The American League MVP Award has been dominated by two players since 2021, with only Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge taking home the hardware. With Ohtani in the National League with the Dodgers the last two years, Judge won his second and third MVPs. The star Yankees outfielder has been the betting favorite to win his third straight MVP all year long, but that's no longer the case.
Judge is on the injured list with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side and will be out for a large chunk of time this season. He won't get reimaging done on the rib for another four to six weeks, and the only other thing we know about a timeline is that New York expects Judge to return at some point this year.
Naturally, this injury news has massively shaken up the AL MVP odds board at top sportsbooks. At BetMGM Sportsbook, Judge was -125 to win MVP in 2026 ahead of the injury news. Now? Judge is a +10000 longshot given he'll miss at least a month.
Unless he makes a miraculous recovery and returns within the next five to six weeks, it looks like we'll have an AL MVP not named Judge or Ohtani for the first time since Jose Abreu's MVP season for Chicago during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Besides the few instances where a pitcher has won MVP, the most games a player has missed during a 162-game season while still winning MVP was 36 by Pittsburgh's Willie Stargell back in 1979. Kirk Gibson missed 35 games with the Dodgers in 1988, and recently, Ohtani missed 27 games in 2023, including each of the last 25.
So with Judge on the shelf for the foreseeable future, what do the AL MVP odds look like? Those interested in MLB betting and placing futures bets at different sportsbooks need to know what the race looks like and why you should back and fade some of the top candidates.
American League MVP odds via BetMGM
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros: +140
- Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: +145
- Ben Rice, Yankees: +350
- Nick Kurtz, Athletics: +850
- Julio Rodriguez, Mariners: +2200
- Junior Caminero, Rays: +2800
- Jose Ramirez, Guardians, +3000
- Shea Langeliers, Athletics: +3000
- Byron Buxton, Twins: +4000
- Mike Trout, Angels: +5500
There are two clear frontrunners at sportsbooks in Kansas City's Witt and Houston's Alvarez. Alvarez is the favorite at BetMGM, but some sportsbooks, like DraftKings, favor Witt. Regardless, they're viewed as the two top contenders across the board.
Both are well deserving based on how they've played this year. Witt is one of the best all-around players in baseball, and he owns a .281/.356/.462 (.818 OPS) line with nine homers, 21 stolen bases and 3.7 bWAR, tops in the American League. Alvarez has swatted 21 homers, is hitting .316 with a 1.077 OPS and has driven in 41 runs.
The issue with these two? Their teams haven't been very good. Kansas City is 25-38 -- the second-worst record in the American League -- while Houston isn't much better at 28-36. The AL West has been baseball's worst division this year, so the Astros aren't out of it yet and are 5.5 games back of Seattle in the standings.
Playing for a losing team doesn't automatically disqualify you from winning MVP, especially in the American League. Ohtani and Trout played for some bad Angels teams while still taking home the hardware, and Alex Rodriguez's Rangers lost 91 games back in 2004. It does often complicate things, though, and voters have often given the benefit of the doubt to players whose squads make the postseason or at least come close to reaching the playoffs.
As such, Judge's teammate, Rice, is worth a look at +350. He's hitting .300, OPSing over 1.000 and has 17 homers and 44 RBIs. He's had a better overall season than Judge to this point. The Yankees are firmly established in the American League playoff picture, and they trail Tampa Bay by just a half-game entering Friday. Even with Judge out, Rice and Co. could have the Yankees taking control of the division in the very near future.
The A's have two intriguing sluggers near the top of the board in Kurtz and Langeliers. Kurtz hasn't had quite the same power numbers as he did as a rookie a year ago, but he's still swatted 11 bombs, driven in 43 runs and leads MLB with a .437 on-base percentage while walking a whopping 57 times through 61 games. Langeliers is OPSing .915 thanks to 16 homers, and that kind of offensive production from a backstop always catches voters' eyes. The A's led the AL West for much of the year, but currently trail the Mariners by 2.5 games.
Speaking of the Mariners, Julio Rodriguez had a big month of May, hitting 10 homers -- the most he's had in a single month in his entire career. Rodriguez is carrying more of the load for Seattle with Cal Raleigh, last year's AL MVP runner-up, on the IL, and his hot play has helped Seattle surge to first place. Rodriguez has finished in the top 10 of MVP voting in three of his first four seasons, and he's usually started slow. He owns a career .297/.351/.552 (.902 OPS) line in the second half, so we could be seeing his best overall offensive season in 2026, which certainly could play a role in AL MVP voting.
The two third basemen listed above -- Caminero and Ramirez -- are also very intriguing, especially at +2800 and +3000, respectively. Caminero has hit 14 homers and driven in 30 for a Rays team that leads the AL East right now, and he's a major part of their past and future success. Ramirez is a mainstay in MVP voting, but he's never won the award, instead finishing second once, third twice and in the top 10 in eight of the last nine seasons. He's shaken off a cold start at the dish and is now OPSing .780, and he's already swiped 22 bases. His best baseball this year may very well be upcoming, so he's someone who could shoot up the odds boards. This +3000 price at MGM may soon be a thing of the past.
