Today's top games to watch, best bets, odds: Game 6 of Spurs vs. Timberwolves, MLB and more

The San Antonio Spurs seek to clinch their first trip to the Western Conference Finals since 2017 when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night for Game 6 of their best-of-seven semifinal series. Tipoff from the Target Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET.

The Spurs took command of the series behind a 126-97 blowout victory Tuesday night in San Antonio to claim a 3-2 series lead. Victor Wembanyama led six Spurs in double figures with 27 points and 17 rebounds, while reserve Keldon Johnson scored 21 points in 22 minutes. Stephon Castle added 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting to go along with six assists for a San Antonio club that shot 53% from the field.

Wembanyama was fortunate to avoid a suspension following his Game 4 flagrant foul for an intentional elbow that led to his first career ejection. The NBA Defensive Player of the Year's presence has been massive in this series, as he has led a defensive effort that has seen the Spurs average 8.2 blocks and 96 steals per game. They are also holding the Timberwolves to 41.4% field-goal shooting and 33% from 3-point range.

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Even so, the Timberwolves have been stubborn on their home floor throughout the playoffs, with just one defeat at the Target Center that came by a narrow 115-108 margin in Game 3. Anthony Edwards led all five starters in double figures with 36 points in the 114-109 Game 4 victory that saw Wembanyama's early exit, and the club will need another well-rounded performance in order to stave off elimination Friday.

San Antonio is a 5.5-point favorite and the over/under for total points scored is 218.5 in the latest NBA betting odds for Spurs vs. Timberwolves in Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference semifinals. 

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In addition to this NBA matchup, we'll take a look at an MLB showdown and preview the Preakness for Saturday. Here are the games to watch for Friday, May 15. All times Eastern.

NBA best bets, where to watch

Spurs at Timberwolves 

Time: 9:30 p.m. | Location: Minneapolis | TV: Prime Video

SportsLine pick -- Model: Timberwolves +5.5 

The SportsLine Projection Model's 10,000-game simulation loves the home underdog Timberwolves plus the points in what it sees a tight contest wire to wire. The model has the Timberwolves covering a whopping 61% of the time, a clear value window compared to the implied sportsbook odds of 52%. The model also forecasts the Timberwolves winning outright nearly half the time and likes the overlay for a +185 money-line price, while the sportsbook odds suggest just a 35% win probability for the Timberwolves. 

In the player prop market, the model envisions a strong game from Minnesota veteran center Rudy Gobert and offers a strong play on the Over 17.5 for his total points + rebounds + assists. 

MLB best bets, where to watch

Padres at Mariners

Time: 9:40 p.m. | Location: Seattle | TV: MLB.TV

SportsLine pick -- Model: Over 7 runs

The Mariners are coming off a 3-1 road series victory over the Houston Astros as they return to home to host the Padres in the opener of a three-game weekend series. The SportsLine Projection Model doesn't see much value on either side of the money line, but its 10,000-game simulation has generated a strong position on the Over 7 runs. The model is projecting an average final score of 4.5-4.4 in favor of Seattle, a total of nearly nine full runs that would send this contest past the total with room to spare.

Seattle will be without slugger Cal Raleigh, who was just placed on the 10-day injury list, but the Mariners have scored 24 runs across their last four contests. Projected Seattle starter Emerson Hancock gave up a season-high five earned runs in his last start but earned the victory in a 12-8 win over the Chicago White Sox.  

Looking ahead: Horse racing

2026 Preakness Stakes

Time: 6:50 p.m. Saturday | Location: Laurel, Md. | TV: NBC, Peacock

SportsLine pick -- Expert: Incredibolt 5-1 (Gene Menez) 

The 2026 Preakness Stakes lost a little bit of its luster after it was announced that Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo would sit out the race, nullifying the possibility of a Triple Crown winner in 2026. Even so, horse racing enthusiasts still find intrigue in what is the shortest of the Triple Crown races and one whose rich history includes the iconic Secretariat still holding the time record of 1:53, set in 1973.

SportsLine horse racing analyst Gene Menez is backing Incredibolt, who finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Menez notes Incredibolt lacked his signature strong late kick in the Kentucky Derby but says this "proven closer should be right there at the end."