A welterweight clash between Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim tops the card Saturday for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The ranked welterweights are part of a five-fight main card that will stream exclusively on Paramount+. Muhammad is the fifth-ranked welterweight in UFC but comes in off a loss by decision on Nov. 22, while Bonfim is ranked 11th but knocked out Randy Brown in the main event of a Fight Night card on Nov. 8.
The five-fight main card is scheduled to start at approximately 8 p.m. ET. Here, we break down the latest UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim odds for the main event, as well as the other four fights on the main card.
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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim main event (odds via DraftKings)
- Belal Muhammad (-122) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (+102)
Muhammad is a former UFC lightweight champion but is 37 years old and comes in off a unanimous decision loss to Ian Machado Garry at UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker just before Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Bonfim's last fight ended with a devastating knee that knocked Brown out cold in the main event at November's UFC Fight Night. Muhammad is 24-5-1 in his MMA career and 15-5 in the UFC, and he has been a master at taking opponents the distance. Of his 15 UFC victories, 12 have come via decision, with two by KO and one via submission. He is tied with Kamaru Usman for the most unanimous decision wins in UFC welterweight history. Bonfim has won six of seven fights in the UFC, with three by submission and one by KO. He is 19-1 overall in his MMA career, with 13 of those wins coming via submission and eight of his fights ending in the first round. His only loss came against Nicolas Dalby via KO on a Fight Night card in November 2023.
Muhammad has the third-highest takedown defense percentage in UFC welterweight history at 90.4%, which won't be good news to Bonfim, who typically looks for the submission. The 37-year-old also is adept at getting opponents to the mat, as he's secured 46 takedowns at welterweight, third-most among active welterweights and eighth-most all-time. Bonfim averages 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his takedown accuracy is almost 64%, nearly twice the UFC average. Both fighters also can throw hands when they need to, with both averaging more than 4.4 strikes landed per minute (the UFC average is 2.5). Muhammad is fourth all-time in UFC in total strikes landed with 2,120, while Bonfim has the edge in striking accuracy (47%-43.3%).
Not surprisingly, DraftKings Sportsbook lists decision as the most likely result, with it priced as the -115 favored outcome. The winner to prevail by KO is +215 and via submission is +275. Also as expected, Muhammad to win by decision is the +150 favorite, but if that doesn't happen, Bonfim is expected to win. The Brazilian is +350 to win by KO/TKO, and Bonfim to win by submission or decision are both +450. A Muhammad KO/TKO is +650, while the Chicago fighter to win by submission is the longest shot at +850. The Over/Under for total rounds is 3.5 (Over -188, Under +145). With Bonfim having youth on his side and only two fighters in UFC boasting longer win streaks than his five, I expect him to win against a decorated fighter on the downside of his career. I'm backing the fight to go the distance at -115 and will put a small stake on the Brazilian to win by decision.
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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim main card (Odds via DraftKings)
- Brendan Allen (-192) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+160)
- Fares Ziam (-310) vs. Tom Nolan (+250)
- Bryce Mitchell (-135) vs. Santiago Luna (+114)
- Iwo Baraniewski (-380) vs. Junior Tafa (+300)
On the Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim undercard, fourth-ranked middleweight Brendan Allen will face unranked Edmen Shahbazyan in a fight Allen says he took to stay active. Allen is 26-7 in his career, including 14-4 in UFC, and he stepped in on short notice last October and pulled off a big upset against Reinier de Ridder, ending the Dutchman's hopes for a title shot in the near future. Shahbazyan is a dangerous opponent for a top-five fighter to be facing, but Allen said there weren't a lot of options for a fight to keep him busy (and making money). The 28-year-old Shahbazyan, a California native fighting out of Las Vegas, is on a three-fight win streak that pushed his record 16-5 overall and 9-5 in the UFC, and 13 of his victories have come via KO/TKO. Allen, 30, has gotten most of his MMA victories by submission, with 14 of his 26 victories by that method and six via KO/TKO. DraftKings has Allen by submission as the favored outcome, and that's what I'll be backing at +200. Allen by decision is the +240 second choice, and oddsmakers see a chance that Shahbazyan can pull of the upset with a knockout, with the 28-year-old priced at +330, ahead of Allen by KO/TKO (+450) and Shahbazyan by decision (+650) or submission (+2500).
The bout between Ziam and Nolan is expected to be a little lopsided, with the Frenchman Ziam the 14th-ranked fighter in the lightweight division. But Nolan comes in on a four-fight win streak and is 10-1 overall and 4-1 in the UFC. Half of the 26-year-old Australian's victories have come via knockout, and Nolan's victory against Charlie Campbell on a rear naked chokehold on the Sept. 27 edition of Fight Night was named Performance of the Night. Ziam, 29, has won six consecutive fights, four by decision and two by knockout. He has been a balanced fighter in his career, going 18-4 overall and 8-2 in UFC with 11 finishes (6 KOs, 5 submissions). The DraftKings odds indicate Ziam is expected to, win but they're split on the method of victory. The Frenchman to win by KO/TKO is priced as the slight +175 favorite and is the result I'm backing, while a win by decision is +180. Nolan's most likely path to victory is to take it the distance (+550 to win by decision) or to land a knockout blow (+650).
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Oddsmakers expect the Mitchell vs. Luna bout to be one of the most competitive on the card, as either fighter to win by decision is the most likely result, according to the DraftKings odds. Mitchell by decision is the favored outcome at +140, with Luna by decision the second choice at +300. Mitchell, who is one of three fighters in UFC to win by Twister submission, is +380 to win by that method, but Luna by KO/TKO isn't far behind at +400. The bantamweight contest pits the established 31-year-old Mitchell (18-3 overall, 9-3 UFC) against the 21-year-old Luna (8-0, 2-0), one of the best young prospects in UFC. Luna has seven finishes among his eight victories, with four submission victories and three by KO/TKO. Nine of Mitchell's victories came by submission, so this one could see a lot of time on the mat. I expect Mitchell's experience to win out but think Luna could pull it off, so I'm backing submission as the method of victory (+280) no matter the victor.
Oddsmakers are expecting Baraniewski to finish off Tafa quickly in their light heavyweight bout, with Under 1.5 rounds strongly favored at a price of -330. Baraniewski's two UFC fights since coming out of the 2025 Contender Series have lasted less than 2 minutes total, with the most recent one ending in 28 seconds. The 27-year-old Polish fighter is 8-0 overall with six knockouts and two wins by submission. Tafa has won three UFC fights by KO but has lost his other five in the organization, and all four fights before he joined UFC were knockout victories. Odds on the fight to go the distance are -1400, and I'll back the Under 1.5 rounds in expectation of Baraniewski ending it with a quick knockout. Only one of Tafa's five losses has come via KO, with three via submission, but the Australian hasn't seen a fighter with such a track record for ending things early.
