In my humble opinion, the most interesting quarterback competition ongoing in the NFL is in Minnesota because it's a matchup of former top-10 draft picks in new addition Kyler Murray and incumbent JJ McCarthy. Which one starts the season opener on Sept. 13 at home against Green Bay? Let's break down the FanDuel odds.
Like I did last Monday with the Atlanta Falcons' QB race, let's go ahead and eliminate the betting longshot, which in Minnesota's case is Carson Wentz at +7000. The 33-year-old was re-signed to a one-year deal in March. Wentz started five games last year for Minnesota, eventually got shut down for the season due to injury, went 2-3 and now is exactly breakeven as a starter in the NFL at 49-49-1 overall.
Wentz should stick with the club as the third-stringer as Minnesota has used three or more QBs in each of coach Kevin O'Connell's four seasons in charge. Plus, Murray and McCarthy both have some history with injuries.
Frankly, the Vikings should have tried harder following a 14-win 2024 season to keep Sam Darnold, but of course he left in free agency for Seattle and led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl title last season. The 2024 Vikings also had Daniel Jones on the roster for a bit but couldn't keep him, either, as Jones signed with the Colts and was playing well before getting hurt.
Minnesota thought so highly of McCarthy that it traded up in the 2024 draft with the Jets to take the Michigan quarterback at No. 10 overall. But McCarthy missed his first season due to an injury and was wildly inconsistent in 10 starts last year, going 6-4 but completing only 57.6% of his throws with 11 touchdowns and 12 picks.
He finished last in the league in completion percentage, TD-INT ratio and passer rating. Superstar wideout Justin Jefferson seemed displeased with McCarthy at times and had career lows in receiving yards (1,048) and receiving TDs (two). In April, Jefferson told reporters that it was time for McCarthy "to step it up a little bit" or "take that back seat again." The 2025 Vikings averaged only 20.2 points, 26th in the league and the team's lowest since 2010.
McCarthy did win his final four starts with seven total touchdowns and three turnovers, ranking No. 7 in the NFL with a 69.8 QBR over that period, compared to 2-4 in his first six starts eight total TDs and 11 turnovers. We should say McCarthy enjoyed some of that late success against a few of the NFL's worst defenses. Thus, he's +600 to be the Week 1 guy against Green Bay, which likely won't have star pass rusher Micah Parsons as he rehabs from a torn ACL.
Will O'Connell take McCarthy's lone game against Green Bay in 2025 into consideration in naming a Week 1 starter? The QB was an ugly 12-for-19 for 87 yards, two picks and five sacks taken in a Week 12 blowout loss at Lambeau Field. McCarthy does have the edge of having a personal connection with teammates that he built in his two years inside the Vikings' locker room and he obviously knows O'Connell's offense better than Murray.
The former No. 1 overall pick Murray was released by Arizona in the offseason despite still owed $36.8 million guaranteed, so the Vikings got him no a cheap one-year, $1.3 million deal to try an resurrect his career under a terrific QB whisperer in O'Connell â who declined to name Murray his starter when the team signed him. Murray is the -1000 favorite to start the opener.
In the Vikings' most recent OTAs, Murray and McCarthy both took snaps with projected starters and against the likely first-team defense. Minnesota has a mandatory minicamp this week so we might get a bit more clarity. Murray, limited to five games last year with the Cardinals due to injury and simple ineffectiveness, is a +600 second favorite behind Patrick Mahomes for NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
The SportsLine Projection Model has Minnesota winning the opener, 23-20, and Murray as the starting QB against Green Bay. It projects him to throw for 191 yards with 1.45 TDs and 1.15 INTs while rushing for 26 yards on 4.9 carries. Both he and McCarthy are mobile.
