World Baseball Classic picks: Top predictions from MLB expert for Friday's Team USA vs. Canada quarterfinal
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca digs into Friday's Canada vs. Team USA quarterfinal at the World Baseball Classic and offers his top plays
Team USA earned a reprieve and will try to make the most of it Friday when it faces Canada in a World Baseball Classic quarterfinal in Houston. The United States went 3-1 in pool play but needed an Italy victory against Mexico on the last day to advance. Canada beat Cuba 7-2 in a win-or-go-home scenario on Wednesday and will send Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Michael Soroka to the hill. Team USA will counter with Logan Webb, the San Francisco Giants ace who struck out six and allowed one run in four innings against Brazil in the WBC opener.
Friday's first pitch at at Houston's Daikin Park is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Americans are -900 money-line favorite at DraftKings, with Canada a +550 underdog. The Over/Under for total runs scored is 9.5, and Team USA is favored by 4.5 on the run line. Before you make any wagers on Team USA vs. Canada, make sure you check out what SportsLine baseball expert Angelo Magliocca is betting for this contest.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for Team USA vs. Canada on Friday:
Team USA vs. Canada best bets
- Under 10 Runs (-125 DraftKings, 1 unit)
- Owen Caissie 1+ Hits/Runs/RBI (-140 DraftKings, 0.5 units)
- Roman Anthony 2+ Hits/Runs/RBI (-140 DraftKings, 0.5 units)
Canada set itself up to win Pool A by beating Puerto Rico, which was undefeated before the loss, then the Canadians had to beat Cuba on Wednesday to officially take the top spot. The victory against Puerto Rico was huge for the Canadians' confidence and seeding, and the win against Cuba was not easy, having to knock off one of the Japanese league's best pitchers, Liván Moinelo.
The Canadians have looked up to the challenge in each matchup so far, even their lone loss, and aside from some errors in the field, they have less to improve than the USA. In a one-game, sudden-death format, I actually like siding with Canada at +5 on DraftKings at -122, where they just need to avoid losing by six or more runs.
I have this game being closer than most sportsbooks projections, so that spread plays well if we get a close, gritty game. Canada has allowed just 10 runs through four games, and with the USA adding fresh arms to their bullpen, I'm taking the full game under 10.
Team Canada will start Michael Soroka after he allowed four hits in three innings in his first WBC appearance. He got through that start against Colombia without giving up a run, but it won't be nearly as easy to pitch around trouble vs. this USA lineup.
The Canada bullpen is significantly worse talent-wise than the USA's, but anything can happen in one game and these bullpen arms have allowed just three earned runs across 16 innings so far.
Place your bets at Fanatics, where you get $200 in FanCash when you bet $5 or more:
Logan Webb, who was also great in his first WBC appearance, pitches for the USA, and behind him will be a retooled bullpen, with Tim Hill, Tyler Rogers and Joe Ryan added into the mix.
Ryan should be the championship game starter if the USA gets there, but they could use him in a pinch if needed. Hill and Rogers both throw from funky arm angles, and the addition of Hill, the lefty, is a great one to help neutralize the Canadians' stockpile of left-handed hitters
Caissie has been great so far in the tournament, with seven hits in 14 at bats, and he's driven in five runs along the way. He's also struck out five times, but he's been integral to Canada's success thus far, should play the entire game in left field, and have opportunities while hitting in the heart of the order.
We normally don't get a price like this for just one hit, run or RBI, so I'll take a shot that Caissie does something productive.
Similar to Caissie, Roman Anthony has been great so far, with five hits in 15 at bats, along with six RBI and four walks. He's struck out just twice and with the USA being the away team and getting the full nine at bats, I love Anthony getting multiple opportunities late in the game against the Canadian bullpen.
Even if he can't get it done against the relievers, Anthony is actually 2-for-2 against Soroka in his short career, and has been on base in all three of his plate appearances against the right-hander. I'll also be playing the HR prop since we continue to get solid odds above +500.
