Bracketology Bubble Watch: Indiana's brutal loss to Northwestern drops Hoosiers to Next Four Out
Tuesday was a busy day on the bubble, and more consequential games are on tap for Wednesday

Indiana suffered a devastating loss to its NCAA Tournament hopes on Tuesday night, falling 72-68 at home to Northwestern in its third straight defeat. The first two losses in the untimely skid came on the road against elite Big Ten foes Illinois and Purdue, resulting in little real damage to the Hoosiers' resume.
This one will look a little uglier when the selection committee is evaluating whether IU is deserving of a spot in the field of 68. While it's technically a Quad 2 loss -- for now -- because Northwestern is now inside the top 75 of the NET, it brought a brutal hit to Indiana's standing in Wins Above Bubble as the Hoosiers' WAB ranking fell from No. 43 to No. 48.
WAB is a vital resume metric the selection committee uses to evaluate teams before the NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed on March 15 on CBS. The Hoosiers still have time to play themselves back onto the right side of the bubble, but Tuesday night's loss puts an even greater emphasis on Sunday's home showdown with No. 13 Michigan State on CBS.
Indiana's defeat was one of several consequential results from Tuesday night that altered the bubble picture. Among the highlights:
- TCU stayed among the "Last Four In" by edging Arizona State 90-78
- Missouri picked up a fifth Quad 1 win by beating Tennessee 73-69
- New Mexico fell 67-60 at Nevada in a pivotal Quad 1 opportunity
- USC's slide continued with an 81-62 loss at UCLA
Here's where things stand entering Wednesday's action:
Last Four In
- Missouri
- Santa Clara
- TCU
- Cal
First Four Out
- VCU
- New Mexico
- Seton Hall
- USC
Next Four Out
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model's latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Bubble teams in action on Wednesday
Texas
vs. Florida | 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the day: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 1
A 91-80 Saturday loss at Georgia snapped Texas' five-game winning streak and leaves the Longhorns entering a tough three-game stretch on a sour note. Up first is a Florida team playing some of the country's best basketball. Then comes a rivalry game at Texas A&M before a road showdown at Arkansas. If Texas can win one of those three and beat Oklahoma in the regular season finale, it should enter the SEC Tournament feeling good about its at-large chances.
Ohio State
at Iowa | 9 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
Entering the day: No. 11 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Northwestern's upset win at Indiana on Tuesday night pushed the Wildcats back into the top 75 of the NET, which means the Buckeyes' Dec. 6 win at Northwestern is now a Quad 1 win. But don't let that odd quirk of bubble life fool you into thinking the Buckeyes are suddenly safe. WAB (Wins Above Bubble) tells the selection committee more about what a team has accomplished. At 44th in that vital resume metric, Ohio State has work to do in order to feel safe. Beating Iowa would probably bring a 3-6 spot jump in WAB.
Texas A&M
at Arkansas | 9 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the day: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Texas A&M lost four straight to begin February before steadying the ship with consecutive victories over Ole Miss and Oklahoma. Winning on the road against Arkansas is a next-level "Quad 1A" challenge, but if the Aggies pull it off, they will creep awfully close to "lock" status for the Big Dance. A loss would inflict minimal damage, but it would likely mean that A&M needs to go 2-1 down the stretch to feel good when it heads to the SEC Tournament.
California
vs. SMU | 10 p.m. (ACC Network)
Entering the day: Last 4 In
Game status: Quad 2
A home game vs. SMU is hovering right on the brink of Quad 1 status. Regardless, this would mark Cal's fourth win over a squad currently "in" the CBS Sports Bracketology field as an at-large team, further elevating a resume that also includes victories over UCLA, North Carolina and Miami. But a loss would remove all margin for error for the Bears, who play a weak finishing stretch consisting of Pitt, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.
Santa Clara
at Saint Mary's | 11 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Entering the day: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 1
Santa Clara's lone Quad 1 win came at home against Saint Mary's on Jan. 17. Completing a sweep would give the Broncos some breathing room on the bubble. Regardless of what happens, Santa Clara absolutely cannot afford a Quad 4 home loss against Oregon State to close the regular season on Saturday. Not losing that game is probably more vital to its tournament chances than winning this one.
Saint Mary's
vs. Santa Clara | 11 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Entering the day: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 2
Saint Mary's does not have a single victory over an opponent currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field as an at-large team. But the final week of the regular season brings two chances as the Gaels host Santa Clara and Gonzaga. Winning either should secure a spot in the field for a team that rates surprisingly well across the spectrum of metrics used by the selection committee. Losing both could make things dicey.
San Diego State
vs. Utah State | 11 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the day:
Game status: Quad 1
San Diego State has ground to make up heading into marquee Mountain West games against Utah State and New Mexico this week. Both are the sort of Quad 1 opportunities that could bring a nice WAB boost and get the Aztecs back in the conversation. But if SDSU loses both, that will be lights out on its hopes of reaching the Big Dance in an at-large capacity.
















