There was always a chance, however unlikely, that Virginia could return all five starters from a team that won the 2019 NCAA Tournament because the only senior on this season's roster was Jack Salt, who averaged 3.7 points in just 16.6 minutes per game. If things broke a certain way, the Cavaliers would've been the favorites to win the 2020 NCAA Tournament and become college basketball's first back-to-back champs since Florida in 2006 and 2007. But, as you probably heard, things have not broken in a favorable way. So now Tony Bennett has holes to fill because Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome and De'Andre Hunter — otherwise known as the top three scorers from this season's team — have announced they're leaving school early and starting their professional careers. Nobody is testing the waters. They're all in the NBA Draft, 100 percent, for better or worse.
So where does that leave Virginia?
Answer: Still in the top 10, I think, if only because Bennett remains the coach and has consistently shown the ability to keep the Cavaliers near the top of the sport regardless of who's coming or going. Consider Virginia's past six final KenPom rankings as evidence:
- 2014: No. 4
- 2015: No. 6
- 2016: No. 4
- 2017: No. 12
- 2018: No. 2
- 2019: No. 1
What that shows is that Virginia's average KenPom finish over the past six seasons has been 4.8 — and that the Cavaliers have only landed outside of the top 10 once. That's a remarkable run. And it's why I'm simply going to trust Virginia to be good again despite three early departures that have significantly lowered the level of talent in the program. So Virginia is No. 9 in the updated Top 25 And 1 -- which was initially published right after the Cavaliers won the title game. These rankings have been updated multiple times since as developments have deemed it necessary. Expect the same going forward.
Top 25 And 1
| 1 |  |
| Coach: Tom Izzo 2018-19 record: 32-7 Notable players definitely gone: Nick Ward, Matt McQuaid, Kenny Goins Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Cassius Winston, Joshua Langford, Xavier Tillman, Aaron Henry, Kyle Ahrens, Gabe Brown, Foster Loyer, Thomas Kithier, Marcus Bingham Expected additions: Malik Hall, Rocket Watts, Julius Marble | |
| 2 |  |
| Coach: Mike Krzyzewski 2018-19 record: 32-6 Notable players definitely gone: Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Tre Jones, Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell, Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Jordan Goldwire, Joey Baker Expected additions: Vernon Carey, Wendell Moore, Boogie Ellis, Matthew Hurt, Cassius Stanley | |
| 3 |  |
| Coach: John Calipari 2018-19 record: 30-7 Notable players definitely gone: Reid Travis, PJ Washington, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, Jemarl Baker Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley, Nick Richards, EJ Montgomery Expected additions: Nate Sestina, Kahlil Whitney, Tyrese Maxey, Keion Brooks, Dontaie Allen, Brennan Canada | |
| 4 |  |
| Coach: Chris Mack 2018-19 record: 20-14 Notable players definitely gone: Christen Cunningham, Khwan Fore Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton, Steven Enoch, Malik Williams, Ryan McMahon, Darius Perry, V.J. King Expected additions: Lamarr Kimble, Samuell Williamson, Aidan Igheion, David Johnson, Josh Nickelberry, Jaelyn Withers, Quinn Slazinski | |
| 5 |  |
| Coach: Mark Turgeon 2018-19 record: 23-11 Notable players definitely gone: Ivan Bender Other expected departures: Bruno Fernando Notable players expected to return: Anthony Cowan, Jalen Smith, Darryl Morsell, Aaron Wiggins, Serrel Smith, Eric Ayala, Ricky Lindo Expected additions: Makhi Mitchel, Makhel Mitchell, Donta Scott, Hakim Hart | |
| 6 |  |
| Coach: Roy Williams 2018-19 record: 29-7 Notable players definitely gone: Coby White, Cameron Johnson, Luke Maye, Kenny Williams, Nassir Little, Seventh Woods Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Garrison Brooks, Sterling Manley, Brandon Robinson, Leaky Black Expected additions: Cole Anthony, Armando Bacot, Anthony Harris, Jeremiah Francis | |
| 7 |  |
Coach: Bill Self 2018-19 record: 26-10 Notable players definitely gone: Dedric Lawson, Lagerald Vick, KJ Lawson, Charlie Moore, Quintin Grimes Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Udoka Azubuike, Devon Dotson, Ochai Agbaji, Marcus Garrett, David McCormack, Mitch Lightfoot Expected additions: Isaac McBride, Christian Braun | |
| 8 |  |
Coach: Mark Few 2018-19 record: 33-4 Notable players definitely gone: Brandon Clarke, Rui Hachimura, Josh Perkins, Geno Crandall, Jeremy Jones Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Zach Norvell, Corey Kispert, Killian Tillie, Filip Petrusev, Joel Ayayi Expected additions: Drew Timme, Anton Watson, Pavel Zakharov, Oumar Ballo, Martynas Arlauskas, Brock Ravet | |
| 9 |  |
| Coach: Tony Bennett 2018-19 record: 35-3 Notable players definitely gone: De'Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, Jack Salt Other expected departures: Marco Anthony Notable players expected to return: Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key, Jay Huff, Kihei Clark Expected additions: Kadin Shedrick, Casey Morsell, Justin McKoy | |
| 10 |  |
| Coach: Kevin Willard 2018-19 record: 20-14 Notable players definitely gone: Michael Nzei Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Darnell Brodie, Myles Powell, Myles Cale, Romaro Gill, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Quincy McKnight, Anthony Nelson, Taurean Thompson Expected additions: Ikey Obiagu (transfer), Tyrese Samuel, Dashawn Davis | |
| 11 |  |
| Coach: Jay Wright 2018-19 record: 26-10 Notable players definitely gone: Phil Booth, Eric Paschall, Joe Cremo, Jahvon Quinerly Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Collin Gillispie, Saddiq Bey, Jermaine Samuels, Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, Cole Swider, Brandon Slater, Tim Delaney Expected additions: Bryan Antoine, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Justin Moore, Eric Dixon | |
| 12 |  |
| Coach: Bruce Pearl 2018-19 record: 30-10 Notable players definitely gone: Bryce Brown, Jared Harper, Malik Dunbar, Horace Spencer Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Chuma Okeke, Samir Doughty, Austin Wiley, Anfernee McLemore, J'Von McCormick, Danjel Purifoy Expected additions: Isaac Okoro, Tyrell Jones, Jaylin Williams, Babatunde Akingbola, Allen Flanigan, Jamal Johnson | |
| 13 |  |
| Coach: Dana Altman 2018-19 record: 25-13 Notable players definitely gone: Bol Bol, Louis King, Paul White, Ehab Amin Other expected departures: Miles Norris Notable players expected to return: Payton Pritchard, Victor Bailey, Kenny Wooten, Will Richardson, Francis Okoro Expected additions: CJ Walker, Isaac Johnson, Chandler Lawson, Chris Duarte | |
| 14 |  |
| Coach: Sean Miller 2018-19 record: 17-15 Notable players definitely gone: Justin Coleman, Ryan Luther Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Brandon Randolph, Brandon Williams, Chase Jeter, Dylan Smith, Ira Lee, Devonaire Doutrive, Alex Barcello Expected additions: Max Hazzard, Nico Mannion, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji, Terry Armstrong, Christian Koloko, Stone Gettings | |
| 15 |  |
| Coach: John Beilein 2018-19 record: 30-7 Notable players definitely gone: Charles Matthews, Jordan Poole Other expected departures: Ignas Brazdeikis Notable players expected to return: Jon Teske, Zavier Simpson, Isaiah Livers, Eli Brooks, Austin Davis, David DeJulius, Brandon Johns Expected additions: Jalen Wilson, Cole Bajema | |
| 16 |  |
Coach: Fran McCaffery 2018-19 record: 23-12 Notable players definitely gone: Nicolas Baer, Maishe Dailey Other expected departures: Tyler Cook Notable players expected to return: Jordan Bohannon, Luka Garza, Ryan Kriener, Connor McCaffery, Isaiah Moss, Joe Wieskamp, Jack Nunge, Cordell Pemsl Expected additions: Patrick McCaffery, Joe Toussaint | |
| 17 |  |
| Coach: Kelvin Sampson 2018-19 record: 33-4 Notable players definitely gone: Corey Davis, Breaon Brady, Galen Robinson Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Dejon Jarreau, Cedrick Alley, Armoni Brooks, Brison Gresham, Fabian White, Chris Harris, Nate Hinton Expected additions: Caleb Mills, Justin Gorham | |
| 18 |  |
| Coach: Matt Painter 2018-19 record: 25-8 Notable players definitely gone: Carsen Edwards, Ryan Cline, Grady Eifert Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Nojel Eastern, Eric Hunter Jr., Aaron Wheeler, Matt Haarms, Trevion Williams, Evan Boudreaux, Sasha Stefanovic Expected additions: Brandon Newman, Isaiah Thompson, Mason Gillis, Jahaad Proctor | |
| 19 |  |
| Coach: Penny Hardaway 2018-19 record: 22-14 Notable players definitely gone: Jeremiah Martin, Kyvon Davenport, Kareem Brewton, Raynere Thornton, Mike Parks, Antwann Jones Other expected departures: Victor Enoh Notable players expected to return: Tyler Harris, Isaiah Maurice, Alex Lomax Expected additions: James Wiseman, RJ Hampton, Precious Achiuwa, D.J. Jeffries, Lester Quinones, Malcolm Dandridge, Damion Baugh, Lance Thomas, Ryan Boyce | |
| 20 |  |
| Coach: Mike Rhoades 2018-19 record: 25-8 Notable players definitely gone: Michael Gilmore Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Marcus Evans, Isaac Vann, Deriante Jenkins, Marcus Santos-Silva, Sean Mobley, Vince Williams, Mike'L Simms, P.J. Byrd, Malik Crowfield Expected additions: Jarren McAlister | |
| 21 |  |
| Coach: Rick Barnes 2018-19 record: 31-6 Notable players definitely gone: Admiral Schofield, Kyle Alexander Other expected departures: Grant Williams, Jordan Bone Notable players expected to return: Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, Jalen Johnson, Derrick Walker Expected additions: Josiah-Jordan James, Drew Pember, Davonte Gaines | |
| 22 |  |
| Coach: Chris Beard 2018-19 record: 31-7 Notable players definitely gone: Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney, Tariq Owens, Brandone Francis, Norense Odiase Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Davide Moretti, Kyler Edwards, Deshawn Corprew, Khavon Moore, Andrei Savrasov Expected additions: Jahmius Ramsey, Kevin McCullar, Russel Tchewa, Terrence Shannon, Clarence Nadolny | |
| 23 |  |
| Coach: Scott Drew 2018-19 record: 20-14 Notable players definitely gone: Makai Mason, King McClure Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Devonte Bandoo, Jared Butler, Tristan Clark, Freddie Gillespie, Mario Kegler, Matthew Mayer, Flo Thamba, Mark Vital Expected additions: Davion Mitchell, Macio Teague, Jordan Turner | |
| 24 |  |
| Coach: Greg McDermott 2018-19 record: 20-15 Notable players definitely gone: Kaleb Joseph, Connor Cashaw, Samson Froling Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Martin Krampelj, Ty-Shon Alexander, Mitch Ballock, Marcus Zegarowski, Davion Mintz, Damien Jefferson, Christian Bishop Expected additions: Tristan Enaruna, Sedrick Hammonds | |
| 25 |  |
| Coach: Chris Holtmann 2018-19 record: 20-15 Notable players definitely gone: CJ Jackson, Keyshawn Woods Other expected departures: N/A Notable players expected to return: Kaleb Wesson, Andre Wesson, Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington, Kyle Young, Justin Aherns, Musa Jallow, Jaedon LeDee Expected additions: DJ Carton, Alonzo Gaffney, EJ Liddel, Ibrahima Diallo, CJ Walker | |
| 26 |  |
| Coach : Bob McKillop 2018-19 record : 24-10 Notable players definitely gone : Nathan Ekwu Other expected departures : Dusan Kovacevic Notable players expected to return : Kellan Grady, Jon Axel Gudmundson, Luka Brajkovic, Luke Frampton, Kishawn Pritchett, Carter Collins, David Czerapowics, Bates Jones Expected additions : N/A | |
Top 25 And 1 analysis
Biggest Movers
2
Louisville
10
Michigan
Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | Cassius Winston's decision to return to Michigan State for his senior season was enough to keep Tom Izzo's team No. 1 in the Top 25 And 1. The Spartans are returning three of the top four scorers from a 32-win team that won the Big Ten regular-season title and Big Ten Tournament title before advancing to the Final Four. | -- | 4-1 |
| 2 | | The Blue Devils are enrolling the nation's top-ranked recruiting class for the fourth consecutive year - one that's highlighted by five-star prospects Vernon Carey, Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore. The return of Tre Jones will give Mike Krzyzewski the type of experience in the backcourt most great teams possess. | 1 | 3-1 |
| 3 | | Ashton Hagans announcing he'll return to Kentucky for his sophomore season qualified as a big development for the Wildcats. He'll be a key piece on what should be the SEC's best team. | 1 | 4-0 |
| 4 | | Jordan Nwora has declared for the NBA Draft but left open the option of returning to Louisville. If he does, he'll be the leading returning scorer for a program set to enroll a top-10 recruiting class - not to mention graduate transfer Lamarr Kimble, who averaged 15.6 points per game at Saint Joseph's this season. | 2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | | The expected loss of Bruno Fernando should mostly be offset by the return of Jalen Smith. The Terrapins will be talented and experienced and a real threat to Michigan State and Michigan at the top of the Big Ten. | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | | The loss of Coby White after one season stings a little considering he didn't project as a one-and-done prospect coming out of high school. But the enrollment of five-star guard Cole Anthony should fill any hole UNC might otherwise have in the backcourt. | 2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | | The Jayhawks aren't enrolling the type of recruiting class they typically enroll. But Kansas is returning enough to enter the season as the Big 12 favorite. | 2 | 5-0 |
| 8 | | The Zags still need to find a point guard via the transfer market. But, one way or another, Mark Few, thanks in part to a top-five recruiting class, will keep the Zags on the national radar. | 2 | 5-0 |
| 9 | | The Cavaliers are losing the top three scorers from their national championship team, all of whom are entering the NBA Draft early. But Tony Bennett still has enough to keep Virginia nationally relevant. | 7 | 3-1 |
| 10 | | Kevin Willard spoke with Virginia Tech about its opening but ultimately remained at Seton Hall. He has a roster good enough to take the Pirates to the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight year. | 1 | 3-2 |
| 11 | | In a bit of a twist, Villanova will not be the favorite to win the Big East. But the Wildcats, thanks to a top-five recruiting class, should still operate near the top of the sport. | 1 | 3-3 |
| 12 | | Jared Harper's decision to withdraw from school and enter the NBA Draft means Auburn is losing its top two scorers from a Final Four team. Bryce Brown, whose eligibility is exhausted, combined with Harper this season to average 31.2 points and 7.7 assists that must now be replaced. | 1 | 4-0 |
| 13 | | Louis King's decision to enter and remain in the NBA Draft was a blow to Oregon. But four of the top six scorers are still expected back -- and they'll pair with a top-15 recruiting class that should make the Ducks the Pac-12 favorites. | 1 | 5-0 |
| 14 | | Sean Miller, even with an NCAA cloud hovering over his program, has secured a top-five recruiting class that should return the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament. The addition of grad-transfer Max Hazzard was a nice late development. | 1 | 2-1 |
| 15 | | It appears the Wolverines are losing their top three scorers - most notably Ignas Brazdeikis. But, remember, they lost three of their top four scorers the year before and still managed to earn a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. | 10 | 4-1 |
| 16 | | Tyler Cook is determined to remain in the NBA Draft, which isn't ideal for Iowa. But the Hawkeyes are still returning four of their top-five scorers - most notably Luka Garza. | -- | 5-0 |
| 17 | | Houston reaching a deal on a contract extension for Kelvin Sampson was a massive development for the AAC program. The Cougars will be capable of winning back-to-back league titles. | -- | 2-1 |
| 18 | | The loss of Carsen Edwards is obviously a big deal. But Matt Painter has proven capable of running a competent program even when he loses key pieces. | -- | 4-1 |
| 19 | | Penny Hardaway's top-10 recruiting class, highlighted by five-star big James Wiseman, should have Memphis back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. Tyler Harris and Alex Lomax will provide adequate experience in the backcourt. | -- | 4-0 |
| 20 | | Every relevant piece from a VCU team that won the Atlantic 10 by two games should be back. That includes four players who averaged double-digits in points this season. | -- | 4-1 |
| 21 | | If Grant Williams and/or Jordan Bone return, Tennessee will be significantly higher in the Top 25 And 1. But if they both remain in the NBA Draft, as expected, the Vols will have to replace the top three scorers from a team that lost in the Sweet 16. | -- | 5-0 |
| 22 | | The Red Raiders are expected to lose four of their top five scorers - most notably Jarrett Culver early to the NBA Draft. But, remember, they lost five of their top seven scorers from last season's team, and that didn't stop Chris Beard from getting Texas Tech to this season's national title game. | -- | 4-1 |
| 23 | | The Bears are losing Makai Mason and King McClure. But they'll get Tristan Clark back and likely make the NCAA Tournament for the sixth time in a seven-year span. | -- | 4-1 |
| 24 | | The Bluejays are returning all five starters from a team that closed the season by winning seven of their final nine games. That should be enough to help Creighton advance in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. | -- | 4-0 |
| 25 | | Five of the top seven scorers from a team that spent part of last season ranked are expected back - including Kaleb Wesson, who averaged 14.6 points and 6.9 rebounds as a sophomore. Those returnees, combined with a top-15 recruiting class, should have Chris Holtmann in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth straight year. | -- | 3-1 |
| 26 | | The top six scorers from a Davidson team that finished 14-4 in the Atlantic 10 are expected back - including A-10 Player of the Year Jon Axel Gudmundson. As long as Kellan Grady stays healthy, the Wildcats will be good enough to advance in the NCAA Tournament. | -- | 3-0 |
