USA vs. Italy odds, picks, predictions, expert best bets for World Baseball Classic game on Tuesday, March 10
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca dishes his best bets for USA vs. Italy in Tuesday's game at the World Baseball Classic
After a 5-3 win over Mexico in Monday's game, the United States continues to work through Pool B at the World Baseball Classic when it takes on Italy on Tuesday, March 10. The Americans can clinch the top spot in the pool with a victory, though their head-to-head win over Mexico already gives them a great shot to advance to the quarterfinal round even if they were to lose on Tuesday. The Italians still have to face Mexico in what will likely determine who advances to the next round, but they are also unbeaten so far in pool play.
First pitch is set for 9 p.m. ET. Nolan McLean is set to take the ball for USA while Italy rolls with Michael Lorenzen. Before making wagers on USA vs. Italy, you need to know what SportsLine baseball expert Angelo Magliocca is betting for this contest.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for USA vs. Italy on Tuesday:
United States vs. Italy best bets
- Kyle Schwarber 2+ hits/runs/RBI and Roman Anthony 2+ hits/runs/RBI (-110): 0.5 units
- Will Smith to hit a home run (+450): 0.25 units
After a huge win last night against team Mexico, the USA turns right around to face a 2-0 Italy team on Tuesday. Rising Mets star Nolan McLean takes the mound for the Americans against MLB veteran Michael Lorenzen for Italy. While the numbers may look good for the Italians on paper with a 2-0 record and having allowed just four runs through two games, they've yet to play a level of competition like they will in their next couple games against the United States and Mexico. They've lined up two MLB starters for this run with the USA facing Lorenzen, as their hopes rest primarily with Aaron Nola on Wednesday in what is likely to be a winner-take-all game against Mexico.
The Italians do have talent on this roster with MLB stars Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone and the aforementioned Nola, but their depth falls off quickly. They have some serviceable relief arms as well, but it likely won't be enough to knock off the United States and I wouldn't even be surprised to see this game end by mercy rule. If the Americans win tonight, they'll go undefeated and lock in the top seed from the pool, giving them a game against the runner-up from Pool A in the quarterfinals. Whoever the runner-up in Pool A is will be a significant underdog to the USA, which if all goes to plan would put the Americans into the semifinals with a rather easy route. It's not to say the USA has to win this game but losing would be disastrous, especially after winning that game last night against Mexico.
Last night, Anthony finally broke through for that home run we have been chasing for a few games, and at great odds of +600. I mentioned in the Sportsline Discord pregame chat I was going to play the home run and if he's back in the lineup, I think we have to play it again. Anthony has reached base in eight of his 15 plate appearances with four hits and one home run, so I also love his ability to get on base, making the hits + runs + RBI prop bet a perfect pairing for the young star. Getting on base ahead of these elite hitters has proven to at minimum give us a run in many cases, so the walks don't hurt as much as with a regular MLB lineup. The story is similar for Schwarber, who's been locked in and had five hits in 12 at-bats, reaching on a walk in four other plate appearances. Schwarber has a home run in this tournament and if we get him hitting atop the order again, I love his hitting props. When Bobby Witt Jr. sat last, Gunnar Henderson was dropped in the order leaving Schwarber to hit leadoff and while the lineup arrangement is still very much in question at this moment, I love targeting the lefties here.
Keep an eye on the lines here because with the lineup not finalized, not many books are offering props on Dodgers catcher Will Smith. But with Cal Raleigh catching the entire game last night, we'll see if manager Mark DeRosa wants to insert Smith back in there as he did a couple games ago. The Dodgers backstop was robbed of a home run in that game and if given another chance in this one against Italy, I think he continues to hit the ball hard and finally puts one out. In the game against Great Britain, Smith hit a lineout at 98 mph exit velocity, a sac fly at 105 mph and the fly ball that was robbed for a home run was 98 mph off the bat as well. He also walked twice so he was certainly in the mix to help USA win the game, but it was more a game of missed opportunities than anything for the catcher. I love the spot to get back on the train here if he's playing. The hits + runs + RBI would be my favorite bet here but with it not available yet, I'll leave that one out and mention I'm also playing the home run.
