Phillies vs. Braves prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB playoff picks for Thursday, Oct. 1, by proven model

A spot in the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers will be on the line when the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of their Wild Card Series on Thursday. Philadelphia forced a deciding third game with a 4-3 10-inning win on Wednesday. The Phillies (88-74), who placed second in the NL East, are 46-37 on the road this season, including the 2026 MLB playoffs. The Braves (94-68), who won the division, are 53-30 on their home field in 2026. The Phillies are expected to send right-hander Aaron Nola (7-12, 4.67 ERA) to the mound, although right-hander Zack Wheeler (14-5, 3.00 ERA) is also under consideration. The Braves are expected to pitch right-hander Grant Holmes (10-6, 3.44 ERA), potentially following an opener. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after $10 deposit:

First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 8 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a -115 favorite on the money line (risk $115 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Braves odds, while the over/under is 7.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Braves picks, be sure to see the Braves vs. Phillies predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and enters the 2026 MLB playoffs on a 31-25 run on all top-rated MLB money-line picks at betting sites, returning more than $900 for $100 players. Anyone following its picks at MLB betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Phillies vs. Braves and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Braves vs. Phillies:

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Top Phillies vs. Braves predictions 

After 10,000 simulations of Phillies vs. Braves, the model is going Under 7.5 combined runs for over/under betting. The Under has hit in 44 of 83 Philadelphia road games, including four pushes. The Under is also 15-13-1 in games in which Atlanta's Grant Holmes has started. The Under has hit in four of the last nine Atlanta games, including two pushes. 

SportsLine's model projects 1.5 total bases or more for the Phillies' Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner. The Braves, meanwhile, are projected to get 1.4 total bases or more from Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Michael Harris. The model projects the teams to combine for 7.2 total runs, as the Under hits 59% of the time. Get the Phillies vs. Braves money-line pick at SportsLine.

How to make Braves vs. Phillies picks

After simulating every pitch of Phillies vs. Braves 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Braves vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.