2026 March Madness picks: Predictions against the spread, odds for Elite Eight games Saturay

Our experts give their opinion on Saturday's Elite Eight games in the 2026 NCAA Tournament

By Chip Patterson

Mar 27, 2026 at 8:35 pm ET • 3 min read

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The road to the Final Four has reached its final stop in the South and West regions, as the 2026 NCAA Tournament has reached the Elite Eight. The champions of each region will get to cut down nets, hoist a trophy and book trips to Indianapolis to compete for a national championship next weekend. Any combination of results for Saturday night's games will provide incredible storylines for the coaches, players and programs involved. However, only two of the four teams in action will enjoy the highs of an Elite Eight win.

The first game of the night will be the South Regional Final in Houston, which is an all-Big Ten affair between No. 3 seed Illinois and No. 9 seed Iowa. It's the third All-Big Ten Elite Eight matchup in history, but first since 2000, and just the fifth Elite Eight matchup between conference foes (who were members of the same conference at the time) in the last 10 years. The familiarity is nothing new for Iowa to deal with, coming off a win against Nebraska in the Sweet 16, though lots of time has passed since the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini squared off back in early January, a 75-69 Illinois win.

Then the nightcap will feature No. 1 seed Arizona going toe-to-toe with No. 2 seed Purdue, after the Boilermakers advanced behind Trey Kaufman-Renn's heroics with a tip-in in the final seconds. The Wildcats pounded Arkansas in their Sweet 16 tilt, putting up 109 points with six players scoring 14-plus points while the team attempted just eight three-pointers. Arizona is outscoring opponents by 23.8 points per game during its current 12-game winning streak and is seeking its first Final Four appearance since 2001.

Now let's get into our favorite way to pick both games, targeting PLAYS. If more traditional straight-up and against-the-spread selections are your preference, we have included that as well, courtesy of the CBS Sports Expert Picks.

(3) Illinois vs. (9) Iowa

6:09 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live

Before the NCAA Tournament, Illinois' defense was viewed as a weakness and a potential barrier to a Final Four run. On Selection Sunday, the Fighting Illini were one of just a few teams -- along with Purdue and Vanderbilt == to rank in the top 10 of Torvik's power ratings despite a defense outside the top 20.

Since then, Illinois has posted the nation's ninth-best adjusted defensive efficiency, fueled by a trio of game plans that have forced contested jump shots without fouling. The Illini's rim protection and commitment to running shooters off the 3-point line present a strong formula for slowing Iowa's offense in what could be a physical matchup.

We lean toward a lower-scoring game overall, but the preferred angle is a more targeted look at Iowa's offense in the first half. The Hawkeyes have been highly efficient early in this tournament run, but Illinois' familiarity with Bennett Stirtz and Iowa's system could disrupt that rhythm and force coach Ben McCollum into halftime adjustments. Pick: Iowa 1H Team Total Under 30.5

	Gary Parrish	Matt Norlander	Chip Patterson	David Cobb	Cameron Salerno	Isaac Trotter
ILL -6.5	IOWA	ILL	IOWA	IOWA	IOWA	ILL
S/U	ILL	ILL	ILL	ILL	ILL	ILL

(1) Arizona vs. (2) Purdue

8:49 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live

Tommy Lloyd hasn't followed trends or strayed from his style, showing the rest of college basketball that a team doesn't need a heavy reliance on 3-point shooting to contend for a national championship.

Over the past 10 games, Arizona ranks second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 360th in 3-point rate. Even without a high volume of 3s, the Wildcats are averaging 86.8 points per game since the start of the Big 12 Tournament, a sign of an offense operating at a high level.

Purdue has not been an elite defensive team this season, and there were concerning signs in its win over Texas that may not be explained solely by the Longhorns' performance. The Boilermakers allowed both Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis to be efficient around the rim -- an issue against an Arizona team with multiple players capable of creating problems in the paint. Pick: Arizona -6.5