."
Edwards Jr. was limited to just three games with the Badgers last season due to a knee injury. His most productive season came in 2024 at Maryland, when Edwards completed 65% of his passes for 2,881 yards, 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for five tochdowns. Edwards is 8-9 as a collegiate starter.
Last season with Gio Lopez as the primary quarterback, North Carolina averaged just 19.3 points per game (120th in FBS) and failed to reach 20 points in seven of 12 games. Belichick is a defensive coach and is pretty much off regarding the offense. He fired coordinator Freddie Kitchens and replaced him with well-traveled Bobby Petrino.
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The various sportsbooks aren't all that optimistic on the 2026 Tar Heels as they have a win total of just 4.5 overall and 2.5 in the ACC. They are +6000 longshots to simply reach the conference title game, which all but surely isn't happening. It's a pretty tough schedule overall with this matchup as well as facing AP No. 4 Notre Dame out of conference. In the ACC, the Heels visit Clemson and Virginia and host overwhelming league favorite Miami and ranked Louisville.
Belichick's collegiate debut foreshadowed the 2025 season as the Heels were clobbered 48-14 at home in the opener by TCU. The 48 points were the most allowed in a game in Belichick's head coaching career and it was his second biggest margin of defeat. Belichick has now lost four straight season openers with his last win coming in 2020 with the Patriots.
Carolina is 0-8 all-time vs. Big 12 teams, which surprised me. The Horned Frogs have won at least nine games and a bowl each of the past two seasons. Last year's club finished No. 25 in the AP Poll despite going 2-9 with a minus-11.5 points per game differential against power conference foes.
Coach Sonny Dykes brings back eight starters, losing three-year quarterback Josh Hoover, star receiver Eric McAlister (72 catches, 1,190 yards, 10 TDs) and leading tackler and sacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr, among others. Harvard transfer Jaden Craig takes over under center. TCU's win total this season is 7.5. It has won four straight season openers away from home and is 6-1 in its past seven overall against ACC foes.
While I expect TCU to win, the spread has risen enough to where I'm getting +11.5 at a pretty good price -- I'll take the 11.5 instead of 10.5 in case of some 2-point PAT nonsense or the like. I'm too skittish on the total to make this a parlay. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
