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Fans and media draw conclusions about conference strength based on the NCAA Tournament. While too simplistic an approach, it is always interesting to see how conferences perform in the bracket.
This year, the tournament has been especially kind to the Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten reputations, while the ACC is licking its wounds. And then there’s the Big 12, which was rated the best league all season but didn’t get that level of respect. With the Sweet 16 set, here’s where the big six stand after 52 tournament games. If you’re curious on other multi-bid leagues from 2017, the WCC is 3-1, the American went 1-2 and the Atlantic 10 went 1-3.
ACC
2017 NCAA Tournament record: 7-8
Team remaining: North Carolina
The ACC sent the second most teams to the tournament in history, with only the Tar Heels still standing. By comparison, last year the league was 12-1 with six teams in the Sweet 16. This is a financial disaster for the conference, which was expecting millions in NCAA Tournament units but has a sub-.500 record. There was discussion and debate about the historical strength of the ACC this season. To sputter out of the tourney’s first weekend obviously eliminates the league from any conversation among all-time best conferences. When you didn’t even rate as the toughest conference by metrics (Big 12), then fail to get two teams into the regional semifinals, that argument is settled.
This also serves as a reminder that the tournament is a fantastic machine of randomness. If you played out this exact field of 68 another 10,000 times, how often would only one ACC team make the Sweet 16? I would guess about 2 percent of the time, so this was aberrational. But getting kicked in the gut eight times rightfully brings the league down a notch. Blowout endings for Virginia, Florida State and Miami hurt, too.
I don’t think the league was overrated, just overstated.
Big Ten
2017 NCAA Tournament record: 8-4
Teams remaining: Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin
After a weird season and a clogged middle of the standings, the Big Ten has come out A-OK. Purdue has played to its seed expectation, while Michigan and Wisconsin exceeded. The over/under for Big Ten teams getting to the Sweet 16 was most certainly something like .5. The best team (Purdue) and the team thought to be the best in the preseason (Wisconsin) have navigated their way to the second weekend.
The Big Ten took some understandable hits. Indiana hit an injury-affected tailspin. Ohio State had a second straight down season. Michigan State was unusually just OK (again: injuries). Illinois missed the tournament again. And yet, the tournament can redeem. What would really be a boon is if one of these three teams managed to make it to Phoenix. If Purdue and Michigan win their next games, it’s a guarantee: They’re both in the Midwest.
Big 12
2017 NCAA Tournament record: 8-3
Teams remaining: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia
The Big 12 has done well for itself. Kansas cruised through its first two games, West Virginia looked particularly affirmative in beating Notre Dame, and Baylor made its fourth Sweet 16 since 2010. The Bears got a scare from Southern California, but now they are matched up against South Carolina, and stand to make the third Elite Eight of Scott Drew’s career. No league was better against top-100 competition in nonconference play than the Big 12. Iowa State went down proudly, playing a great one against Purdue. Oklahoma State lost 92-91 in a thriller against a Michigan team that hit 11 second-half 3-pointers. What can you do?
It would be fitting if at least one made the Final Four, but all three remaining teams have real reason to believe they can get to Phoenix. Kansas gets to roll through Kansas City in the Midwest. West Virginia’s style gives the Mountaineers a distinct opportunity against Gonzaga and the rest of the West Region. And Baylor is now the highest-seeded team left in the crapshoot East.
SEC
2017 NCAA Tournament record: 7-2
Teams remaining: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina
No league enhanced its reputation more in the past week than the SEC, which has outperformed seed expectations and done an overall script-flip. But this is a fine example of why we shouldn’t overreact in March. Truth is, the SEC was the nation’s fifth-best league this season. Sometimes, the breaks go your way. Matchups mean a lot. Kentucky came close to losing to Wichita State. Vanderbilt maybe should have beaten Northwestern, if not for a mishap foul by Matthew Fisher-Davis when the Commodores were up one late. Florida proved its value by handling its business in a big way.
And then there’s South Carolina, which was boosted by playing its games in-state and getting the best game-over-game performance from anyone in the tournament. Sindarius Thornwell has been awesome. The SEC Player of the Year backed it up against Marquette and Duke. It’s a weird world where the SEC outperforms the ACC so dominantly in the tournament (South Carolina’s win over Duke as the defining element), but that comes along with the tournament’s terrific unpredictability.
Big East
2017 NCAA Tournament record: 5-5
Teams remaining: Butler, Xavier
You can say this, and it’s a good thing for the Big East: Its best team and the only one considered a national title threat, is out -- yet the conference has done well in the bracket. A .500 mark is respectable. My baseline: If you can get two teams to the Sweet 16, no matter how big your league or how many bids, that’s a good season. Just take it. Ask the ACC. That league would still be getting dinged, but not nearly as much, had Duke or Louisville managed to merely play to seed expectation and win their first two games.
The Big East has two programs that are known for stability in March. Butler is seeded higher than ever. Xavier played its style against Maryland, then embarrassed No. 3 Florida State. House money from here on out. The Musketeers have to play No. 2 Arizona and the Bulldogs have to play No. 1 North Carolina. It has been a good season for the Big East, the nation’s third-best conference this season.
Pac-12
2017 NCAA Tournament record: 8-1
Teams remaining: Arizona, UCLA, Oregon
The Pac-12 has the fewest losses of any multi-bid league. The question heading into the NCAAs was: How good are its three best teams? The league rated worse than the SEC. When these three teams haven’t played each other, Arizona, UCLA and Oregon are 35-0 against everyone else since the end of January. It’s ridiculous.
Arizona got a push from Saint Mary’s, as expected. Now Sean Miler tries to make his third Elite Eight in four years. Oregon probably should have lost to Rhode Island, but Tyler Dorsey, people. Tyler Dorsey. UCLA had a nice fight from Kent State, then was able to impose its strength on a really good Cincinnati team. Now these three teams have interesting but different matchups in the Sweet 16. I would be surprised if the Pac-12 doesn’t have at least two teams playing Saturday or Sunday. Zona, Oregon and UCLA have carried the league, basically, and continue to do so. Ironically, the Pac-12 rates the worst of any of the big six, but no conference’s top three were as strong as this 1-2-3. The first weekend of the tournament reaffirmed that.